Station-Level Forecasting of Bikesharing Ridership

This study investigated the effects on bikesharing ridership levels of demographic and built environment characteristics near bikesharing stations in three operational U.S. systems. Although earlier studies focused on the analysis of a single system, the increasing availability of station-level ridership data has created the opportunity to compare experiences across systems. In this study, particular attention was paid to data quality and consistency issues raised by a multicity analysis. This project also expanded on earlier studies with the inclusion of the network effects of the size and spatial distribution of the bikesharing station network, which contributed to a more robust regression model for the prediction of station ridership. The regression analysis identified a number of variables that had statistically significant correlations with station-level bikesharing ridership: population density; retail job density; bike, walk, and transit commuters; median income; education; presence of bikeways; nonwhite population (negative association); days of precipitation (negative association); and proximity to a network of other bikesharing stations. Proximity to a greater number of other bike-sharing stations exhibited a strong positive correlation with ridership in a variety of model specifications. This finding suggested that, with the other demographic and built environment variables controlled for, access to a comprehensive network of stations was a critical factor to support ridership. Compared with earlier models, this model is more widely applicable to a diverse range of communities and can help those interested in the adoption of bikesharing systems to predict potential levels of ridership and to identify station locations that serve the greatest number of riders.