Abstract
Case-based reasoning (CBR) is one of the most popular methods used in emergency decision making (EDM). Case retrieval plays a key role in EDM processes based on CBR and usually functions by retrieving similar historical cases using similarity measurements. Decision makers (DMs), thus, choose the most appropriate historical cases. Although uncertainty and fuzziness are present in the EDM process, in-depth research on these issues is still lacking. In this study, a heterogeneous multi-attribute case retrieval method based on group decision making (GDM) with incomplete weight information is developed. First, the case similarities between historical and target cases are calculated, and a set of similar historical cases is constructed. Six formats of case attributes are considered, namely crisp numbers, interval numbers, linguistic variables, intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, single-valued neutrosophic numbers (NNs) and interval-valued NNs. Next, the evaluation information from the DMs is expressed using single-valued NNs. Additionally, the evaluation utilities of similar historical cases are obtained by aggregating the evaluation information. The comprehensive utilities of similar historical cases are obtained using case similarities and evaluation utilities. In this process, the weights of incomplete information are determined by constructing optimization models. Furthermore, the most appropriate similar historical case is selected according to the comprehensive utilities. Finally, the proposed method is demonstrated using two examples; its performance is then compared with those of other similar methods to demonstrate its validity and efficacy.
Keywords
Introduction
An emergency refers to a suddenly occurring event that has the potential to cause serious damages, such as earthquakes, typhoons, gas explosions, and large fires, and the adoption of special measures to deal with the event is required [1]. In the case of an emergency event, emergency decision making (EDM) is an important process which provides an effective alternative to decrease the loss of property and life [2]. The more effective the generated emergency alternative, the better the EDM [3]. Additionally, time is of the essence in EDM; hence, how an effective emergency alternative can be quickly generated is vital to realize good EDM.
Currently, the most commonly used EDM methods include group decision making (GDM) [4, 5], prospect theory [6, 7], case-based reasoning (CBR) [8, 9], and TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for Interactive Multi-Criteria Decision Making) [10, 11]. Among these methods, CBR has become the focus of research attention because it can draw lessons from emergency alternatives of historical cases to quickly generate emergency alternatives for current situations. Additionally, it has been proven to be both fast and effective. Therefore, many researchers have utilized CBR to facilitate EDM [8, 13]. These applications demonstrate that case retrieval plays a vital role in CBR. However, with the progress of society and the development of information, the information is becoming uncertain and fuzzy, and several studies have used fuzzy theory in the multi-attribute decision making [14–18]. Therefore, EDM methods that are based on CBR need further improvement to fully account for this change.
To date, several case retrieval methods have used heterogeneous multi-attribute representations of emergency cases. For example, Fan et al. [8] considered five types of attribute values, i.e., crisp symbols, crisp numbers, interval numbers, fuzzy linguistic variables, and random variables. Zheng et al. [9] developed a new case retrieval method that considered four types of attribute values, i.e., crisp numbers, interval numbers, multi-granularity linguistic variables, and intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Yu et al. [13] considered crisp numbers, crisp symbols, interval numbers, and fuzzy linguistic variables. Wang et al. [19] considered crisp numbers, fuzzy semantic data, and symbolic data. Yu et al. [14] considered crisp numbers, interval numbers, crisp symbols, linguistic terms, and probabilistic linguistic term sets. However, there has been no study on the use of neutrosophic numbers (NNs) to represent the case information in any of these methods. NNs, which were developed by Florentin Smarandache [20], consist of three parts, i.e., truth, indeterminacy, and falsity memberships. This model is more capable of representing the uncertainty and fuzziness of information; hence, it has been widely adopted for use in a number of decision making methods. For example, Peng et al. [21] developed a new outranking approach using simplified NNs. Zhang et al. [22] proposed an outranking method with interval-valued NNs. Zhang et al. [23] presented a multi-attribute GDM method with interval-valued NNs. Ye et al. [24] developed a multi-criteria decision-making method with single-valued NNs. Based on these analyses, this present study considers not only crisp numbers, interval numbers, linguistic variables, and intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, but also NNs in the representation of the emergency attributes.
