Abstract
The objective of this paper is to establish some reliability models for redundant systems based on the assumption that the conversion switches are imperfect and distribution parameters are uncertain variables. Some new concepts of random uncertain distributions associated with random uncertain variables are proposed, which are applied to redundant series-parallel systems, including cold redundant system and warm redundant system. In each type of redundant system, we consider two methods to describe the switch lifetimes: random uncertain 0-1 switch lifetime and random uncertain geometric switch lifetime. The reliability and the mean time to failure of these systems are analyzed. Some numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the proposed reliability models and perform a comparison for the system models with uncertain parameters and constant parameters.
Introduction
System reliability theory takes the lifetime characteristic of a system as the main research object, which is important in product analysis. For unrepairable system, the reliability function and mean time to failure (MTTF) are the main indicators for describing the reliability characteristics. The traditional reliability theory [1–5] has been widely and successfully used for solving various reliability problems, in which the lifetimes of the units or systems are assumed as non-negative random variables. The probability theory is the main mathematical tool to study this kind of problem.
Probability theory has a particularly wide range of applications in science and engineering, however, the application of probability theory requires that the estimated probability is close enough to the real frequency. In practical, there are usually lack of observed data for technical or some other reasons, obviously, it is not suitable to use probability theory to deal with such cases. In 1965, Zadeh [6] proposed fuzzy theory as a tool to deal with such matters, and some concepts of fuzzy sets were initiated. Thus, lots of researchers devoted to analyzing system reliability based on fuzzy theory, such as Onisawa [7], Park [8], Cai et al. [9], and so on.
Although probability theory and fuzzy theory have been extensively applied in reliability analysis, a lot of surveys showed that many uncertainty behaves were neither randomness nor fuzziness. In order to deal with human uncertainty phenomena, Liu [10] founded the uncertainty theory in 2007 and Liu [11] refined it in 2010. Numerous concepts of fundamentals were proposed by Liu in [10], such as uncertain variable for modeling the uncertain quantity, uncertain distribution for describing an uncertain variable. Furthermore, the inverse uncertainty distribution was presented to be described the relationship between uncertain measure and uncertainty distribution. As an important contribution, Liu and Ha [13] derived some useful expressions of expected value of uncertain variables. The uncertainty theory has become a new tool to describe subjective uncertainty and has a general application both in theory and engineering. For instance, uncertain programming [14], uncertain statistics [15], uncertain differential equation [16, 17], uncertain risk analysis [18], uncertainty reliability analysis [19–25, 30], and so on.
As an application of uncertainty theory, uncertainty reliability analysis was presented by Liu [10] which was a method to deal with system reliability via uncertainty theory. Liu [20] analyzed the reliability of redundant systems and discussed that the conversion switches of systems were absolutely reliable or non-absolutely reliable. Liu et al. [21] established some fundamental mathematical models of unrepairable systems based on the assumption that the system lifetimes were uncertain variables. Gao et al. [22] illustrated some formulas for calculating the reliability index of an uncertain weighted k-out-of-n system. Zeng et al. [23] discussed the belief reliability based on uncertainty for series, parallel, k-out-n: G system. Hu et al. [24] studied the parallel-series standby system with uncertain lifetimes, and provided a simulation optimization algorithm to optimize the system model.
However, in some cases, human uncertainty and objective randomness may coexist in a complex system. In order to describe this complex phenomenon, in 2013, Liu [26] pioneered chance theory by defining uncertain random variable and chance measure to describe a system that involved both uncertainty theory and probability theory. Besides, different from uncertain random variable, a random uncertain variable was also defined in [24]. Thus, the uncertain random programming [27], uncertain random risk analysis [28] and the expected loss of uncertain random system [29] were analyzed by Liu et al. Wen and Kang [30] introduced a method of reliability analysis based on chance theory, and some common systems were used to illustrate the formula of reliability index. Gao and Yao [31] studied the importance index to model the importance extent of a component in an uncertain random reliability system. Gao et al. [32] discussed the reliability of k-out-of-n system which was assumed that the components have uncertain random lifetimes. Zhang et al. [33] introduced the belief reliability for uncertain random systems and proposed some system belief reliability formulas. In practical engineering, the lifetimes of some system units have independent and identical random distribution functions which may be determined by previous experience. However, due to the influence of external uncertain environment, there are no sample data to ascertain the distribution parameter of each unit lifetime. Thus, Cao et al. [34] considered a series of discrete time series-parallel systems and standby systems with uncertain parameters based on uncertainty theory and probability theory.
In this paper, we consider two discrete time redundant series-parallel systems with imperfect switches based on probability theory and uncertainty theory, besides, the reliability indexes of these systems are analyzed. The rest of this paper is organized as follow: In Section 2, some basic concepts and theorems of uncertain variable and random uncertain variable are given. In Section 3, some new concepts of system reliability indexes are defined, and the redundant series-parallel system with imperfect switch is illustrated. Section 4 considers a cold redundant series-parallel system that the conversion switch is non-absolutely with random uncertain 0-1 mode or random uncertain geometric mode. The warm redundant series-parallel system with imperfect switch is discussed in Section 5. Some numerical examples are illustrated in Section 6.
Preliminary
Let Γ be a nonempty set, and let
Uncertainty and randomness are two basic types of indeterminacy. Chance theory was pioneered by Liu [26], which is a mathematical methodology for modeling complex systems with both uncertainty and randomness.
Let
Problem statement
For the redundant system in random uncertain environment, some new concepts of system reliability indexes will be defined in this section. In addition, two redundant series-parallel systems with imperfect switches and random uncertain lifetimes will be illustrated.
Reliability index
System description
The discrete time redundant series-parallel system with uncertain parameters supported by imperfect switch is considered in this paper. There are two main classifications of redundant systems, namely cold and warm. In each type of the redundant systems, conversion switches are imperfect with random uncertain 0-1 switch lifetimes or random uncertain geometric switch lifetimes. Here, we suppose that the redundant series-parallel system is consisted of non-repairable and non-identical units and several similar switches, as shown in Fig. 1. In subsystem ij (i = 1, 2, ⋯ , n, j = 1, 2, ⋯ , m
i
), the original unit Uij starts its operation and the redundant unit enters to the idle state simultaneously. In addition, the cold redundant unit and the warm redundant unit of Uij are denoted as

