Challenges and prospects of ICT and trade development in Asia

Abstract

Information and communication technology (ICT) is crucial to the development of both developed and developing economies. China’s One Belt and One Road (OBOR) initiatives is a rather ambitious one, towards grooming ICT and economic development. This research article critically examines different challenges and prospects of the OBOR initiative of China. The OBOR initiative proposes significant potential in several fields including information technology, economic, political, cultural and strategic fields, not only for China but for the whole of Asia and Asia-Pacific.

Furthermore, this initiative may help in developing the technological trade and economic cooperation in the Asian region. The study examines different regional and global challenges faced by the initiative. The article also analyzes the future of the initiative in the light of observation and opinions of several related scholars, IT experts, political leaders, journalists, military experts and strategic analysts, and the reports of several non-governmental organizations and agencies. It is deduced from the probabilistic model proposed in the study that the future of the OBOR initiative is more liable to succeed if the factors given in the model became minimized and it will become a gateway for the development of ICT and the associated economy not only for China but for the other emerging Asian countries.

Keywords

One Belt One Road (OBOR)probabilistic model inclination of power

Zahid Latif, is a Ph.D. scholar at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, China. He has been working in telecommunication sector of Pakistan since 2003. He did his Master of Philosophy in International Relations from Peshawar University. He is the author of several publications in the field of management. His research interest fields are Information and Communication Technology, Role of ICT in the development of rural fields, One Belt, One Road, Laying of optical fiber along with China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and ICT diffusion.

Mengke Yang, is recently doing her post-doctoral research work at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, China. She has received her PhD degree in management science and engineering from BUPT, and been involved in many scientific research including national key projects and enterprise consulting projects. Her major research interests include information technology management, e-commerce and logistics.

Zulfiqar Hussain Pathan, is a Ph.D. scholar at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, China. He has been affiliated to Mehran University of Engineering & Technology, (MUET) Jamshoro, Pakistan. He got his post-graduation in the field of Technology & Innovation Management and graduation in Computer Science. His research interests are Information System, Innovative & Technological practices in Management in Public & Private Sectors, and Entrepreneurship.

Nasir Jan, is a Master student at Beijing Normal University, China. He got his graduation in the field of Economics and Management Science. His research interests are Information System, Econometrics, and Entrepreneurship.

Professor Zeng Jianqiu, obtained his Ph.D. degree from Cambridge University (England). He is a professor and a doctoral advisor in the School of Economics and Management of BUPT and also the Director of Information Economy and Competitiveness Research Center. Professor Zeng has also taken many social positions, including expert for Chinese Service Center, member of the International Team of Asian-pacific network operation and management forum, IEEE, CNOM and NOMS, Senior Consultant of China Mobile, Professor of China EMS and Tianjin Foreign Studies University, TEO of China Business Solution of Cambridge Science Park of Britain. His research fields are:competitiveness and IT industry development, enterprise consultancy and technological economic study.

1 Introduction

In a present globalized world, the economic corridors have become an important tool for regional cooperation and development [1]. The economic corridor highlights the integration of infrastructure improvement with various trade and investment economic opportunities, and it also incorporates to address the social and other outcomes of increased connectivity [2]. During the market reforms in 1970’s, People’s Republic of China has become greatly independent for its sustained welfare without seeking any foreign inflow and technology [3]. After the great global recession, China is facing several modern day problems including slow technological advancement, dropping of marginal capital product and low house hold consumption [4]. In order to tackle these problems, China has launched Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ‘AIIB’ and the BRICS 1 Bank, together with the One Belt, One Road project [5]. The One Built One Road plan was jointly released by National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Commerce of China in 2013 [6]. In this context, it is obvious that the economic and trade initiatives are becoming the main investments of China government. Consequently, China tried to build a community of shared and common destiny in the region through various economic and trade policies such as Silk Road Economic Belt and China financed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) [7].

