Modeling Commodity Value–Weight Trends between the United States and Its Trading Partners

Abstract

International freight transportation has grown rapidly in the past decade. Economic, technical, and market changes (such as increased Internet usage, rapid advances in information and communication technologies, and the globalization of supply chains) have been observed around the world. These changes are likely to affect the demand for freight transportation as well as the type of products shipped. International trade is conventionally expressed in terms of monetary value, but this measure cannot represent the physical nature of transportation. There is a need to relate the monetary nature of international trade to the physical nature of international freight transportation. This study considers the value–weight trends for commodity trade between the United States and her trading partners and compares the value–tonnage trends for commodities carried by different transport modes. Statistical models are developed for key commodity groups to determine value–tonnage ratio trends in different international trade routes. Value–tonnage ratios are important in identifying trends in freight generation and commodity flow. Implications of the obtained modeling results are also discussed.

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