The research into screening crisis early warning indicators of supply chain quality based on fuzzy inference system

Abstract

The initial crisis early warning index system of the supply chain quality has been built up according to crisis inducement, documentary research and corporate research. Then we evaluated the feasibility, importance, independence of the index system by using experts scoring methodology. The initial crisis early warning index system has been filtered by fuzzy inference system (FIS) and the final crisis early warning index system has been established.

Keywords

Supply chain quality crisis early warning early warning index crisis inducement

1. Introduction

The quality of supply chain reflects the degree of supply chain system to meet customer demand in terms of product logistics, information flow and capital flow [1]. If problems occur in any part of logistics, information flow and capital flow, the supply chain can be broken. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the crisis early warning management of supply chain quality. In the case of crisis early warning, the construction of crisis early warning index system is the first step. With a scientific and reasonable index system, we can lay a good foundation for future research. The supply chain is a large and complex system with many variables and complex features. For comprehensively, objectively, effectively and accurately assessing the crisis situation of supply chain quality, a scientific crisis warning index system which can fully reflect the characteristics of the supply chain quality crisis is necessary.

2. Establishe initial crisis early warning index system of supply chain quality

2.1. Indicators extracted from the literature

The literature on supply chain quality, supply chain robustness, supply chain crisis, supply chain risk and supply chain performance evaluation is searched through databases such as zhiwang, wanfang, Elsevier, Emeral, IEL. The relevant literature has demonstrated the influence factors such as supply chain operation and supply chain risk, and extracted the evaluation indexes related to the supply chain quality, and sorted out these indicators. As for the expression meaning, the combination of different statements, such as the same meaning of the profitability of investments and the return on assets, will be unified as the return on assets when the index is extracted.

2.2. The indicators obtained from enterprise research

This part obtain the corresponding evaluation index through the enterprise recognizes the crisis inducement of the supply chain quality. Limited conditions, this paper presents an in depth investigation and research on nice core enterprises of supply chain in fuzhou and xiamen, including 3 textile enterprises, 3 automobile manufacturing enterprises and 3 logistics enterprises. These supply chains, where the enterprises are, are known locally, and have set up supply chain crisis early warning system. The research adopt interview method, interview object is the management of the company and the main business manager.

Based on previous information on the crisis early warning of supply chain quality, an interview outline for the incentive identification of supply chain quality crisis is established. According to the outline, ask questions and learn more about the situation. These common indicators extracted from the nine supply chain quality crisis inducement information.

2.3. Establishe initial crisis early warning index system of the supply chain quality

The crisis early warning indexs extracted from the above two steps are sorted out, and the indexs that are obviously repeated or contained are merged. They are classified according to the supply chain quality crisis inducements, which is the initial index system, see Table 1.

Table 1
The initial crisis early warning index system of the supply chain quality

No. indicator

Inducement of External Incentive

1 political stability and government intervention

2 the impact degree of industry

3 macroeconomic situation

4 nature disaster

Inducement of Operation Capacity

5 turnover of inventory

6 turnover of account receivable

7 total assets growth rate

8 current asset turnover

9 profit growth rate

10 cash cycle

11 number of turnovers of current capital

12 bad asset ratio

13 total assets turnover

Inducement of Profit Ability

14 hedging and proliferating ratios

15 return on equity

16 the return on assets

17 sales growth

18 net profit rate

19 rate of return on investment

20 return on sales

Inducement of Debt Paying Ability

21 liquidity ratio

22 quick ratio

23 cash flow liquidity ratio

24 assetliability ratio

Inducement of Information Flow

25 the timely information transfer rate among node enterprises

26 the accurately information transfer rate among node enterprises

27 the frequency of informational communication among node enterprises

28 information system capability of the supply chain (information system improvement, coverage and access path)