Moreover, this initiative contains various economic trade zones, power projects and optical fiber connectivity along the proposed highway. It is beneficial for all member countries not only to develop its infrastructure and minimize the energy shortage, but it will help in developing the ICT sector through the optical fiber connectivity. China has an obvious upper hand in ICT in the globalized world. This sector of China has attracted massive investment and become a back bone in service sector. The OBOR will provide a digital spider hub for China to access the dense populated region via ICT. In the present times, the countries are largely relying on ICT and most of the developed countries are trying to strengthen this sector in order to sustain their economic growth. In the quest of oil and other natural resources, China wants to build connections with Central Asian countries via both physical and technological access. The OBOR is aimed at providing other countries road and rail access to China via sea ports to strengthen economic growth; on the other hand, fiber connectivity gives the virtual access and connectivity. Investment in ICT sector after fiber connectivity will also contribute towards employment and therefore, reducing anti-state sentiment in general public and improvement in law and order situation in the country.

The policy coordination is a primary objective for the implementation of initiative, while priority will be given to the connectivity between the member countries regarding transport infrastructure construction and establishment of cross-border optical fiber communication network. The initiative will eliminate the trade barriers and expand mutual interest and investment fields among the member countries, also will support to stabilize the common currency system in Asia by establishing the AIIB and BRICS banks. At last it will promote the cultural and academic exchanges and will increase the spirit of gracious cooperation [8].

The area covered by OBOR possesses 55% of the world GNP, 70% of the global population and 75% of the known energy reserves [9]. It, therefore, becomes a main component of the regional economic strategy of the President Xi Jinping’s foreign policy [10]. Some scholars argue that OBOR is a part of Chinese long-term Marshall Plan strategy to gain geopolitical preeminence in the Asia and Asia Pacific [11]. Moreover, in the forthcoming years, the developing Asian countries will accelerate their industrial growth, information and communication competency, and trade through different projects [12, 13].

The OBOR and AIIB projects are the examples of Beijing’s welcoming attitude towards the member countries. Moreover, some Asian countries including India and Japan are against the initiative. India, particularly, has strong reservations about it. US and few European countries have also shown their concerns about the it and considered it Beijing’s expansion policy to rise in the world. Certain regional factors such as security, corruption, political instability and ethnic conflicts can as well affect the initiative. However, in the long term, it is assumed to contribute very positively in the development of Asia.

Furthermore, the impact of the OBOR will enhance the entrance of ICT in leisure, health, retail, security and business activities. Likewise the other developments, it contributes in promoting the digital culture in e-government, e-business and e-commerce. Finally, the fiber connectivity will help in making information technology parks along with the OBOR route, which are supposed to bring an IT revolution in this region.

2 Literature review

A comprehensive definition of technology is given by Milan Zeleny, he defined the technology as; technology is neither a thing, nor a tool; it is a form of social relationship and only it can be properly understood, discussed and managed [14].

Furthermore, he argued that any technology consisted of three components, hardware, software and brain ware. All these three components are inter related and equally important having circular relationship rather than linear or hierarchical. Moreover, at different stages of technology evolution and usage, these components are over emphasized by managers, but the circle must be kept balance in a spontaneous way.

Tansakul (2013) proposes a comprehensive network to appraise cross-border trade facilitation among East-West economic corridor (EWEC) route. The research classifies the factors which can influence the trade facilitation along the economic corridor. The influencing indicators consist of infrastructure, policy, technology, and transparency, the infrastructure is graded as the most influencing factor including quality of the road, border efficiency, and language and currency. The results of the study were carried out for EWEC (R-9 Route), encompasses four ASEAN countries Myanmar, Thailand, Lao-PDR, and Vietnam, but can be utilized for other economic corridors in order to evaluate the trade facilitation [15].

Scholars from all over the world are extending their good wishes towards and high expectations from the OBOR, but the potential challenges to the initiative cannot be ignored. The report submitted by Chu (2015) in Non-governmental Organization Social Vision states,

“The main part of the project is to established the infrastructure in shape of road and railway lines, but studies proved that large cost in constructing highways and railways in rural fields in China has been considered to be waste to boost the economy due to the low income level which determines the purchasing power of people. Resultantly, these massive investments in rail and highways contribute less to GDP growth [16].

