Abstract
Since the LICON methodology was first developed in the late 1990s to predict the long term creep rupture behaviour of new generation martensitic 9% Cr steels from the results of relatively short duration multi-axial specimen tests, there have been a number of necessary refinements to this originally simple concept. These are reviewed.
Nomenclature
crack length; initial crack size
creep crack extension
constants in
creep crack incubation
compact tension (testpiece)
direct current potential drop (crack monitoring voltage)
dissimilar metal weld
finite element (analysis)
fusion line
multi-axiality factor (
heat affected zone; inter-critical heat affected zone
high creep strength
load point displacement (in CCI test)
stress exponent in uniaxial creep strain rate model
parent material
limit of proportionality; 0.2% proof strength
time; time to rupture in uniaxial testpiece
time to initiate a crack in a multi-axial testpiece (with crack initiation criterion,
time to steady state creep conditions
temperature
von Mises (stress)
designation for multi-axial geometry/feature, e.g.
strain
steady-state creep strain rate
multi-axial rupture exponent; γ in Regime-1; γ in Regime-2
stress exponent in time to rupture model; ν in Regime-1; ν in Regime-2
stress, initial stress (in constant load uniaxial test; all parent material)
maximum principal stress
effective stress; representative effective stress associated with multi-axial geometry/feature
stress marking transition between power law creep and power law breakdown regimes
Introduction
The LICON approach was originally developed in the late 1990s to predict the long term creep rupture behaviour of new generation martensitic 9% Cr steels (including their welded joints) from the results of relatively short duration multi-axial specimen tests [1,2]. The creep life and condition assessment methodology relied on the acceleration of creep damage development under multi-axial loading conditions to enable extended extrapolation of rupture strength into the long time fracture regime. In its original form, the methodology did not account for the long term ageing effects which could occur during the service duty lifetime of certain materials, and this is still a topic of current research. Nevertheless, the approach provided similarity with the loading conditions experienced in real structures and enabled a more accurate evaluation of the future in-service performance of welded components for which no long term operating experience existed. Other potential applications included the heat-specific remaining life prediction of high temperature components with multi-axial features.
Subsequent development of the concept was mainly limited to activity by some of the original project team in Switzerland [3–7] and Finland [8], although some independent activity in Germany had been reported in [9]. As the effectiveness of the methodology was evaluated for an increasing scope of materials, a number of new issues had to be addressed, and the following paper examines these more recent developments.
LICON methodology
The concept
The original LICON development was based on the time to crack initiation formulation:

Schematic representation of the LICON concept (typically,
Typically for ferritic steels in Regime-1, the damage mechanism is predominantly void nucleation due to particle/matrix decohesion, rupture is
Mechanism Regime-2
In Mechanism Regime-2 in ferritic steels, damage typically nucleates and develops at grain/lath boundaries, rupture is
The Regime-2 equation set (i.e. Eqs (3a)–(3d)) may be used for different purposes. For example, having determined the parameters for Eq. (3a) from the results of a series of tests using a multi-axial specimen geometry such as a CT-testpiece, these may be used to predict either long term uniaxial rupture behaviour using Eqs (3c), (3d) or the life of a component with a multi-axial feature or a uniaxial x-weld specimen (e.g. [7]) using Eq. (3b). In this case, for example,
In order to implement this methodology it is necessary to determine experimental

Example of variation of load point displacement and creep crack extension with time during a creep crack incubation test of HCS 1% CrMoV steel at 550°C [3]. (Colors are visible in the online version of the article; https://dx-doi-org.web.bisu.edu.cn/10.3233/SFC-150179.)
A series of creep crack incubation tests (e.g. Fig. 2) are performed to provide the
In the original LICON procedure [2], rationalisation of the Regime-1 multi-axial and uniaxial data lines led to identification of the most appropriate representative stress for the material (e.g. from the solutions given in [14]).
Mechanical analysis
On the basis of the original development with results for the advanced martensitic 9% Cr P91, P92 and E911 steels [2], it was concluded that

