Abstract
In just four decades the systems of statistics in Africa went through three seismic waves. The first of these occurred immediately in the aftermath of decolonisation. During this time Africa experienced a decade of dramatic rise in the development of its systems of national statistics, particularly in the implementation of population censuses and household surveys. However, two decades later, by the 90's, Africa was dogged by dramatic declines and diminished levels of competence in its systems of statistics. Consequently, the proportion of countries that undertook a census in the 1980, 1990 and 2000 Rounds of Housing and Population Censuses in Africa, compared to those in the other regions of the world, was significantly lower. Africa undermined the cornerstone for statistical development at a critical moment of its development. Towards the end of the decade of the 90's however, statistical systems of a reasonable number of countries on the continent experienced rapid revival as democracy drove a new lease of life on the continent. By 2005 all countries on the continent were conscious of the need for a system of statistics for their sovereign, including the commitment to conduct a census. The question is whether this third wave consisting of, revival in statistics heralds, new beginnings and sustained statistical systems in Africa or like its predecessor cycle, Africa will witness yet a decline. This paper suggests that to understand statistical development and influence their further development, requires that one should appreciate the interplay amongst economic performance, political stability and prospects for statistical development. In this regard the paper provides a historical perspective of how this interplay in the past worked out to the detriment of statistics and the same interplay currently and in the future seems to work to the benefit of statistics. By posing the leadership question in the arena of statistical development, culture and practice, the paper brings to the fore the need for African statisticians to identify opportunities and co-invest in statistical value creation so that the official statistics institution is enabled to harvest value appropriately and in perpetuity thereby minimise the risk of its obliteration.