29 information asymmetry, information leakage or dela

30 information system integration capability among node enterprises

31 information communication among node enterprises

32 information sharing level among node enterprises

33 the coordination of protection of IPR

34 enterprise data storage and transmission failure degree

35 major failure rate of enterprise information technology and equipment

Inducement of Logistics

36 process smoothness of supply chain

37 transport delay rate among node enterprises

38 the damage rate of the goods

39 risk in transit

40 the delivery error rate

41 return handling error rate

42 transportation costs account for total sales

43 stockout rate

44 shortage of raw materials and finished goods

45 not strictly inventory control

46 inventory target rate

47 rate of capacity utilization

Inducement of Supply

48 the suppliers’s on time delivery(OTD)

49 the suppliers’s qualified rate of product quality

50 the supplier provides the stability of the product quality

51 supplier reliability (supplier failure or opportunistic behavior, etc.)

52 the suppliers’s product order satisfaction rate

53 close cooperation between suppliers

54 supplier evaluation (establishment of supplier evaluation system)

55 supplier qualification rate

No. indicator

56 fluctuations in raw material prices

57 the supplier is not productive or idle

58 supplier flexibility (ability to meet changing demand for downstream orders)

59 key suppliers’s bankruptcy and losses

Inducement of Internal Management

60 responsibility of supply chain members

61 employee satisfaction

62 distributive justiceamong node enterprises

63 the rationality and stability of the supply chain structure

64 the rate of change of supply chain members

65 the complete rate of supply chain management system and management standard

66 influence of core enterprises (control ability)

67 standard supply chain organization alliance and clear management philosophy

68 risk responsiveness and the effectiveness of the risk response mechanism

69 customer relationship management capability

70 the value chain is not integrated properly

71 the unrealized ratio of the target of the supply chain

72 the stability of the software system in the supply chain

73 labor disputes and brain drain

74 the supply chain has a high turnover rate

75 supply chain total labor productivity

76 the adjustment frequency and adjustment degree of supply chain plan

77 the extent of the plan

78 production accident rate

Inducement of Time

79 discovery opportunity time

80 time of developing

81 the time of the new product launch

82 customer respond time

83 efficiency of production cycle and the transfer time

84 time flexibility

85 production lead time fluctuation

86 processing time of customer complaint

Inducement of Learning and growth

87 the ratio of technology inputs

88 training expenditures ratio

89 technical risk

90 new product contribution rate

Inducement of Cooperation

91 the production demand rate of the nodes

92 the core enterprise accounts for the proportion of the supplier’s business

93 the core enterprise accounts for the proportion of the distributor’s business

94 the coordination among node enterprises

95 the loss of credibility and credit of the main cooperative enterprises

96 the supply chain strategy is unscientific

97 strategic alignment among node enterprises

98 the relationship and coordination degree of enterprise culture among node enterprises

Inducement of Demand and Market

99 core enterprise’s market share

100 customer-keeping ratio

101 core enterprise customer loyalty

102 core enterprise customer satisfaction

103 market risk

104 the core enterprise market forecasts are inaccurate

105 brand awareness

106 the adequacy of the core enterprise market research and the accuracy of positioning