The World Bank reported the infrastructure lapse in South Asian terms of transportation, telecommunications and electricity. The report shows that 2.5 trillion $ are needed to fill this gap [17]. The OBOR has been also mentioned in the World Bank infrastructure gap report. Few scholars identify various risks, which may affect the OBOR. In this perspective, a report was published by Economist Intelligence Unit 2 (EIU) during 2015 about the risk assessment in OBOR, which highlighted several risks including political stability risk, security risk, government effectiveness risk, legal and regulatory risks, foreign trade and payment risks, tax policy risks, infrastructure risk etc.

Kennedy and Parker (2015) analyzed the risk involved in the Beijing’s OBOR initiative, stating that in the past China’s firms had been possessing a poor track record in cross-border investing, particularly, the mistreatment of local traders, which earned a bad name for China. He also mentioned the geopolitical impact of OBOR upon many stronger countries of the world including USA. During cold war era, US and Russia have a conflict on capturing the economic corridor, resultantly, Russia invaded Afghanistan in search of warm water and to find a short pathway for trade and expansion [18]. However, the Chinese companies also have bad experience of investing and working abroad. Similarly, investment in the emerging countries of Asia itself is at risk. For example, Myanmar’s Myistone Project 3 launched in 2011 remained suspended for years due to democratic reforms in Burma [19]. Also, Venezuela and China had signed an agreement in 2006 for supplying oil to China for the next three years. China, as a result, transferred 50 billion $ to Venezuela, but the supply failed due to domestic instability in the host country [20].

The data collected for methodology consists of research articles, observations and opinions of renowned scholars and experts from different countries having significant command on this field and great interest in the OBOR. After collecting the data, the author put “Bayesian Theorem” for assessing the success of the OBOR initiative. The mathematical results showed that the success ratio is 66%, while the failure ratio is about 33%, thus endorsing the project a successful one.

The article consists of the following sections; section two contains literature review, concept and origin. Section 3 provides obstacles in launching the initiative. While methodology presented in the 4 section of the study. Finally, in section 5 the conclusions are given at the end of the study.

3 One Belt, One Road: Concept and origin

3.1 In China everything is possible, nothing is easy [17, 21].

China is the populated most country of the world and most of the Asian countries particularly the Southeast Asian economies are dependent on China, as China is a key trading partner with these countries. The concept of One Belt, One Road was actually taken from the idea that the Central Asian countries situated along the old Silk Road could get advantages from well a established transport infrastructure. Because of the fact that most of the Central Asian countries have small economies with lesser potential for investment, so the overland transportation becomes expensive as compared to sea shipment. China introduced a new idea of maritime road which runs from Chinese coast through Southeast Asia to Indian ocean and then to Europe [22] (See Fig. 1). The old Silk Road connected China with the western part of civilization through the ancient trading of silk, tea and ceramics, resultantly, this brought China closer to the rest of the world [23].

Fig.1

Comparison of old and existing routes of the project Source: Xinhua, UNESCO.

In 2013, China’s President, Xi Jinping proposed the new concept of “Silk Road Economic Belt” during his visit to Central and South East Asia [24, 25],which later on was called as “One Belt and One Road” initiative (, yidai yilu). He argued, the concept will help to promote China cooperation with Central Asia and South East Asia in the field of trade, connectivity, culture and exchange. In October 2013, Prime Minister and Finance advisor of China Li Keqiang proposed that China and ASEAN countries should develop interconnection in order to promote trade environment [26]. In November 8, 2014 President Xi Jiping granted 40 billion US$ for Silk road initiative to provide infrastructure and solid platform for ICT related projects [27].

Six economic corridors has been proposed of the OBOR initiative by China [28]:

New Eurasian Land Bridge

China-Mongolia-Russia Corridor

China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor

China-Indochina Peninsula Corridor

China-Pakistan Corridor

Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor

The new Silk Road also called as wishful thinking (, yixiangqingyuan) is considered to be the opening gate of China to the world including East to West, South to Middle Asia and India to Middle East. It can be easily stated that the new Silk Road will be more open, suitable and convenient to connect China with the world. It is one of the reforms in Chinese close ideologies towards a liberal state.

The Fig. 1, shows the comparison of old and existing routes of the OBOR.

There are total 65 number of countries proposed by the Chinese media, want to share trade and information through both the overland and maritime routes [29].

In Table 1, total 65 countries are willing to participate in the China’s OBOR initiative. Here in this Table, we can see that some of the African countries also included in the OBOR, it is because that Africa remained an important member of the ancient Silk Road.