In the application of case retrieval in EDM [8, 13], the case similarity is calculated from the similarity measurement, where the most similar historical case is selected as a reference for generating an emergency alternative. However, the alternative from the most similar historical case is often not actually the most suitable alternative for the current emergency. Therefore, several studies have begun to investigate how the most appropriate historical case for the current emergency can be selected, depending on the specific case information [3]. GDM is one of the most effective methods used in selection problems [25, 26]. Moreover, GDM has been widely used in EDM; for example, Xu et al. [27] developed a large GDM method to respond to a fire and explosion accident. Wang et al. [28] proposed a GDM method when experts hesitated to make emergency response decisions after a large explosion in China. Xu et al. [29] presented a large GDM method to respond to major explosion accidents. Yu et al. [30] proposed a GDM method for multi-person multi-criteria emergency decision support. Based on these studies, GDM was chosen to identify the most appropriate historical case. Given the limited time and processing power available to decision makers (DMs) in EDM, DMs use NNs to express the evaluation attribute of similar historical cases.
When a heterogeneous multi-attribute case retrieval method based on GDM is employed to search for the most appropriate historical case, three challenges are encountered: (1) measurement of the case similarity for heterogeneous multi-attribute case information, (2) aggregation of the DMs’ evaluation information, which is represented by NNs, and (3) selection of the most suitable historical case, considering the case similarities and the evaluation information by several DMs. Furthermore, the attribute weights are often only partially known owing to the suddenness and uncertainty of emergencies and the limited knowledge and experience of the DMs. Therefore, it is important to find a solution for heterogeneous multi-attribute case retrieval problems involving GDM and incomplete weighting information. To accomplish this goal, in this study, a case retrieval method for heterogeneous multi-attribute is proposed, which considers crisp numbers, interval numbers, linguistic variables, intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, and NNs. GDM is used to determine the most suitable historical case process, where the evaluation attribute is expressed as an NN. Both the weights of the problem and evaluation attributes are considered incomplete, which more accurately reflects real-world situations. The weights of all the attributes are determined by constructing optimization models based on the deviation, which reduces the subjective consciousness.
The novelty of the developed method lies in the following aspects: (1) Because the information in emergencies is uncertain and fuzzy, our proposed method of case retrieval considers six formats case attributes, i.e., crisp numbers, interval numbers, linguistic variables, intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, single-valued NNs and interval-valued NNs. The attribute weights are represented by incomplete formats and are solved by an optimization model. Thus, we can better express the information of emergencies and the results of case similarities are more objective. (2) We use an improved GDM method to select the most feasible historical case, in which we apply single-valued NNs to express fuzzy information and construct an optimization model to determine the incomplete evaluated weights. (3) This proposed method not only considers both the case similarities and the evaluation utilities given by DMs. Therefore, the results are more consistent with the actual decision-making process.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section 2 briefly reviews related concepts. Section 3 describes the proposed heterogeneous multi-attribute case retrieval method based on GDM with incomplete weight information. Section 4 discusses a case study to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method and presents a comparison of the proposed method with other existing methods. Finally, Section 5 presents the conclusion.
Preliminaries
In this section, we first present an overview of neutrosophic sets (NSs) and incomplete weight information and then describe the problem.
Neutrosophic set
The operations of NNs are also defined by Ye [31].
h1 ⊕ h2 = h2 ⊕ h1 h1 ⊗ h2 = h2 ⊗ h1 λ(h1 ⊕ h2) = λ(h2 ⊕ h1), λ > 0; (h1 ⊗ h2)
λ
=(h1)
λ
⊗(h2)
λ
, λ > 0; (λ1 ⊗ λ2) h1 = λ1h1 ⊕ λ2h1), λ1, λ2 > 0;
Incomplete weight information
In the real world, decision-making problems are often complex and uncertain, and the weights of the attributes or/and the weights of relative importance of each expert are incomplete. Several studies have analyzed this incomplete weight information [32–34], which can be expressed in the following five forms, Δ
t
(t = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5), which are the subsets of the weight vectors in Δ0. Let W = {w1, w2, …, w
j
, …, w
h
} be a weight vector of relative importance of each expert or attributes, H = {1, 2, …, h}, j ∈ H, such that
(1)
Δ1 = {W ∈ Δ0|w λ ⩾ w j , for all λ ∈ I1 and j ∈ J1}, where I1 and J1 are two disjoint subsets of H.