107 perfect order fill rate

108 final product qualification rate

109 core enterprise’s sales rate

110 deterioration of client’s financial condition or bankruptcy

111 the proportion of orders delivered on time

112 fulfillment rate

No.	indicator
	Inducement of External Incentive
1	political stability and government intervention
2	the impact degree of industry
3	macroeconomic situation
4	nature disaster
	Inducement of Operation Capacity
5	turnover of inventory
6	turnover of account receivable
7	total assets growth rate
8	current asset turnover
9	profit growth rate
10	cash cycle
11	number of turnovers of current capital
12	bad asset ratio
13	total assets turnover
	Inducement of Profit Ability
14	hedging and proliferating ratios
15	return on equity
16	the return on assets
17	sales growth
18	net profit rate
19	rate of return on investment
20	return on sales
	Inducement of Debt Paying Ability
21	liquidity ratio
22	quick ratio
23	cash flow liquidity ratio
24	assetliability ratio
	Inducement of Information Flow
25	the timely information transfer rate among node enterprises
26	the accurately information transfer rate among node enterprises
27	the frequency of informational communication among node enterprises
28	information system capability of the supply chain (information system improvement, coverage and access path)
29	information asymmetry, information leakage or dela
30	information system integration capability among node enterprises
31	information communication among node enterprises
32	information sharing level among node enterprises
33	the coordination of protection of IPR
34	enterprise data storage and transmission failure degree
35	major failure rate of enterprise information technology and equipment
	Inducement of Logistics
36	process smoothness of supply chain
37	transport delay rate among node enterprises
38	the damage rate of the goods
39	risk in transit
40	the delivery error rate
41	return handling error rate
42	transportation costs account for total sales
43	stockout rate
44	shortage of raw materials and finished goods
45	not strictly inventory control
46	inventory target rate
47	rate of capacity utilization
	Inducement of Supply
48	the suppliers’s on time delivery(OTD)
49	the suppliers’s qualified rate of product quality
50	the supplier provides the stability of the product quality
51	supplier reliability (supplier failure or opportunistic behavior, etc.)
52	the suppliers’s product order satisfaction rate
53	close cooperation between suppliers
54	supplier evaluation (establishment of supplier evaluation system)
55	supplier qualification rate
No.	indicator
56	fluctuations in raw material prices
57	the supplier is not productive or idle
58	supplier flexibility (ability to meet changing demand for downstream orders)
59	key suppliers’s bankruptcy and losses
	Inducement of Internal Management
60	responsibility of supply chain members
61	employee satisfaction
62	distributive justiceamong node enterprises
63	the rationality and stability of the supply chain structure
64	the rate of change of supply chain members
65	the complete rate of supply chain management system and management standard
66	influence of core enterprises (control ability)
67	standard supply chain organization alliance and clear management philosophy
68	risk responsiveness and the effectiveness of the risk response mechanism
69	customer relationship management capability
70	the value chain is not integrated properly
71	the unrealized ratio of the target of the supply chain
72	the stability of the software system in the supply chain
73	labor disputes and brain drain
74	the supply chain has a high turnover rate
75	supply chain total labor productivity
76	the adjustment frequency and adjustment degree of supply chain plan
77	the extent of the plan
78	production accident rate
	Inducement of Time
79	discovery opportunity time
80	time of developing
81	the time of the new product launch
82	customer respond time
83	efficiency of production cycle and the transfer time
84	time flexibility
85	production lead time fluctuation
86	processing time of customer complaint
	Inducement of Learning and growth
87	the ratio of technology inputs
88	training expenditures ratio
89	technical risk
90	new product contribution rate
	Inducement of Cooperation
91	the production demand rate of the nodes
92	the core enterprise accounts for the proportion of the supplier’s business
93	the core enterprise accounts for the proportion of the distributor’s business
94	the coordination among node enterprises
95	the loss of credibility and credit of the main cooperative enterprises
96	the supply chain strategy is unscientific
97	strategic alignment among node enterprises
98	the relationship and coordination degree of enterprise culture among node enterprises
	Inducement of Demand and Market
99	core enterprise’s market share
100	customer-keeping ratio
101	core enterprise customer loyalty
102	core enterprise customer satisfaction
103	market risk
104	the core enterprise market forecasts are inaccurate
105	brand awareness
106	the adequacy of the core enterprise market research and the accuracy of positioning
107	perfect order fill rate
108	final product qualification rate
109	core enterprise’s sales rate
110	deterioration of client’s financial condition or bankruptcy
111	the proportion of orders delivered on time
112	fulfillment rate

3. Fuzzy inference system

Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) is also known as Fuzzy System, which is based on Fuzzy set theory and Fuzzy Inference method, and has the ability to deal with Fuzzy information. The description and characterization of fuzzy systems are based on natural language, and the rules of inference are more closely related to human thought habits. It doesn’t require an exact mathematical model, and not sensitive to the change of object parameters, it has strong robustness. In terms of function, FIS is mainly composed of fuzziness, fuzzy rule base, fuzzy reasoning and defuzzification. Its basic structure is shown in Fig. 1, and its working process is as follows.