Stress redistribution characteristics of ‘reference stress’ and ‘non-reference stress’ materials.
Stress state
An important feature of the 9% Cr steels with which the LICON concept was originally developed was that the stress state ahead of the specimen multi-axial feature fully redistributed prior to the onset of creep crack extension, Fig. 3. Such materials may be referred to as ‘reference stress’ materials [15], and typically exhibit high creep rupture ductility and are notch insensitive. Subsequent difficulties with applying the methodology to different alloys arose because for some of these (e.g. high creep strength (HCS) 1% CrMoV steel), the onset of cracking occurred before full stress redistribution [6], Fig. 3. In such circumstances it was shown to be necessary to know the stress state at the time of crack initiation rather than simply after full redistribution. In addition, the stress could vary widely in magnitude with position ahead of the multi-axial crack starter at the onset of cracking. This made the mechanical analysis part of the methodology more demanding, in particular for low creep ductility, notch sensitive materials. Moreover, as the results of more multi-axial specimen reference tests were analysed, it also became apparent that
Creep model
An important development was the recognition that, in some circumstances prior to full stress redistribution, the determined stress state could depend on whether components of primary and/or tertiary creep deformation were represented in the creep model employed. This meant that the originally determined
It was also realised that much greater numerical precision could be achieved by adopting a multi-stress regime creep model which acknowledged the differences in deformation response associated with different mechanism regimes, e.g. Fig. 4.

Schematic representation of steady-state creep rate versus stress.
Within the application temperature range of many creep resistant engineering alloys, the influence of stress on creep strain rate may simply be represented as shown in Fig. 4. At high stresses above
One difficulty with the necessity to have a multi-stress regime creep model is that in principle it requires long duration experimental data to underpin the lower stress regime parts of the model. If long duration tests had actually to be performed for this purpose, it negated the need for a concept to predict long duration creep properties from short time tests. This problem was overcome when it was demonstrated that

The development work conducted on HCS 1% CrMoV benefitted from the fact that the heat of the steel evaluated was already well characterised in terms of its creep properties for rupture durations out to 35 kh [3]. By adopting the described refinements to the analytical procedure, it was possible to significantly improve the predictive capability of the LICON procedure when applied to this ‘non-reference stress’ (low creep ductility, notch sensitive) material (Fig. 6).

LICON prediction of long time (Regime-2) uniaxial creep-rupture strength of HCS 1% CrMoV at 550°C (solid line) compared with actual experimental data for same heat of steel (dashed line) [6].
It had been recognised for some time that the main application of the LICON methodology was likely to be for prediction of the long time creep-rupture strength of weldments. What probably was not originally appreciated was that it would be necessary to consider the uniaxial cross weld specimen, whose properties were to be predicted, as a multi-axial structure in its own right. This was demonstrated with specimens taken from a 1% CrMoV/Ni-base alloy dissimilar metal weld (DMW), with Alloy-617 weld metal, in [7].
Assessment of the DMW was a particularly demanding challenge. In tests conducted at 550°C, it was predictable that creep-rupture would occur on the 1% CrMoV side of the joint. Had the joint been a similar welded joint (e.g. between 1% CrMoV and 1% CrMoV parent materials, with a CrMoV weld metal), creep-rupture would have occurred in the inter-critical heat affected zone (ICHAZ) of the low alloy ferritic steel in the form of Type IV cracking. In the case of the 1% CrMoV/Alloy-617 DMW, cracking developed not only in the ICHAZ, but also in the 1% CrMoV at the fusion boundary (e.g. [17]).
A good test of the effectiveness of the FEA model adopted for the mechanical analysis part of the LICON procedure when applied to the target weldment is to extend it to the prediction of damage development in the uniaxial and CT cross-weld specimens being used to form the basis of the analysis. An example of this is shown in Fig. 7 where it is evident that there is good agreement between the analytical prediction of H distribution and the experimental observation of damage accumulated in both specimen types.

Comparison of FEA predicted H distribution and actually observed damage development in (a) uniaxial and (b) CT cross-weld specimen tests [7]. (Colors are visible in the online version of the article; https://dx-doi-org.web.bisu.edu.cn/10.3233/SFC-150179.)

Effective LICON prediction of long time (Regime-2) uniaxial creep-rupture strength of 1% CrMoV/Ni-base DMW at 550°C using
For the prediction of Regime-2 cross-weld specimen creep-rupture lives it is necessary to use Eq. (3b) with
Since the LICON methodology was first developed in the late 1990s to predict the long term creep rupture behaviour of new generation martensitic 9% Cr steels from the results of relatively short duration multi-axial specimen tests, there have been a number of necessary refinements to this originally simple concept. These have been reviewed.
An important development has been refinement of the method to be also applicable to so-called ‘non-reference stress’ (creep brittle, notch sensitive) materials, which is an essential feature when the procedure is to be used to predict the long time creep-rupture properties of a new material (for which the multi-axial creep rupture response is unknown). Changes to the methodology for this purpose have involved the adoption of: (i) more advanced non-linear FE stress analysis instead of approximate solutions, as a routine, and (ii) multi-stress regime creep constitutive modelling.
Application of the refined procedure, and treatment of cross-weld uniaxial specimens as multi-axial structures enables the LICON methodology to be used to predict the long term creep-rupture behaviour of both similar and dissimilar metal welds.