Table 1

Proposed number of countries connected via OBOR

Silk Road Economic Belt: Total 65 Countries
China	India	ASEAN	EU(28)
		(10)
Mongolia	Bangladesh	Sri Lanka	Kazakhstan
Pakistan	Uzbekistan	Tajikistan	Iran
Afghanistan	Iraq	Syria	Lebanon
Israel	Turkey	Azerbaijan	Georgia
Armenia	Ukraine	Belarus	Russia
Kenya	Egypt	Tanzania

Source: http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2015/05/29/russia-re-establishes-asian-roots-moscows-assistance-chinas-silk-road-economic-belt.html.

4 Obstacles faced to OBOR

Two ambitious projects i.e. AIIB and OBOR have now become a fundamental part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s foreign policy. Though reflecting the growing interests and brighter chances of development of China, the initiatives are facing many obstacles in their way [30]. According to Yahuda (2013), the nature of the Chinese foreign policy during the recent years is assertive and challenging the status quo of the regional order of the Asia and Asia Pacific [31]. Besides, few European scholars claim that the recent years’ ambitious initiatives (AIIB and OBOR) of Chinese diplomacy reflect the end of the Beijing Peaceful Rise Policy and is alarming the West about China’s grand chess move [32]. There are the others, who consider it as the “internationalization of Yuan”, creating alternative routes for Chinese economics in order to shape a more suitable political and secure environment for China.

Summers (2016) highlighted the two most significant factors, which can affect the China’s OBOR [33]. Firstly, Russia perceives much of this region as its own backyard thus she has its own interests and plans regarding the route. A glimpse of the fact reflected during the cold war when Russia attempted to capture this economic route in invading Afghanistan. In the recent scenario, any Russian resistance towards the economic belt will most probably be troublesome for China. Secondly, the OBOR initiatives consist of many political and commercial risks lying in infrastructure development and commercial investment in Eurasian land, Pakistan, and Central Asian republics. China, unlikely the other global investors like US, EU and Japan has a very limited investment experience in these fields. The OBOR is facing some regional difficulties like opposition of US, Japan and India, as well as the problems of corruption, local opposition, terrorism, political instability and weak institutional structure in most of the developing Asian countries [34].

5 Methodology and proposed model

In the Table and graph below we have summarize the various observations from five countries including USA, China, Russia, Pakistan and India, as they can affect the initiative to a large extent. We will take the observations and checked the probability of acceptance or rejection of the subject in the light of observations with the help of Bayes’ theorem.

With the help of Bayes’ theorem we are able to find the probability of a project [35]. In previous studies, Bayes’ theorem has been used for analyzing the probability and risk in various projects. Particularly, where government and business companies want to assess, also where sufficient data is not available about the OBOR or most relevant date is difficult to find, or When the source of risk is novel like terrorist attacks, political instability, natural disaster then the challenges faces are very severe. Bayesian theorem give a comprehensive scheme for decision making and choosing the most rational one, while on the other hand it could be used to find out risk distributions [30, 36]. This theorem is a broad spectrum theorem, also used for weighing the evidence in Juries and courts, Professor Dawid argued that, by Bayesian theorem we will be able to clearly understand the mixed evidence, which lead us to a correct decision [37].

Another interesting use of Bayes’ theorem was given by Green, he tested the Bayesian decision theorem on animal behavior, he proved that with the help of this theorem, how animals might combine previous experience to make most appropriate decision.

In the view of the above studies, in this article, we use Bayes’ theorem to predict the probability of success and failure of the initiative. For the purpose, we have taken some observations from five different countries (See Table 2 and Fig. 2) and scientifically analyzed that data and at the end with the help of Bayes’ theorem, the results and conclusions are given.

Fig.2

Observation shown in PIE chart.

Table 2

Observations taken from five countries

No. of	Country	No. of
Countries		Observations
1	USA	30
2	China	35
3	Pakistan	25
4	Russia	15
5	India	25

In Table 2, we have various observations taken from five different countries which have a significant impact in this field. The observations consist of various articles, opinion, statements of scholars, political leaders, and military officials belongs to mentioned countries.

