CO2 Emissions from Major Developing Countries: Better Understanding the Role of Energy in the Long Term*

This paper analyzes projected carbon dioxide emissions from the developing countries in 2025. The paper is based on analyses of energy use patterns, today and in the future, for nine major developing countries. These countries account for over two-thirds of the energy related emissions from the developing world. The analysis indicates that emissions from these countries increase fourfold by 2025, but policies aimed to reduce emissions curtail them to a threefold increase. Further, more than three -quarters of the reduction in carbon emissions are achieved through efficiency improvements and the remaining improvements are achieved through fuel switching. Industry contributes the most to carbon emissions, followed by the transport and residential sectors. Transport displays the largest relative potential for carbon reduction (33%). The economic growth rates to which each country aspires increase oil demand from 7 million barrels today to 25 million barrels by 2025. While this level may not strain world oil supply, individual countries may not be able to import oil because of foreign exchange constraints. Thus despite efficiency improvements and fuel switching, energy demand and carbon emissions from the developing countries increase severalfold by 2025.