(2)
Δ2 = {W ∈ Δ0|μ λj ⩾ w λ - w j ⩾ θ λj , for all λ ∈ I2 and j ∈ J2}, where μ λj > 0 and θ λj > 0 are constants satisfying μ λj > θ λj , I2 and J2 are two disjoint subsets of H.
(3)
Δ3 = {W ∈ Δ0|w λ - w j ⩾ w γ - w θ , for all λ ∈ I3 , j ∈ J3, γ ∈ K3 and θ ∈ L3}, where I3, J3, K3, and L3 are four disjoint subsets of H.
(4)
Δ4 = {W ∈ Δ0|w λ ⩾ ρ λj w j , for all λ ∈ I4 andj ∈ J4}, where ρ λj > 0, and I4 and J4 are two disjoint subsets of H.
(5)
Δ5 = {W ∈ Δ0|ζ λ ⩽ w λ ⩽ ξ λ + ɛ λ , for all λ ∈ I5 }, where ζ λ > 0 and ɛ λ > 0 are two constants, and I5 is the subset of H.
Heterogeneous multi-attribute case retrieval method using incomplete weight information
In this section, we describe the proposed method for heterogeneous multi-attribute case retrieval method based on GDM with incomplete weight information. First, the case similarities are determined. Thereafter, the similar historical case set is constructed, and the DMs’ evaluation utilities for the similar historical case set are calculated. Finally, the method of ranking of the similar historical cases based on the overall utility is proposed, and the most appropriate historical case is selected.
Determination of case similarity
In this study, heterogeneous problem attribute X
j
(j ∈ {1, 2, …, n}) is described using six formats of attributes, i.e., crisp numbers, interval numbers, linguistic variables, intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, single-valued NNs, and interval-valued NNs. Let Ω1, Ω2, Ω3, Ω4, Ω5, and Ω6 denote the subsets of the attribute vectors corresponding to the crisp numbers, interval numbers, linguistic variables, intuitionistic fuzzy numbners, single-valued NNs, and interval-valued NNs, respectively. Additionally, Ω
α
∩ Ω
β
= ø (α, β = 1, 2, …, 6, α ≠ β). Let S = {s0, s1, …, s
t
, …, sL-1} be the basic linguistic term set, t ∈ {0, 1, …, L - 1}. Let x
ij
denote the jth attribute value of the historical case C
i
(i ∈ {1, 2, …, m}), and x0j denotes the jth attribute value of target case C0. For the sake of convenience, the six formats of x
ij
and x0j are expressed as follows:
Let
Let Sim
j
(C0, C
i
) denote the attribute similarity between the target case C0 and historical case C
i
, with respect to attribute X
j
. According to the method proposed by Fan et al. [8], the inverse exponential function is used to construct the attribute similarity measurement. The problem attribute similarity Sim
j
(C0, C
i
) can be calculated as follows:
To aggregate the attribute similarities, the attribute weights need to be determined first. To calculate the attribute weights, an optimized model based on the method of maximizing deviation was constructed. Wang et al. [35] were the first to propose this method of maximizing deviation. The main concept of this method is that if the deviation value between the different historical cases is significantly large, the attribute should be assigned a large weight because the attribute plays an important role in the decision-making process; if the deviation value between the different historical cases is very small, the attribute should be assigned a small weight because the attribute plays a relatively small role in the decision-making process. Based on this, an optimized model, which maximizes the overall deviation for all the case attributes, was constructed to determine the weights. The detailed processes are described as follows:
Let Sim(C0, C
i
) denote the problem case similarity between historical case C
i
and target case C0. Then, Sim(C0, C
i
) can be obtained using the simple additive weighting method, as follows:
From this it is clear that Sim(C0, C i ) ∈ [0, 1]. The greater Sim(C0, C i ) is, the more similar the historical case C i is to target case C0.