Figure 2, shows the graphical analysis of the above observation using Pie chart given in Table 2, it shows the percentile ratio of the observations taken from the five targeted countries.

5.1 Successful initiative

It can be derived from the statements of numerous scholars, political leaders, journalists, military experts, strategic analysts and high profile dignities, and the reports of several non-governmental organizations and agencies that the route will help a great deal in up-rise of China and development of whole Asia. The literature consulted comprises of the interviews of the officials and subject experts from different countries. In fact the OBOR has been recently launched and not as much of related published literature is available, so we have mostly consulted the data available in news papers and magazines, TV interviews, and internet sources.

5.2 Unsuccessful initiative

The scholars, political leaders, journalists, military and economic experts, and non-governmental organizations and agencies, who are against the initiative, consider it as an aggression from China to capture the Asia most important route. They argue that the initiative is a failure, as few big countries like USA, Japan, India and Russia have strong allegations over the route. They predict that the development of this route seems to be an abandoned it, as it have many hindrances and will not possibly be successful.

The analysis of various observations have been analyzed descriptively, also draw a graph of these values taken in view of above observations. It gives us an imperial data for the estimated model.

Table 3 consists of the analysis of observations are shown, here the observations are divided into two groups, one group is in favor of the it and become optimistic, while the other one is against and become pessimistic about the initiative.

Table 3
Analysis of observations of five countries

Favor/Optimistic Against/Pessimistic

Country % age Country % age

USA 30 USA 70

China 90 China 10

Russia 50 Russia 50

Pakistan 90 Pakistan 10

India 10 India 90

Favor/Optimistic	Against/Pessimistic
USA	30	USA	70
China	90	China	10
Russia	50	Russia	50
Pakistan	90	Pakistan	10
India	10	India	90

Figure 3, shows graphical analysis of Table 3, the graph was drawn using the Origin software and clearly shown the ratio between the observations and countries.

Fig.3

Analysis of Observations shown in graph.

5.3 Bayes’ theorem

In this study, Bayes’ Theorem 4 for the rejection or acceptance of the OBOR initiative has been used. This theorem is widely adopted in the field of Natural and Medical Sciences as well as religious studies. It is considered as a useful tool for measuring the risk, chance and probability of any project.

The general formula of Bayes’ Theorem is given as follows: $P (H | E) = \frac{P (H) \times P (E | H)}{P (E)}$ (1)

Here P (H|E) is the probability of hypotheses H, while P (H) is the prior probability of H and P (E|H) is the likelihood of the evidence E; if H is true, P (E) is the total probability of evidence E.

It is supposed that we have two groups of observation, named block A and B respectively. The block A contains the observers from countries having an optimistic opinion, while block B contains observers from countries with a pessimistic opinion about the OBOR initiative (See Fig. 4).

Fig.4

Represents (A) China, Pakistan, and Russia (B) USA, India and Russia.

In general, the probability has two possible and one desirable outcome. The probability of two blocks lie between 0-1, 0 is impossible, while 1 is an ideal case. It is therefore, believed to be 0 < P<1. If we choose observation randomly, then there is a probability of 1/2 for each block.

Figure 4 consists of the countries having optimists and pessimists observations about the China’s OBOR. In block A, we have various observations from China, Pakistan and Russia, while in block B, we kept observations from US, India and Russia. Let’s suppose, we have a shape with two blocks, which represents all the possibilities and a total probability of 1. It has equal possibilities of acceptance and rejection, as we have only two halves A and B. In A, we have the observers having optimist opinions about OBOR represented by shaded area, while B have 50% ratio of both optimists and pessimist observations. Now, if we want to choose an observation having optimist opinions and in favor of the OBOR, it most likely falls in block A, yet we can choose B. As block A clicks first in one’s mind, it can be studied under the Bayes’ Theorem. Certain evidence can fit better way in one block than the other, thus increasing the confidence in acceptance of the model, while it has lower confidence in block B.

