Homicide Studies

One perspective on homicide clearance by arrest argues that clearance is influenced by police discretion based on victim characteristics. Another suggests that immediate situational characteristics, related to physical evidence and information, are more important in clearing homicides. Using event history analysis, this study examined the effects of victim and situational characteristics on homicide clearance for 1579 murder incidents from the 2002 National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). Unlike the logistic regression approach typically used in murder clearance research, event history analysis considers the length of time to clearance, increasing the accuracy of estimates. The current analysis found that incidents with female or younger victims were more likely to be cleared. Also, homicides with victims involved in drug- and gang-related activities were more likely to be cleared. However, the significant impact of victim characteristics disappeared after controlling for situational variables related to physical evidence, information, and witnesses. Situational characteristics such as under-the-influence offenders, non-stranger offenders, contact weapons, and concomitant serious offenses significantly increased the odds of homicide clearance.

Homicide clearance rates in the United States have been steadily declining from the 1960s through the 1990s. Our study asks: (1) Are the factors commonly identified in homicide clearance research as being related to clearances consistent across time? (2) Can these factors shed light on the decline in homicide clearance rates during the past three decades? (3) How are community area characteristics related to clearances across time? Using Chicago data from 1966 to 1995, we find that the factors vary across time and space in terms of statistical significance and magnitude of their relationships. Specifically, the increasing significance of victim's race and firearm usage may account for some of the decrease in homicide clearance rates. Community area characteristics enhance our understanding of homicide clearances, although to a lesser extent than the victim and situational characteristics of a homicide case.

Few studies examine homicide clearances despite trends across many jurisdictions that show a decrease in homicides cleared each year. This study addresses that research gap using Chicago homicide data from 1991 to 2002 to identify predictive factors in homicide clearances. Across five logistic regression models we found that victim and incident characteristics were significant predictors of homicide clearances, although the number and types of significant predictors were varied across the analyses. Moreover, we found differences in the factors that significantly predicted clearances for three specific homicide circumstances: expressive, instrumental, and gang-related.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the political environment on murder clearance rates. The research strategy employed a multimethod research design, using both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The quantitative approach uses Federal Bureau of Investigation reported data from the 59 largest cities from 1970 to 1999 to conduct a pooled time-series cross-sectional analysis of annual murder clearance rates. Regressing murder clearance rates on murder offense rate, total population of the city, state unemployment rate, police expenditures per 1000 city population, officers per 1000 residents, and a dummy variable for mayoral election year yields little discernible impact of political influence on murder clearance rates. However, in contrast to the quantitative modeling, the qualitative case study reveals a significant impact of the media, local political figures, and prosecuting attorneys on police practices and procedures, investigative decision making, and even fluctuations in murder clearance rates.

This is an exploratory study of exceptional clearances using homicide data from Chicago from 1988 through 1995. The focus of the analysis is on homicide cases in which the offender is detained by police, but later released because the prosecution refuses to prosecute. On the basis of a bivariate and logit analysis, it appears that cases barred to prosecution predominately involve either domestic altercations or other types of altercations.