Predicting Congestion States from Basic Safety Messages by Using Big-Data Graph Analytics

In a connected-vehicle environment, wireless subsecond data exchange connects vehicles, the infrastructure, and travelers’ mobile devices. These data have the promise to transform the geographic scope, precision, and latency of transportation system control; fulfillment of that promise could result in significant safety, mobility, and environmental benefits. However, the new data influx also has the potential to overburden legacy computational and communication systems. Although connected-vehicle technology can facilitate ubiquitous system coverage, the existing prediction methods, computational platforms, and data management methods are insufficient to process the data within a reasonable time frame for real-time predictions. An investigation of the ways in which advanced (big-data) analytics might be applied to realize the full potential of connected-vehicle technology is particularly relevant now as this technology evolves from research to deployment. This paper presents an approach combining big-data graph analytics with high-performance computing to predict traffic congestion by analyzing nearly 4 billion basic safety messages generated by the safety pilot model deployment conducted in 2012–2013. This paper provides an alternative approach for predicting congestion in 30.5-m segments anywhere on the network at 1-min intervals 30 to 60 min before actual congestion over a time window of 1 h. Despite sparseness of data, the proposed framework predicted highly congested locations 40% of the time. Severity of congestion was predicted with an accuracy of 77%. This combination of rapid computation and predictive accuracy may provide significant value in future real-time decision support systems that leverage connected-vehicle data.