In this case, the possibility of A is twice times B. W can see that the probabilities of block B and A is 1/3 and 2/3 respectively. So the effect of random selection of an observation from both blocks has an increased confidence for A from 1/2 to 2/3, and decreased for B from 1/2 to 1/3. So far, it was the geometric explanation of Bayes’ theorem, while now onwards, we will prove the algebraic form of Bayes’ theorem. Algebraically it is given as: $P_{r} (B / O) = \frac{P_{r} (B) \times P_{r} (O / B)}{P_{r} (O)}$ (2)

P_r is the probability, while B contains opinion of observations and O is number of observation. In the above equation, the probability of B is 1/2, as we have only two blocks A and B. The probability of O/B is 1/2 as clear from the Fig. 4, because B has 50% ratio of both optimists and pessimist observations. The probability of observation is 3/4, as we can choose an observation from the colored blocks. Now, by putting the values in Equation (2), we get $\begin{matrix} P_{r} (B / O) = \frac{1 / 2 \times 1 / 2}{3 / 4} \end{matrix}$ (3)

By simplifying the Equation 3, we have $P_{r} (B / O) = 1 / 3$ (4)

It equals 0.3333 and is approximately become 33%.

If we draw an observer opinion form block A, then according to Fig. 1, we can use Bayes’ Theorem for measuring the probability of A as follows: $P_{r} (A / O) = \frac{P_{r} (A) \times P_{r} (O / A)}{P_{r} (O)}$ (5)

P_r is the probability, while A contains opinion of observations and O is number of observation. In the above equation, the probability of A is 1/2, as we have only two blocks A and B. The probability of O/A is 1 as clear from the Fig. 4, as all the observers in A are in favor of the initiative. The probability of observation is 3/4, as we can choose an observation from the colored blocks.

Putting values of variables in Equation (5), we get $P_{r} (A / O) = \frac{1 / 2 \times 1}{3 / 4}$ (6) $P_{r} (A / O) = 2 / 3$ (7)

It equals 0.6666 and is approximately become 66%.

5.4 Results and recommendations

The above equations summarizes that by applying the Bayes’ Theorem, we get the confidence that the success of the OBOR has the greater degree of acceptance. Group A consists of countries having positive opinion and are in favor of it, while, group B consists of countries having skeptic opinion and have reservations about the initiative (See Fig. 4). However, both group of countries acknowledged the importance of the ancient Silk Road, which brought benefits to China, Central and South Asia, Middle East and Europe in trade and infrastructure. All of the above arguments make our evidence strong and alternatively, the hypotheses become strong and the rate of acceptance become higher than the rejection. Hence, we are able to prove with the help of Bayes’ Theorem, that the OBOR project can be accepted and implemented in future.

6 Summary and conclusions

In this study, different opinions about the OBOR initiative have been identified and discussed. It is more likely that due to the OBOR and AIIB initiatives of China, and US initiated Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will lead towards regional blocks and disintegration of trade between US and China. On the other hand, the US-Sino competition will lead towards strengthening of the economic institutions by developing the trade routes throughout the whole of Asia and Asia-Pacific. Furthermore, it will give to China more confidence in reshaping the global world order.

The facts and Figures outlined in this article show that, due to the initiative of OBOR the balance of technology and growth is drifting slowly and gradually towards Asia from Europe. Asia is a dense populated region with more than 2.8 billion people, living in a land fertile for IT and communication industry, with cheap labor and capital, rich raw resources and tremendous absorbing capacity for new technologies and developments. All these factors are molding the situation in favor of emerging Asian countries and will probably shift the regional balance towards Asia.

On the basis of the above facts, it can be assumed that in the next two decades, the emerging Asian countries may stand as the strongest opponents to the US supremacy in Asia and Asia Pacific. Finally, the study can be considered as unique as it critically assesses the future of the One Belt, One Road initiative and provides immense scope for the future studies on this hot topic. As factors analyzed in this study, can give affective guidelines for countries associated with the initiative.

Conflicts of interest

The authors affirm no conflicts of interest.

Footnotes

BRICS consists of big and emerging countries of the world including Brazil, India, China, Russia and South Africa.

Economist Intelligence Unit is an independent research and analysis organization. It published a report about OBOR project, which highlighted various risks faced by OBOR.

China-Myanmar signed several agreements in 2010 with a collectively amounted more than 8 billion $, including Myistone Dam Project.

The concept of Bayes’ theorem was given by British mathematician Thomas Bayes (1702-1761) in the 18th century.

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