Redundant series-parallel system.
Let
1. The redundant systems, units and switches at any time can only be in one of two states: functioning or failed, and they are non-repairable.
2. Lifetimes of units and switches are independent distributions with uncertain parameters.
3. All uncertain variables are mutual independence, and they have regular uncertainty distributions and inverse uncertainty distributions.
4. The switches of redundant system are imperfect. When the switch is available, switching is realized instantaneously.
5. Assume that failure of the subsystem occurs either when both original unit and standby unit fail, or as a result of failure of switch and then failure of the unit in the base connection in the moment of switch fails.
Cold redundant system
In the redundant system, the conversion switch is a special element, it may fail. In this section, we consider two approaches to describe the lifetimes of switches: random uncertain 0-1 switch lifetime and random uncertain geometric switch lifetime.
Cold redundant system with random uncertain 0-1 switch lifetime
In cold redundant series-parallel system with random uncertain 0-1 switch lifetime, let
Introduce an indicator function here
Obviously, the lifetime of the cold redundant series-parallel system is
So, the uncertain reliability variable of the cold redundant series-parallel system is
In Equation (1),
It follows from Theorem 2 and Definition 9 that the uncertain reliability variable
Let us suppose a cold redundant system of conversion switch with random uncertain geometric switch lifetime. The lifetime of switch Kij is denoted by
Introduce an indicator function here
Obviously, the lifetime of the cold redundant series-parallel system is
So, the uncertain reliability variable of the cold redundant series-parallel system is
In Equation (4),
By Theorem 2 and Definition 9, the uncertain reliability variable
The MTTF of the series-parallel system is
In another case, the standby unit of the redundant system will fail after a long time event if it is in standby state, so the warm redundant system is considered.
Warm redundant system with random uncertain 0-1 switch lifetime
In the warm redundant series-parallel system with random uncertain 0-1 switch lifetime, when the switch Sij is used, the reliability of the switches are independent uncertain variables
Introduce an indicator function here
Obviously, the random uncertain lifetime of the warm redundant series-parallel system is
So, the uncertain reliability variable of the warm redundant series-parallel system is
In Equation (7),
It follows from Theorem 2 and Definition 9 that the uncertain reliability variable
In warm redundant system with random uncertain geometric switch lifetime, the lifetime of switch Kij follow the random uncertain geometric distribution with uncertain parameter
Obviously, the random uncertain lifetime of the warm redundant series-parallel system is
So, the uncertain reliability variable of the warm redundant series-parallel system is
In Equation (10),
By Theorem 2 and Definition 9, the uncertain reliability variable
The reliability of the warm redundant series-parallel system is
The MTTF of the series-parallel system is
In this section, some numerical applications will be introduced to demonstrate the theoretical results.
Example 1
Consider a high pressure cold (warm) redundant system composed of power supply system A1 and launch system A2 in series. The A1 consists of a power supply device 11, and the A2 consists of launchers devices 21 and 22 connected in parallel. Let devices ij (i = 1, 2, j = 1, ⋯ , m
i
, m1 = 1, m2 = 2) be composed of a original unit, a cold (warm) standby unit and a switch, respectively. Let the uncertain parameters
The values for the high pressure cold (warm) standby system
The values for the high pressure cold (warm) standby system
Applying Equations (2), (5), (8) and (11), the reliability of the high pressure cold and warm redundant systems with random uncertain 0-1 switch lifetimes and random uncertain geometric switch lifetimes are illustrated, as shown in Figs. 2 and 3. In addition, the reliability of the system with perfect switch are also shown in Figs. 2 and 3.