For EDM based on CBR, when the case similarity reaches a certain threshold, it can effectively serve as a reference for generating the target case’s alternative [34]. Therefore, a similar historical case set should be constructed according to the case similarities. The threshold of case similarity γ is set according to the experience and knowledge of DMs, such that γ ∈ [min {Sim(C0, C i ) |i ∈ {1, 2, …, m}}, max {Sim(C0, C i ) |i ∈ {1, 2, …, m})}]. The higher the threshold of case similarity is, the higher is the DMs’ requirement for case similarity.
When a historical case C
i
satisfies the condition
Determination of DMs’ evaluation utility for the similar historical case set
Given the evaluation attribute set of the emergency alternative from the similar historical case set Z
v
applied to the current emergency R = {R1, R2, …, R
l
, … R
h
}, l ∈ {1, 2, ⋯ , h}, the corresponding evaluation attribute weights set is
When the case similarity set is built, the most appropriate historical case should be selected. Currently, the most common method is the GDM method. Therefore, the GDM method was utilized in this study to determine the most suitable historical case. The selection steps are described as follows.
First, normalize the DMs’ evaluation information. For the benefit evaluation attribute, the value of the attribute is kept unchanged, i.e.,
Then, the evaluation attribute distance
According to the analysis in Model (5), a maximization model was constructed to determine the weight of the evaluation attributes
This model can be executed using the Lingo 11.0 software. By solving this model, it is possible to obtain the optimal weights of evaluation attribute,
For the kth DM DM
k
and evaluation attribute R
l
, the positive and negative values, i.e.,
Positive values:
For DM
k
, let
Then, for DM
k
, the relative closeness
From this it is clear that the larger the value of
According to the above analysis, a maximization model was created to determine the DMs’ weights.
This model can be executed using the Lingo 11.0 software. By solving this model, it is possible to obtain the weights of the relative importance of DMs
After determining the weights for the evaluation attributes and weights of relative importance of each DM, the normalized DMs’ evaluation information was aggregated according to Definition 4. Let
The value of r
v
is clearly a single-valued NN. Owing to the need to compare the advantages of the historical cases, it is necessary to convert the single-valued NN into a crisp number. Therefore, we used the cosine theorem to obtain the crisp number [31]. Let S(r
v
) denote the evaluation utility, which is a crisp number and can be expressed as follows:
From this it is clear that S(r v ) ∈ [0, 1]. The greater the value of S(r v ), the more effective historical case Z v will be.
To select the most suitable historical case, it is important to consider the case similarities between the historical case, target case, and the DMs’ evaluation information. The product theory was adopted to determine the comprehensive utility. Let U
v
denote the comprehensive utility of the similar historical case Z
v
. The formula to calculate U
v
is as follows:
Here, U v ∈ [0, 1] and the greater the value of U v , the more suitable historical case Z v will be to target case C0.
According to Z v , it is possible to determine the ranking order of similar historical cases and choose the most appropriate case.
In summary, the procedure for ranking based on the GDM approach is as follows:
In this section, two examples are provided to generate the emergency alternative and implement the proposed heterogeneous multi-attribute case retrieval method.
Case study
X1: Number of underground personnel
X2: Area of impact of the gas explosion
X3: Original ventilation system status
X4: Damage to the ventilation system
X5: Degree of landslide
X6: Scope of the fire
X7: O2 concentration
X8: CO concentration
X9: CH4 concentration
Among these, X1, X7, X8, and X9 are crisp numbers, X2 is an interval number, X3 is a linguistic variable, X4 is an intuitionistic number, X5 is a single-valued NN, and X6 is an interval-valued NN. The information from 10 historical cases {C1, C2, …, C10} and target case C0 is presented in Table 1. The attribute weights have the following constraints:
Information of the historical cases and target case
Information of the historical cases and target case
Using Equation (1), attribute distance d j (C0, C i ) can be calculated, and the results are presented in Table 2. The attribute similarities Sim j (C0, C i ) are then determined using Equation (2).