Step 1. Fuzz the input variable. The precision of the input is blurred by the fuzzy module, and transform into a given fuzzy set.

Step 2. Activate the corresponding fuzzy rules in the fuzzy rule base. The fuzzy operator is applied in the premises of fuzzy rules(AND-OR-NOT).

Step 3. Using the appropriate fuzzy reasoning method, the inference result is obtained based on the known fuzzy facts.

Step 4. The fuzzy results are defuzzification to get the final accurate output variable.

Supply chain quality is a fuzzy concept, so the crisis early warning index system of supply chain quality can be regarded as a fuzzy set, the each indicator as one of the elements, its membership is analyzed. In this paper, the index is analyzed by Matlab fuzzy toolbox.

Fig. 1.

The basic structure of FIS.

4. Data collection

To enhance the rationality and scientificity of the index, the expert selection method is adopted to perfect the index. Experts evaluate the feasibility, importance and independence of the indicators, then select the indexes according to the membership degree obtained by the fuzzy inference system.

4.1. Expert choice

In order to make the expert data more objective and comprehensive, this study invited 10 experts to investigate, of which five from the university supply chain management professional professor, the other five is selected from the previous research enterprises in the high-level managers. Surveyed by questionnaires, and received 10 ratings.

4.2. Questionnaire design and data collection

The purpose of this questionnaire is to allow the experts to score the initial warning index system of the supply chain quality, evaluate the feasibility, importance and independence of the indicators. “Feasibility” is the degree of feasibility of the indicators used to evaluate the supply chain quality and the degree of “universality” in different supply chains. “Importance” is whether the indicators are important in crisis early warning index system of supply chain quality, and the degree of effectiveness of its assessment and its warning purposes. “Independence” refers to the degree of duplication or inclusion between indicators, and the need for indicators to exist.

The questionnaire take the initial index system as the problem item. Experts evaluate the index in terms of “feasibility”, “importance” and “independence”. The single score has 1–5 grades, representing the degree of strength of each property. After the questionnaires collected, the arithmetic mean of each indicator in different properties is calculated, which is the score of the index on that attribute.

5. Index selection based on FIS

5.1. The determination of fuzzy rules

In order to use fuzzy reasoning to analyze the selection of indexes, a fuzzy inference system is needed first. The system input is the feasibility, independence and importance of the index. Output is the discard, discussion and retention of the index, and its corresponding output value is [1, 2], (2, 3.5], and (3.5, 5) respectively. FIS fuzzy rules are designed in this paper as Table 2.

