Multivariate Full Bayesian Hot Spot Identification and Ranking

The present study introduces a new technique for multivariate identification and ranking of hot spots based on the Mahalanobis distance. This approach aims to extend the univariate potential for safety improvement to cases in which multiple response variables are modeled jointly. Because the literature shows that ranking techniques based on Bayesian methods are superior to those that rely simply on the observed collision count, the proposed method was developed in a full Bayesian (FB) context. The new technique involves the following steps: (a) applying multivariate Poisson–lognormal regression models to the data by means of the FB method, (b) using the estimates of the Poisson posterior means for each site to compute the multivariate (Mahalanobis) distance from what is the normal Poisson mean for similar sites, and (c) preparing an ordered list of potentially hazardous sites. This method was applied to a sample of 173 signalized intersections in the city of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, for the years 2008 to 2012. The study also examines the consistency of the technique itself by analyzing the mathematical intersection of ranked sites identified in subsequent time periods. Finally, the consistency of the multivariate FB ranking was assessed against the independent (separate) univariate one that is still dominant in road safety evaluations.