Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space

In this paper findings are presented concerning the behaviour of households moving into and within the public-housing sector in a major British city. In contrast to most research on the public sector, the approach adopted is explicitly derived from theories and studies of housing choice and search. Data from an extensive household survey of new council tenants are used to demonstrate that households undertake a range of search strategies which are associated with different housing outcomes. In particular, variations are shown to exist in stressors and subsequent search behaviour, in information usage, in evaluation strategies, and in spatial patterns.

Research on urbanisation has been hampered by discrepancies between the administrative boundaries of towns and a meaningful spatial framework of urbanism that recognises both the true extent of the built-up areas of towns and the functional linkages between urban centres and their surrounding hinterland. An ‘urban area’ definition has been recently developed for British census statistics to represent the physical reality of urban boundaries in terms of land that is urban in use, whereas the functional approach to urban definition has been implemented in terms of a set of urban-centred labour-market areas. In this paper the spatial frameworks of physical and functional definitions are combined in order to investigate processes of population growth in small- and medium-sized towns in England between 1971 and 1981. As in other studies, a general tendency to counterurbanisation— higher growth rates for smaller urban areas (physically defined)—is demonstrated. However, a variety of types of ‘counterurbanisation’ also become apparent. In addition to growth of smaller towns in rural areas beyond metropolitan influence, there has been growth of towns in the labour-market areas of newer freestanding urban centres, and also in the decentralised commuter hinterlands of large metropolitan cores.

In this paper a number of causal processes which may underlie different types of growth are investigated, setting this investigation within the standard and labour-market regional context of physical urban areas. There is evidence of ‘people-led’ growth in environmentally attractive locations (for example, through retirement migration). However, growth of small- and medium-sized towns also reflects employment decentralisation and deconcentration to freestanding or satellite towns, and the extension of commuter hinterlands linked both to a growth of car commuting and to availability of land for private-sector housing. Government policies encouraging growth are also demonstrated to be significant. Conversely, decline in a minority of small towns often indicates a diminishing employment base or policy restrictions on growth. The impact on modelling growth in urban areas of a diversity of causal processes and locational contexts for growth is considered.

Forest-energy plantations have been recognized as a possible source of renewable energy throughout the world, but the regional consequences of extensive plantation development have not been considered. In an effort to understand better the trade-offs that exist between economic, environmental, and energy concerns associated with regional development projects, a goal-programming model of forest-energy plantation development in Eastern Ontario, Canada has been developed. The results indicate not only the potential for energy plantations, but the utility in using goal-programming as a resource-assessment tool as well. The method is particularly useful in identifying potential conflicts among regional development goals, and can also address uncertainties with respect to decision priorities and production relationships.

The major objective of the study of the dimensions of automobile demand (1981–1988) is to obtain reliable forecasts of the variables which drive the fundamental energy equation: energy consumed (litres) = efficiency of technology (litres per 100 kilometres) × utilisation rate (kilometres per period). Since the level of utilisation is unlikely to be independent of the state of technology, and since both dimensions are conditioned by the state of the economy and the nature of households as well as by the extent of corporate-sector support to the household sector, it is necessary to view the levels of vehicle usage and vehicle fuel efficiency as outputs of the broader household decision process.

This broader context can be represented by a study of the household's choice of automobiles (by number and composition) and level of utilisation. This perspective enables us to view vehicle efficiency and utilisation as derivatives of a study of the household's demand for mobility services, which is derived from the demand for end activities (consumption of goods and leisure). Since we are especially interested in the role of fuel prices and vehicle technology in the household's decision on the level of vehicle utilisation, it is desirable to monitor the response path of a sample of households over a period of time. A single cross-section approach cannot identify the influence of changing fuel prices on vehicle use, nor can it adequately accommodate the temporal relationship between vehicle purchase/disposal decisions and the utilisation rate. To represent satisfactorily the role of policy variables (for example, fuel prices, taxes associated with vehicle possession, standards for vehicle technology) in the context of the wider set of influences on household automobile possession and usage, the study members have developed an econometric model system which jointly models the household's choice of vehicles and utilisation level over the period 1981–1985. This paper provides an overview of the theoretical, methodological, and empirical dimensions of the project and, where appropriate, introduces some preliminary findings. The project in its entirety is due for completion in late 1988.

An attempt is made to analyze reasons for and consequences of migration under zero population growth by use of a system of simultaneous differential equations. Intercity migration is assumed to take place based upon differences in utilities, where the utility function is expressed as a function of city size. It is revealed that a deterministic specification of the utility leads to an unstable distribution of city sizes, whereas a stochastic specification does not. Existence and stability of equilibria are examined for two representative stochastic migration models: the origin-constrained gravity model and the logit model. It is then argued that population concentration can be explained by an increase in urbanization economies, and population decentralization can be due to a decrease in intercity transportation and communication costs.

A major factor underlying a person's voting decision is that person's identification with one or other of the competing political parties. Respondents interviewed in the course of the British Election Study surveys of 1974 and 1979 indicated both their party identification and the strength of that affiliation. This paper is an examination of the impact of the local political environment on the strength of an individual's party identification.

In this paper annual time-series data are used to examine the relationship between unemployment and both the level and the rate of new company registrations in Scotland between 1950 and 1984. Lagged unemployment rate and changes in this rate (also lagged) are shown to explain in excess of 90% of the yearly variation in registration activity. The results indicate the importance of those factors, for example, unemployment or the threat thereof, which act to ‘push’ individuals into self-employment.