Table 2
FIS rules

No. FIS rules output

1 If the index is not “not feasibility” and not “not independence” and not “not importance” Then “retention”

2 If the index is “not feasibility”and “independence” and “importance” Then “discussion”

3 If the index is “not feasibility”and not “independence” Then “discard”

4 If the index is “not feasibility”and “independence” and not “importance” Then “discard”

5 If the index is “moderate feasibility” and “not independence”and “importance” Then “retention”

6 If the index is “moderate feasibility” and “not independence” and “moderate importance” Then “discussion”

7 If the index is “moderate feasibility” and “not independence”and “not importance” Then “discard”

8 If the index is “moderate feasibility” and “moderate independence” and “not importance” Then “discard”

9 If the index is “moderate feasibility” and “independence” and “not importance” Then “discard”

10 If the index is “feasibility” and “not independence”and not “not importance” Then “discussion”

11 If the index is “feasibility” and “not independence”and “not importance” Then “discard”

12 If the index is “feasibility” and “independence” and “not importance” Then “discussion”

13 If the index is “feasibility” and “moderate independence” and “not importance” Then “discussion”

No.	FIS rules	output
1	If the index is not “not feasibility” and not “not independence” and not “not importance”	Then “retention”
2	If the index is “not feasibility”and “independence” and “importance”	Then “discussion”
3	If the index is “not feasibility”and not “independence”	Then “discard”
4	If the index is “not feasibility”and “independence” and not “importance”	Then “discard”
5	If the index is “moderate feasibility” and “not independence”and “importance”	Then “retention”
6	If the index is “moderate feasibility” and “not independence” and “moderate importance”	Then “discussion”
7	If the index is “moderate feasibility” and “not independence”and “not importance”	Then “discard”
8	If the index is “moderate feasibility” and “moderate independence” and “not importance”	Then “discard”
9	If the index is “moderate feasibility” and “independence” and “not importance”	Then “discard”
10	If the index is “feasibility” and “not independence”and not “not importance”	Then “discussion”
11	If the index is “feasibility” and “not independence”and “not importance”	Then “discard”
12	If the index is “feasibility” and “independence” and “not importance”	Then “discussion”
13	If the index is “feasibility” and “moderate independence” and “not importance”	Then “discussion”

5.2. Using Matlab fuzzy toolbox GUI to establish fuzzy inference system

This section uses the Matlab fuzzy toolbox graphical user interface (GUI) to establish the fuzzy inference system to obtain the membership of each index. The process is as follows.

5.2.1. I/O Settings

Enter “fuzzy” in Matlab environment, call FIS editor, and defines three input variables: “feasibility”, “independence”, “importance”, and define an output “output1”.

5.2.2. Edit membership functions

The membership function of this paper adopts gaussian type membership function. Gauss membership function method is a kind of fuzzy method. This kind of fuzzy method has good anti-interference ability, and the fuzzy results are more closely related to the cognitive characteristics of people.

Set the input range of the input variable “feasibility” to [1 5], the membership functions are named as “not feasibility”, “moderate feasibility”and “feasibility”, and set up corresponding function parameters: [0.68 1], [0.68 3] and [0.68 5]. The membership function of the variable feasibility is shown in Fig. 2. Similarly, we can set up the membership function of variable “independence” and “importance” by the above steps.

Fig. 2.

The membership function diagram of the variable feasibility.

The parameters of “discard”, “discussion” and “retention” of the variable “output1” are set as [0.68 1], [0.5 2.75] and [1 5].

5.2.3. Establish rules of inference

Set the parameter according to the fuzzy rules designed in Table 2.

5.1. Screen initial index system based on FIS

According to the data of each index sorted out, the value of the membership degree of each indicator is calculated by using Matlab tool, as shown in Table 3.

As can be seen from Table 3, the membership of number 10, 11, 13, 14, 20, 28, 29, 33, 34, 35, 42, 47, 52, 54, 55, 56, 57, 60, 61, 65, 67, 69, 71, 73, 71, 71, 79, 81, 83, 96, 103, 105 is equal to 2 or less, which is eliminated directly. For the index of membership in (2, 3.5], we discuss the elimination, merger and retention.

Table 3
Index membership

indicator 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

membership 4.20 3.90 3.89 3.92 4.55 4.00 3.00 3.45 3.10 1.51 1.82 2.21 1.92 1.97 4.89 2.01

indicator 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

membership 3.61 2.12 2.00 1.98 2.11 2.21 3.62 4.51 4.11 4.21 3.51 1.11 1.12 1.53 3.21 3.12

indicator 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

membership 1.01 1.02 1.98 2.05 2.13 2.52 2.34 3.34 3.26 1.01 3.44 3.22 3.87 3.22 1.02 4.89

indicator 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64

membership 3.50 3.49 2.23 1.91 3.49 1.99 1.97 1.89 1.45 2.01 3.50 1.78 1.49 4.89 4.92 4.36

