Abstract
Energy access in developing countries is a real challenge, although the availability of modern, reliable, and efficient energy services is a capital driver for economic development. In Cote d’Ivoire, the electrification rate was only 38% in 2014, and solid biofuels (charcoal and fuelwood) contributed 63% of the total fuel consumption in 2015. This paper focuses on forecasting energy demand and supply for Cote d’Ivoire in the short term (2015–2030) and identifying possible energy policy paths. ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average), Holt–Winters forecasting, and LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning system) are used in our analysis. The results show that the forecasts for total energy demand have higher values when the LEAP model is used than with the other two. As LEAP includes population growth trends, it is believed to give the best estimates. However, the results for the scenarios considered here clearly show that the requirements of the sustainable energy policy for all will not be met in Cote d’Ivoire by 2030. Policy recommendations are therefore made to allow the energy policy to be streamlined.
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