Dryland Degradation and Expansion: Implications for Mexican Policies from the Earth System Perspective

1 Introduction

Our planet has been suffering major changes, with increasing dryland degradation and expansion as one of the many symptoms. Drylands cover around 46.2% of the world’s land surface, 1 which (regardless of current international efforts to stop dryland expansion) illustrates a worrisome increase with respect to the last estimation of 41% published in 2005. 2 If this trend does not change, other global problems will arise, such as large-scale migration, growing poverty and famine, and increasing climate change, land degradation, conflicts, and water scarcity 3 . Although in the policy arena responding to these problems has not been easy, recent efforts such as the Earth System Governance project, have been exploring the integration of the Earth system perspective in political solutions and governance mechanisms for better addressing global change. 4 This piece aims to contribute to those existing endeavours, by exploring how the Earth system perspective can be integrated into the Mexican policies for combating desertification, and afterwards, how ’Earth system’ policies could better address dryland problems in the Anthropocene.

2 Earth System Science to Support Dryland Policies

Earth system science has supplied a new understanding of our planet, better known as the Earth system approach. 5 This approach looks at the world as a single and complex system composed of the anthroposphere, geosphere and biosphere. 6 Accordingly, this approach is key in the institutional efforts for understanding and addressing global challenges, such as dryland problems, 7 as it maps all the processes and feedback relationships among Earth system components, including the human element. 8

Although policymakers are increasingly using Earth system science terminologies, such as ‘Anthropocene’ 9 or ’planetary boundaries’ 10 to described how human action is the primary cause of global change, there are further integral challenges to be tackled when limiting and regulating human activities. 11

There are no simple solutions to solve complex global problems. However, global dryland expansion can be used as an argument that mainstream laws and policies have not been effective in stopping dryland degradation and expansion. So, it is time to design more comprehensive policies with the embedded Earth system perspective, more suitable with the current understanding of dryland problems. Of course, exploring these implications will require a more practical analysis.

3 Mexico Against Desertification

64.5% of Mexican territory is covered by dryland 12 and 92.4% 13 of these drylands are undergoing desertification. Between 1993 to 2002, 1.7 million ha of Mexican dryland was lost because of changes in their use and vegetation coverage. 14 These changes (mainly due to agriculture) have led to increased soil erosion and water overexploitation. 15 Ultimately, this has resulted in increasing desertification and dryland exposure to climate change impact. 16

After ratifying the 1994 UN Convention to Combat Desertification, 17 Mexico acquired international commitments to establish an action programme against desertification. In 2006, Mexico created a “Programme to Combat Desertification and Drought”. 18 Moreover, in 2008 it also created the Decennial Strategic Plan 2008–2018 and the National Action Plan, both to Combat Desertification. 19 Overall, the objectives of these plans and programmes were the conservation and protection of vegetation, strengthening forestry and agriculture, promoting environmental education, and restoring degraded ecosystems. 20 Specific actions included training workshops for improving agricultural sustainability, strengthening dryland monitoring, restoration of dryland vegetation, and the creation of a governmental department for combating desertification. 21 However, between 2002 to 2011, 2.3 million ha dryland was lost because of changes in their use and vegetation coverage, despite the above actions. 22

Accordingly, in the two periods above (1993–2002 and 2002–2011), dryland loss (later leading to desertification) increased by about 26%. 23 Therefore, a potential conclusion is that anti-desertification policies were not effective. Furthermore, other programmes designed with the same actions and objectives were created, 24 although, there is not up to date data on dryland loss to analyse their effectiveness. Finally, the latest effort to address desertification is the ‘Mexican programme for the promotion of sustainable land management’, launched in 2016. 25 This is a coordinated effort between the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Mexican government. However, it was only implemented in three micro regions, and given its high costs it is not clear if it can be expanded across the nation.

4 Why did these Programmes Fail?

Around 75% of dryland loss is due to agricultural activities 26 which is why some of the actions for addressing desertification were directed to achieve agricultural sustainability. Yet, the programmes described above did not consider some key aspects, shown as highly relevant by Earth system literature. For example:

The interaction of slow (e.g. soil erosion) and irregular (e.g. precipitation) variables that lead to desertification. 27

5 ‘Earth System’ Policies for Addressing Dryland Degradation and Expansion in the Anthropocene

The above highlight social and ecological complexities that were overlooked by the Mexican programmes addressing desertification. In order to integrate the Earth system perspective and better tackle these complexities, policies should consider three aspects: adaptiveness, system regulation and justice provision". Firstly, the processes of social change for responding to environmental uncertainty; henceforth referred to as ‘adaptiveness’. This will allow, natural resource-based livelihoods found in water-scarce areas, to better adapt to climate change. Avoiding natural resource overexploitation and fostering collaboration and local management is critical for achieving adaptiveness. Secondly, policies should be able to limit economic activities at least to a point where they do not surpass local social and ecological dynamics; henceforth referred to as ‘system regulation’. For instance, between 2012 to 2015, four municipalities located in northern Mexican drylands increased their agricultural frontier by 338%, in order to meet market demands. 31 This resulted in increasing water overexploitation, grassland loss, soil erosion, and conflicts over water access, significantly threatening agriculture’s continuity in the area. Policies need to foresee the social and ecological effects at the local level, resulting from agricultural production and international trade agreements. Thirdly, policies need to incorporate nature in the scope of justice, that is, policies need to be reasonable with the ecological conditions required for maintaining the structures and processes that sustain all life forms; henceforth referred to as ‘justice provision’. Conserving the ecosystems which have not been damaged by humans, is paramount for ensuring our collective future. 32 Therefore, policies need to aim for a more equitable distribution of ecosystem services between humans and nature, so drylands can maintain the structures and conditions needed for their ecological processes. Justice needs to be provided accordingly.

6 Recommendations for Policymaking in the Anthropocene

Addressing dryland problems requires better integration of policymaking and Earth system science. It is important because Earth system science has shown how human activities are the main drivers of global change, like dryland degradation and expansion. Global assessments such as the IPBES Assessment Report on Land Degradation and Restoration 33 have included Earth system research. There, it can be seen that dryland problems are shaped by complex social conditions (e.g. marginalisation) and environmental uncertainty (e.g. climate change).

Accordingly, when aiming to address complex global problems, such as dryland degradation and expansion, policies should incorporate adaptiveness, system regulation, and justice provision. Of course, there will hardly be an existing blueprint for implementation. However, we could at least start with policies (e.g. plans and programmes addressing desertification) which should be able to respond to the following four questions and provide the necessary solutions. Firstly, is the policy fostering collaboration and stakeholder participation in local decision-making and management processes? Secondly, is the policy enabling economic activities without compromising the sustainability of local livelihoods? Thirdly, is the policy considering slow variables (e.g. loss of soil fertility) and environmental uncertainties (e.g. droughts or floods)? Fourthly, is the policy foreseeing the required measures for ensuring an equitable distribution of natural resources between humans and nature?

If all the responses to those questions are yes, then it can be considered that the policies are more suitable to address global problems, such as dryland degradation and expansion in the Anthropocene epoch.