indicator 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80

membership 2.00 3.67 1.99 4.10 1.76 2.02 1.23 2.03 1.99 2.02 3.56 1.66 1.22 2.01 2.00 2.01

indicator 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

membership 1.68 4.02 2.00 3.02 2.02 3.53 3.01 3.56 3.01 3.65 2.01 2.45 2.34 4.02 3.34 1.23

indicator 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112

membership 3.56 4.52 3.23 4.01 3.45 3.49 1.28 3.31 1.09 3.00 4.02 3.09 2.89 2.10 3.45 3.39

indicator	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
membership	4.20	3.90	3.89	3.92	4.55	4.00	3.00	3.45	3.10	1.51	1.82	2.21	1.92	1.97	4.89	2.01
indicator	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
membership	3.61	2.12	2.00	1.98	2.11	2.21	3.62	4.51	4.11	4.21	3.51	1.11	1.12	1.53	3.21	3.12
indicator	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48
membership	1.01	1.02	1.98	2.05	2.13	2.52	2.34	3.34	3.26	1.01	3.44	3.22	3.87	3.22	1.02	4.89
indicator	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64
membership	3.50	3.49	2.23	1.91	3.49	1.99	1.97	1.89	1.45	2.01	3.50	1.78	1.49	4.89	4.92	4.36
indicator	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80
membership	2.00	3.67	1.99	4.10	1.76	2.02	1.23	2.03	1.99	2.02	3.56	1.66	1.22	2.01	2.00	2.01
indicator	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96
membership	1.68	4.02	2.00	3.02	2.02	3.53	3.01	3.56	3.01	3.65	2.01	2.45	2.34	4.02	3.34	1.23
indicator	97	98	99	100	101	102	103	104	105	106	107	108	109	110	111	112
membership	3.56	4.52	3.23	4.01	3.45	3.49	1.28	3.31	1.09	3.00	4.02	3.09	2.89	2.10	3.45	3.39

The membership degree of “current asset turnover” is 3.45. The index is closely related to “turnover of inventory” and “turnover of account receivable”, which can be reflected by these two indexes. So after discussion decide to abandon it. “Information communication among node enterprises” and “information sharing level among node enterprises” can be reflected by “the timely and accurately information transfer rate among node enterprises” and “the frequency of informational communication among node enterprises”, delete them. “Transport delay rate among node enterprises”, ”the damage rate of the goods” and “risk in transit” is due to transportation control is lax, After discussion, the three indicators are merged into “transport control errors”. “The delivery error rate” and “return handling error rate” are all due to the problem of the order management, merged into “order disposal failure”. The “key suppliers’s bankruptcy and losses” is 3.50 but experts believe that the index has a huge impact on the crisis of supply chain quality, so keep it.

5.4. Establish crisis early warning index system of the supply chain quality

After the screening of the fuzzy inference system, the effect of the supply chain quality crisis warning index system and the warning index is shown in Table 4.

Table 4
The crisis early warning index system of the supply chain quality

first class indicator second class indicators forewarning function

inducement of external incentive nature disaster When great changes occur in the natural environment, members of the supply chain are informed of the extent of their impact early and respond in a timely manner.

macroeconomic situation Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis due to economic fluctuation.

political stability and government intervention Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by political stability and government intervention.

the impact degree of industry Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis induced by industry and industry restriction.

financial incentive turnover of inventory Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by insufficient operation capacity of supply chain.

turnover of account receivable

return on equity Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis induced by insufficient profitability of supply chain.

sales growth Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis due to supply chain growth and lack of development capacity.

quick ratio Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis induced by the shortage of short-term solvency of supply chain.

asset-liability ratio Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis induced by the shortage of long-term solvency of supply chain.

inducement of information flow the timely information transfer rate among node enterprises Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis due to information transmission is not timely, information transmission accuracy is low or information exchange is not frequent among node enterprises.