Problem attribute distances and case similarities
Using Equations (3)–(5), a deviation model was constructed to determine the attribute weights, whereby it was found that W P = {0.0833, 0.0600, 0.1400, 0.1000, 0.1500, 0.1500, 0.1167, 0.1167, 0.0833}
Based on the attribute similarities Sim j (C0, C i ) and the attribute weights W P , the case similarities Sim(C0, C i ) can be determined using Equation(6), whereby the following results were found:
According to these results and their own knowledge and experience, the DMs set the case similarity threshold at γ = 0.65. Additionally, the set of similar historical cases is Z = {Z1, Z2, Z3} = {C3, C5, C10}.
Based on the set of similar cases, three DMs evaluated the emergency plans from similar historical cases. Three main evaluation attributes were considered; i.e., the reduction of casualties (R1), the reduction of property loss (R2), and the overall rescue effect (R3). The evaluation information is presented in Table 3. The evaluation attribute weights meet these conditions:
Evaluation information of similar case set
Using Equations (7)–(8), the evaluation attribute weights
Once the evaluation attribute weights and the weights of the DMs were determined, the evaluation information and the aggregate evaluation information were normalized using Equations (15)–(16). The results of the aggregation are as follows:
Based on this, the single-valued NN was converted into crisp numbers using Equation (17) and the results are as follows:
Finally, the comprehensive utility, U
v
, is obtained using Equation (18), where the results are as follows:
The greater the comprehensive utility U v is, the more suitable the historical case will be. Consequently, according to the calculated comprehensive utilities, U1 is the most suitable historical case; i.e. C3, can be retrieved.
According to Equations (1)–(2), the attribute similarities are calculated. Then, the attribute weights are determined by Equations (3)–(5). Furthermore, the case similarities are determined by Equation (6). The DMs set the threshold of case similarity at 0.65, then, the similar historical case set is constructed; i.e., Z = {Z1, Z2, Z3} = {C11, C12, C18}, and the case similarities are calculated as follows:
Based on case similarities and evaluation utilities, comprehensive utility U
v
is obtained as follows:
Therefore, the historical case, C11, is retrieved as the most suitable historical case.
Comparison of results obtained with and without consideration of DMs’ evaluation
To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the classic EDM method based on CBR was used to select the most suitable historical case according to the information in Example 1, without considering the DMs’ evaluation. Based on the calculated case similarities Sim(C0, C i ), the historical case with the highest case similarity is C10. The DM(s) will draw on the alternative of historical case C10 in order to generate an emergency alternative for the current situation. However, different results were obtained using the proposed method because it considers the DMs’ evaluation into consideration, which assesses the effectiveness of the alternative of the similar historical case when applied to the current emergency. From the evaluation utility S(r v ), S(r1) > S(r3), which means that historical case C3 is more effective than historical case C10.
Comparison of results obtained with different group decision making methods
To demonstrate the superiority and effectiveness of the GDM method in the process of determining the DMs’ evaluation utility, we compare it with two existing GMD methods using EDM, namely the method proposed by Wang et al. [2] and that proposed by Zheng et al. [38]. Because neither of these methods can handle NNs, we used the score function [39] to convert the evaluation attributes into crisp numbers. The results of evaluation utilities S(r v ) and overall utilities Uv are presented in Table 4.
Results of evaluation utilities
Results of evaluation utilities
Table 4 clearly indicates that the sorting results of the method proposed in this study are different from those of Wang et al.’s method [2] and Zheng et al.’s method [38]. This is because the method proposed by Wang et al. [2] used interval numbers to represent the information given by the DMs, and the method proposed by Zheng et al. [38] used interval-value Pythagorean fuzzy linguistic variable to represent the information given by the DMs; and there is information loss when they are converted into crisp numbers. The method proposed in this study used NNs to represent the evaluation information given by the DMs, which is very helpful to represent uncertain information. In addition, the proposed method determined the weights of relative importance of the DMs by constructing optimization models, whereas Wang et al.’s method [2] and Zheng et al.’s method [38] assumed that the weights are equal. Therefore, the GDM herein can deal with uncertain information better and gather the DMs’ information more objectively.
