Journal of Infrastructure Development

With the rapid increase in the number of mega-infrastructure projects underway across East Africa, how the social, economic, political and environmental repercussions of these projects intersect with ongoing conflict dynamics is a poorly understood topic. Although recent interest in large-scale land acquisitions has led to a number of detailed investigations into specific projects and trends, there has not yet been a broad, systematic review of how large-scale infrastructure developments in East Africa interact with previous, ongoing and potential conflict in their areas of operation. The objective of this article is to report on an analysis of 26 mega-infrastructure projects across Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Uganda, with an explicit focus on the common tension points that contribute to security dynamics. The methodology used involved two composite indicators of risk—a conflict risk score and a project impact score. The study found seven common tensions across all projects: in-migration, population displacement and relocation, a negative history of community relations with previous or follow-on developments, land rights, securitisation, environmental degradation and expectations of the local population relative to benefits delivered by the project. The study recommends increased attention on prior assessments that focus on the broader and more interconnected impacts in addition to those confined to the immediate project location, as well as in-depth examination of possible mitigation measures.

JEL Classification: O1, O2, Q2, Q3, Q4, R1, R4

We use the industry-specific effects of 12 different types of infrastructure investment in Portugal to highlight the mechanisms through which such investments affect economic activity. Our main findings are as follows: first, demand-side effects are over 60 per cent of total effects for airport investments, ports, refineries and water, and over 45 per cent for national roads, municipal roads, telecommunications, health and education. Second, site-location effects are also very significant, in particular for national roads, highways and railroads, with 30, 35 and 64 per cent of the total effects, respectively. Site-location effects are negative for water and electricity, and statistically insignificant for municipal roads, airports and refineries, and marginally positive for ports, that is, all these are cases in which we would expect adverse or small location effects. Third, the macroeconomic effects are driven primarily by the effects of these investments on non-traded goods and service industries. The functional channel relating to internationally traded goods is much less significant while the functional effect affecting non-traded industries is much more relevant as it accounts for more than 30 per cent of the effects in the cases of municipal roads, airports and refineries, and in excess of 20 per cent for highways, railroads, telecommunications, health and education. Naturally, these results cannot be automatically generalised, as the nature of the effects of infrastructure investments crucially depends on the level of development of the country in question, on the maturity of its existent infrastructure systems, and on the rigour of all decisions pertaining to infrastructure investment. Nevertheless, they establish that, as infrastructure investments are concerned, the dominance of virtuous supply-side effects is not a foregone conclusion and, conversely, the relevance of Keynesian effects cannot be dismissed.

JEL Classification: C32, E22, H54, L90, L98, O52

This article re-examines the link between infrastructure development and output growth in Nigeria for policy formulation and implementation. The article employed the Granger causality test based on the time series vector error correction model (VECM) to reinvestigate the nexus between infrastructure investment and economic growth in Nigeria, using quarterly data from 1997:Q1 to 2017:Q4. This study, therefore, interrogates and accepts the infrastructure–growth hypothesis that increased financial infrastructure and infrastructure stock stimulates long-run real economy expansion in the Nigerian context.

JEL Classification: H54, E23, C23

This study estimates Malmquist index of total factor productivity change of 14 major general insurers in India over the period 2009–10 to 2016–17 over 7 annual windows.

The study decomposes total factor productivity index into its constituent components, using several approaches including Färe et al. (1989, Productivity Developments in Swedish Hospitals: A Malmquist Output Index Approach. Carbondale: Department of Economics, Southern Illinois University; 1992, Journal of Productivity Analysis 3(1): 85–101), Färe et al. (1994, American Economic Review 84(1): 66–83), Ray and Desli (1997, American Economic Review 87(5): 1033–39) and Wheelock and Wilson (1999, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 31(2): 212–23). Furthermore, the study uses bootstrap data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to obtain bias-corrected point and interval estimates of Malmquist index and its components. Finally, the study makes a comparison of productivity performance between public and private sector insurers. The results indicate a modest growth in total factor productivity during the period contributed mainly by efficiency changes. The private sector insurers performed better than the public sector in terms of productivity growth. The variations in productivity performance indicate that insurer scale of activity can affect their performance.

JEL Classification: G-23, C-61, D-21

This article estimates the effect of transport infrastructure at country level, on employment, productivity (total factor productivity (TFP), and their components technical efficiency–pure and the scale—and technological change) and economic growth, using a dynamic panel approach. We focus on two broad categories of transport infrastructure: (1) road density and (2) road paved. Using dynamic panel GMM system estimation, we find positive effects of road density and road paved on total factor productivity (TFP) in countries with middle low and low income (using parametric and non-parametric estimations). On the other hand, and taking into account the Deng’s hypothesis of a nonlinearity relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth (Deng, 2013, Transport Reviews 33(6): 686–99), we found empirical evidence about a Kuznets curve when we consider the percentage of roads paved. In countries with middle low and low income, we also found a Kuznets curve between road density and unemployment.

JEL Classification: H54, R42, O47, O4, C23

Narrowing the developmental gaps of a relatively poor country with a relatively rich one is one of the priorities to the policymakers of the former. One way to reduce the developmental gaps is making different countries in a group to converge to a single steady-state value. Under this background, this study aims to examine whether the BRICS nations are converging in per capita GDP for the period 1990–2016. Applying the neoclassical methodology of β convergence and σ convergence, the study observes that the countries are not unconditionally β converging but converging in conditional terms with the variables such as foreign direct investment (FDI) flow and working population acting as the deciding factor. Furthermore, the study shows that the countries are converging in σ definition meaning the cross-country dispersion in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has fallen significantly. Hence, formation of BRICS has made the countries relatively better off compared to pre-BRICS phase.

JEL Classification: E01, O4, J21

Previous studies show that blemished infrastructural development projects dispossessed local population and degraded natural resources to a greater extent in the developing countries. Therefore, this research is aimed at determining how land use decisions affect local habitats and resources. Thus, the data were collected from the recently constructed water reservoir in the southern part of Pakistan, named Chotiari. Our findings show that the project is hampered by the local actors’ nonparticipation in decision-making, deceptive information dissemination by the authorities, misuse of funds, power relations, improper rehabilitation plans and unequal access to natural resources. We paid attention to the actors’ network, land as well as the property rights violations, which have created the conflicts, where the causes of the conflicts of land use super positioned in the light of international rules and laws have also been explained. Thus, it is recommended that, for natural resource governance and land use conflict management, it is imperative to take all stakeholders on board during feasibility of any infrastructural setting. Furthermore, the awareness campaigns regarding the environmental importance and valuation of natural resources must be on the topmost agenda of the government.