the accurately information transfer rate among node enterprises

the frequency of informational communication among node enterprises

inducement of logistics not strictly inventory control Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from inventory control error in enterprises on supply chain.

transport control error Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by traffic control errors such as the delay of transportation, the damage of the transportation process and the error of transportation.

order disposal failure Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from the mistake of internal order management.

inducement of supply the suppliers’s on time delivery(OTD) Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from the supplier cannot deliver the goods on time because of the lack of production capacity and production management.

the suppliers’s quality of products Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by supplier quality is not reliable.

key suppliers’s bankruptcy and losses Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by the loss or failure of key suppliers destabilizes the supply chain.

inducement of internal management the supply chain structure rationality Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from that the supply chain depends on a few large customers and a small number of suppliers, with a high turnover rate.

the supply chain structure stability

the influence and control ability of the core enterprise Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by the loss of influence and control ability of core enterprises.

emergency response system of supply chain risk Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from that the supply chain has not established the risk emergency response mechanism and has lost the ability of emergency handling.

overall labour productivity Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by ignoring production process.

inducement of time processing time of customer complaint This indicator reflects the quality of customer complaints and the timeliness of customer complaints. Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by the customer’s dissatisfaction with the after-sales service.

customer response time Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from the customer response time is too long to affect customer service level.

inducement of learning and growth income ratio of new product(service) Pre-warning of the supply chain lacks new product (services) research and development capabilities and integrated marketing capabilities for new products (services).

training expenditures ratio It reflects the learning and growth ability of the supply chain, warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by the loss of learning and growth capacity of supply chain.

inducement of cooperation the equitable degree of the value distribution among node enterprises The supply chain quality crisis caused by the unequal distribution of profit among supply chain members.

the coordination of supply chain culture Cultural friction is the root cause of the loss and inefficiency of supply chain market opportunities, thus making the supply chain difficult to realize the expected benefit. It is used to warn about crisis in cultural problems faced by transnational people, or the neglect of cultural friction by managers.

strategic alignment among node enterprises Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from the different strategic goals of supply chain members, strategic target conflict.

the coordination among node enterprises Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by the decline of the supply chain cooperation ability because of the mutual distrust and mutual incoordination among supply chain members.

inducement of demand and market core enterprise’s market share To evaluate the market situation of products, warning the supply chain crisis caused by the product not competitive.

core enterprise’s customer satisfaction This indicator reflects the customer’s assessment of the organization, which can reflect the potential risk factors of product quality and service, warning crisis caused by the customers.

customer-keeping ratio This index reflects the degree of supply chain to existing customer resources. It reflects the quality of supply chain products or service and the social effect of brand. It is used to warn about crisis in brand management and customer management.

inexactly market forecast The supply chain can not meet the expected target of the supply chain quality due to the uncertainty of commodity demand and commodity price forecast.

perfect order fill rate Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis because supply chain members cannot timely, quality and guarantee to complete customer orders.