In this section, we compare the proposed method with existing CBR methods [8, 39]. From Table 5, it is possible to conclude the following:
Comparison with other CBR methods
Comparison with other CBR methods
(1) The proposed method considers 6 types of attribute values, which are able to represent the complex attribute information, including NNs, and intuitionistic fuzzy numbers; these values are better able to represent the uncertainty and fuzziness of the attributes. Fan’s method [8] considered crisp numbers, interval numbers, fuzzy linguistic variables, and random variables. The proposed method considers a greater number of attribute types than Zheng’s method [9].
(2) The proposed method can obtain the attribute weights by constructing optimization models, which do not need to be provided in advance and are more objective. Fan’s method [8] needs to determine the attribute weights in advance, which is often determined subjectively by the DMs, but Zheng’s method [9] only deals with situations where the attribute weights are completely unknown. The proposed method is able to handle cases where the attribute weights are either completely unknown or partially known. In addition, the attribute weight representation is incomplete, which further expresses the information uncertainty of DMs. Complete weights require accurate information, and DMs need to have a complete understanding of the information, which is practically difficult. Therefore, by applying incomplete weights to represent the attribute weights and solving them using optimization models, the objectivity of attribute weights is better guaranteed, and the accuracy of case similarities can be improved.
(3) The proposed method considers both the case similarity and the effect of the DMs’ evaluation on the application of similar historical cases to current emergencies; the results are more consistent with the actual situation. Fan’s method [8] and Zheng’s method [9] only consider the case similarities to select the most suitable historical case.
Based on the comparative analysis, the superiority of the proposed method can be summarized as follows: The proposed method considers six formats of case attributes, which used single-valued NNs, and interval-valued NNs to represent the uncertainty and fuzziness of information. The attribute weights are represented incompletely. These are useful for EDM problems characterized by partial or incomplete information, and limited expertise. The classic EDM method based on CBR does not consider the DMs’ evaluation, and the most similar historical case is selected only according to the case similarities. The proposed method considers not only the case similarity, but also the DM’s evaluation utility to the similar case set. Therefore, it’s more suitable for the emergency response. During the process of selecting the most suitable historical cases, the proposed method used the GDM. To better express the uncertain and fuzzy evaluation of the DMs’, the proposed method applies the NNs to represent the evaluation information, and constructs an optimization model to determine the weight. Therefore, the result is more objective.
Conclusions
In practical EDM scenarios, it is common for the available information to be uncertain and fuzzy. CBR is a common method to generate emergency alternatives. Therefore, a heterogeneous multi-attribute case retrieval method based on GDM with incomplete weights was proposed to solve such problems. Unlike previous studies, this study considered fuzziness and uncertainty of emergencies in case retrieval. In the case representation, heterogeneous attributes, i.e., crisp numbers, interval numbers, fuzzy linguistic variables, intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, single-valued NNs, and interval-valued NNs are considered. Additionally, a corresponding method for attribute distance measurement, which can handle more complex situations, is proposed. In selecting the most suitable historical case, single-valued NNs are used to express the DMs’ evaluations of similar historical cases. The weights of the case attribute, evaluation attribute, and relative importance of each DM represent incomplete information, which are determined by constructing optimization models. The comparison analysis confirmed that (1) the proposed method can deal with more complex case information; (2) the proposed method considers the evaluation information of DMs; and (3) the weights of the problem attribute, evaluation attribute, and relative importance of each DM are incomplete information and determined objectively.
The proposed method can help DMs make decisions during emergency situations. It can also be applied to decision-making problems with heterogeneous information, such as economic risk forecasting and environment input cost forecasting. However, some limitations exist in the proposed method, such as the fact that the dynamics of the emergencies [2, 40], the consensus in the GDM [42-45] and psychological behavior of individuals during emergencies [7, 41] are not considered. In the future, the focus will be on incorporating the consideration for the dynamics of the situation, the consistency in GDM, and integration of a theory of human psychological behavior, such as prospect theory [1, 7] or TODIM [11, 41], into an EDM method based on CBR.
Footnotes
Acknowledgments
This work was partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the Grant No. 71371053, Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Chinese Ministry of Education, No. 20YJC630229, Humanities and Social Science Foundation of Fujian Province, No. FJ2019B079, Special Project of School-level Science and Technology Service Team of Fujian Chuanzheng Communications College, No. 20200205.