The reliability of the high pressure cold redundant system.

The reliability of the high pressure warm standby system.
It seems from Figs. 2 and 3 that:
1. The reliability of the high pressure cold (warm) redundant system is decreasing with respect to the time.
2. The reliability of the high pressure cold (warm) redundant system with perfect switch is obviously better than that of imperfect switch.
3. At any moment, the reliability of the high pressure cold (warm) redundant system with random uncertain 0-1 switch lifetime is better than ones with random uncertain geometric switch lifetime.
The MTTF of the high pressure cold (warm) standby system
In random environment, the reliability of high pressure cold (warm) redundant systems are obtained according to Remark 1 - Remark 4, as shown in Figs. 4 and 5. The constant parameters of each unit (switch) lifetime select the expected value of Z (a, b, c). The Figs. 4 and 5 show scatter plots of the reliability of the systems with uncertain parameters and constant parameters, respectively.

The reliability of the high pressure cold redundant system with imperfect switch.

The reliability of the high pressure warm redundant system with imperfect switch.
Let us consider a pump station cold (warm) redundant system consisting of drive equipment A1 and control equipment A2 in series. The drive equipment A1 and control equipment A2 consist of two subsystems respectively, denoted by 11, 12, 21 and 22. Let subsystems ij (i = 1, 2, j = 1, ⋯ , m i , m1 = 2, m2 = 2) be composed of a original unit, a cold (warm) standby unit and a switch, respectively.
In pump station cold (warm) redundant system, let the uncertain parameters
The values for the pump station cold (warm) redundant system
The values for the pump station cold (warm) redundant system
For pump station cold and warm redundant systems with random uncertain 0-1 switch lifetimes and random uncertain geometric switch lifetimes, the reliability could be calculated by Equations (2), (5), (8) and (11), as shown in Figs. 6 and 7. The reliability of the pump station cold (warm) redundant system with perfect switch is also obtained. From Figs. 6 and 7, we can see that the reliability of the pump station cold and warm redundant systems are indeed affected by the imperfect switches. The Figs. 6 and 7 show that the reliability of the pump station cold and warm redundant systems for random uncertain 0-1 switches are greater than ones for random uncertain geometric switches.

The reliability of the pump station cold redundant system.

The reliability of the pump station warm redundant system.
The MTTFs of the pump station cold and warm redundant systems with different imperfect switches are obtained by Equations (3), (6), (9) and (12), as show in Table 4. The results in Table 4 show that the obtained MTTFs of the pump station cold and warm redundant systems for random uncertain 0-1 switches are longer than ones for random uncertain geometric switches.
The MTTF of the pump station cold (warm) redundant system
Compared with traditional reliability analysis, the reliability of pump station cold (warm) redundant systems with imperfect switches are obtained according to Remark 1 - Remark 4, as shown in Figs. 8 and 9. The constant parameters of each unit (switch) lifetime select the expected value of Ł (a, b). The Fig. 8 shows that the reliability of pump station cold redundant system has weak sensitivity to the assumption of uncertain parameters. The Fig. 9 shows that the reliability of pump station warm redundant system has strong sensitivity to the assumption of uncertain parameters.

The reliability of the pump station cold redundant system with imperfect switch.

The reliability of the pump station warm redundant system with imperfect switch.
This paper employed uncertainty theory and probability theory to deal with the problem of discrete time system reliability. The concepts of random uncertain geometric distribution, discrete random uncertain Weibull distribution, random uncertain 0-1 switch lifetime and random uncertain geometric switch lifetime are proposed. Based on these definitions, the discrete time redundant series-parallel systems with imperfect switches and random uncertain lifetimes were established, some formulas of the reliability indexes of such redundant systems were derived. Finally, some numerical examples were given to illustrate the redundant system models. Moreover, from the viewpoint of control theory, the complexity, robustness and convergence of the system were also important in practical application. In future research, we can focus on the complexity, robustness and convergence analysis of the discrete random uncertain control system based on uncertainty theory and probability theory.
Footnotes
Acknowledgments
This work is supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.11601469), the Science Research Project of Education Department of Hebei Province (No. ZD2017079) and the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (no.A2018203088), People’s and Republic of China.