first class indicator	second class indicators	forewarning function
inducement of external incentive	nature disaster	When great changes occur in the natural environment, members of the supply chain are informed of the extent of their impact early and respond in a timely manner.
	macroeconomic situation	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis due to economic fluctuation.
	political stability and government intervention	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by political stability and government intervention.
	the impact degree of industry	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis induced by industry and industry restriction.
financial incentive	turnover of inventory	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by insufficient operation capacity of supply chain.
	turnover of account receivable
	return on equity	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis induced by insufficient profitability of supply chain.
	sales growth	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis due to supply chain growth and lack of development capacity.
	quick ratio	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis induced by the shortage of short-term solvency of supply chain.
	asset-liability ratio	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis induced by the shortage of long-term solvency of supply chain.
inducement of information flow	the timely information transfer rate among node enterprises	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis due to information transmission is not timely, information transmission accuracy is low or information exchange is not frequent among node enterprises.
	the accurately information transfer rate among node enterprises
	the frequency of informational communication among node enterprises
inducement of logistics	not strictly inventory control	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from inventory control error in enterprises on supply chain.
	transport control error	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by traffic control errors such as the delay of transportation, the damage of the transportation process and the error of transportation.
	order disposal failure	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from the mistake of internal order management.
inducement of supply	the suppliers’s on time delivery(OTD)	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from the supplier cannot deliver the goods on time because of the lack of production capacity and production management.
	the suppliers’s quality of products	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by supplier quality is not reliable.
	key suppliers’s bankruptcy and losses	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by the loss or failure of key suppliers destabilizes the supply chain.
inducement of internal management	the supply chain structure rationality	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from that the supply chain depends on a few large customers and a small number of suppliers, with a high turnover rate.
	the supply chain structure stability
	the influence and control ability of the core enterprise	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by the loss of influence and control ability of core enterprises.
	emergency response system of supply chain risk	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from that the supply chain has not established the risk emergency response mechanism and has lost the ability of emergency handling.
	overall labour productivity	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by ignoring production process.
inducement of time	processing time of customer complaint	This indicator reflects the quality of customer complaints and the timeliness of customer complaints. Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by the customer’s dissatisfaction with the after-sales service.
	customer response time	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from the customer response time is too long to affect customer service level.
inducement of learning and growth	income ratio of new product(service)	Pre-warning of the supply chain lacks new product (services) research and development capabilities and integrated marketing capabilities for new products (services).
	training expenditures ratio	It reflects the learning and growth ability of the supply chain, warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by the loss of learning and growth capacity of supply chain.
inducement of cooperation	the equitable degree of the value distribution among node enterprises	The supply chain quality crisis caused by the unequal distribution of profit among supply chain members.
	the coordination of supply chain culture	Cultural friction is the root cause of the loss and inefficiency of supply chain market opportunities, thus making the supply chain difficult to realize the expected benefit. It is used to warn about crisis in cultural problems faced by transnational people, or the neglect of cultural friction by managers.
	strategic alignment among node enterprises	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis resulted from the different strategic goals of supply chain members, strategic target conflict.
	the coordination among node enterprises	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis caused by the decline of the supply chain cooperation ability because of the mutual distrust and mutual incoordination among supply chain members.
inducement of demand and market	core enterprise’s market share	To evaluate the market situation of products, warning the supply chain crisis caused by the product not competitive.
	core enterprise’s customer satisfaction	This indicator reflects the customer’s assessment of the organization, which can reflect the potential risk factors of product quality and service, warning crisis caused by the customers.
	customer-keeping ratio	This index reflects the degree of supply chain to existing customer resources. It reflects the quality of supply chain products or service and the social effect of brand. It is used to warn about crisis in brand management and customer management.
	inexactly market forecast	The supply chain can not meet the expected target of the supply chain quality due to the uncertainty of commodity demand and commodity price forecast.
	perfect order fill rate	Pre-warning of the supply chain quality crisis because supply chain members cannot timely, quality and guarantee to complete customer orders.

6. Conclusion

The competition of the new century is the competition between the supply chain, and the quality of the supply chain directly affects the success or failure of the members of the supply chain. Therefore, supply chain members must establish a supply chain quality crisis warning system to grasp the crisis situation of the supply chain quality in order to take timely measures to eliminate potential crises.

The key of the early warning model is the selection of indicators. Based on a large number of related literatures and enterprises, this paper establishes an initial warning index system. Questionnaire is designed according to these initial warning indicators. Let the experts evaluate the feasibility, importance and independence of these indicators. Then apply FIS for screening to get 37 indicators, constituting the index system of the crisis early warning model. The model does not determine the weight of each indicator and the range of safety values of each indicator, which is the focus of future research.

Footnotes

Acknowledgments

This paper is supported by Education and Scientific Research Base Special Project of the 13th Five-Year Plan of Fujian Provincial Science of Education (No.FJJKCG18-109).

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