Model System to Evaluate Impacts of Vehicle Purchase Tax and Fuel Tax on Household Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This paper proposes a model system to forecast household-level greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) from private transportation and evaluate the effects of car-related taxation schemes on vehicle emissions. The system contains four submodels that specifically capture households' vehicle and vintage, quantity, usage, and GHGE rates (GHGERs) by vehicle type. The vehicle GHGERs are calculated with the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator 2014, which is authorized by the Environmental Protection Agency. The whole model system was applied to the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area. The 2009 National Household Travel Survey was employed with supplementary data from Consumer Reports, American Fact Finder, and 2009 state motor vehicle registrations. The study proposed two tax schemes, vehicle purchase tax and fuel tax, and predicted their effects on reductions in vehicle GHGEs. The average annual GHGE per vehicle was 5.86 tons of carbon dioxide–equivalent gas without the proposed taxes. After two taxation policies were implemented, the results showed the following: (a) the impacts on reducing GHGEs from fuel taxes were higher than those from purchase taxes, (b) purchase taxes reduced GHGEs mainly by decreasing the number of cars of households with more vehicles, and (c) fuel taxes successfully reduced GHGEs by decreasing the use of cars by households with fewer vehicles. The model system can be extended to other zones, counties, states, and nations.