Modeling Human Behavior in Vessel Maneuver Simulation by Optimal Control and Game Theory

This paper presents an innovative way to model the decision-making process of the bridge team of a ship. The model aims to provide methods to include human decision making in comprehensive simulation models that can describe the movement of vessels, including hydrodynamic effects; external effects due to wind, current, and waves; waterway geometry; and the interaction with other vessels. The paper uses a simple model to describe a vessel's dynamics and the impact of the control decisions on these dynamics, although generalization to more comprehensive maneuver models is straightforward. The mathematical modeling framework is presented on the basis of a set of behavioral assumptions. The model is described as a differential game in which the bridge team is assumed to react on the expected behavior of other vessels. Different behavioral strategies (risk prone, average risk, and neutral risk) lead to the different models described in the paper. The dynamics of the model are illustrated by simple examples. The results are plausible and clearly show the potential of the approach. The paper offers some direction for future development.