Integrating Stochastic Failure of Road Network and Road Recovery Strategy into Planning of Goods Distribution after a Large-Scale Earthquake

Disaster relief operations are complex and can benefit greatly from a high level of preparedness. One of the main sources of complexity in disaster operations is uncertainty. An analysis of a disaster relief operation in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, preparing for the periodic Tokai–Tonankai earthquake is presented. In this study, the possible degradation of the road network is considered by including a stochastic element to represent the possibility of link failure dependent on earthquake intensity in each subregion. Also, a strategy to fix the roads is integrated into the analysis to evaluate its impact on the disaster logistics operations. The analysis is performed with the current road network of Aichi Prefecture. The results suggest the best preparation of resources and identify vulnerable destinations that are most likely to be cut off by the disaster. Also analyzed is a relocation of hubs that can reduce the total response time and take into account the possibility that some links will be destroyed. This analysis is important to help planners to evaluate their strategies, to identify vulnerable locations, and to be able to prepare in advance the best methods to deal with the uncertainty of road failure.