
Editorial
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Outbreaks of infectious diseases that spread via respiratory route, e.g. influenza, are common amongst Hajj congregation in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Arabian authority successfully organized the Hajj 2009 amidst fear of pandemic influenza. While severe influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was rare, the true burden of pandemic influenza at Hajj that year remains speculative. In this article we review the latest evidence on influenza control and discuss our experience of influenza and its prevention at Hajj and possible application to other mass gatherings. Depending on study design the attack rate of seasonal influenza at Hajj has ranged from 6% in polymerase chain reaction or culture confirmed studies to 38% in serological surveillance. No significant effect of influenza vaccine or the use of personal protective measures against influenza has been established from observational studies, although the uptake of the vaccine and adherence to face masks and hand hygiene has been low. In all, there is a relatively poor evidence base for control of influenza. Until better evidence is obtained, vaccination coupled with rapid antiviral treatment of symptomatic individuals remains the mainstay of prevention at Hajj and other mass gatherings. Hajj pilgrimage provides a unique opportunity to test the effectiveness of various preventive measures that require a large sample size, such as testing the efficacy of plain surgical masks against laboratory-confirmed influenza. After successful completion of a pilot trial conducted among Australian pilgrims at the 2011 Hajj, a large multinational cluster randomized controlled trial is being planned. This will require effective international collaboration.
Member states across the Eastern Mediterranean region face unprecedented health challenges, buffeted by demographic change, a dual disease burden, rising health costs, and the effects of ongoing conflict and population movements – exacerbated in the near-term by instability arising from recent political upheaval in the Middle East. However, health actors in the region are not well positioned to respond to these challenges because of a dearth of good quality health research. This review presents an assessment of the current state of health research systems across the Eastern Mediterranean based on publicly available literature and data sources. The review finds that – while there have been important improvements in productivity in the Region since the early 1990s – overall research performance is poor with critical deficits in system stewardship, research training and human resource development, and basic data surveillance. Translation of research into policy and practice is hampered by weak institutional and financial incentives, and concerns over the political sensitivity of findings. These problems are attributable primarily to chronic under-investment – both financial and political – in Research and Development systems. This review identifies key areas for a regional strategy and how to address challenges, including increased funding, research capacity-building, reform of governance arrangements and sustained political investment in research support. A central finding is that the poverty of publicly available data on research systems makes meaningful cross-comparisons of performance within the EMR difficult. We therefore conclude by calling for work to improve understanding of health research systems across the region as a matter of urgency.
To investigate whether mortality statistics show an effect of mammographic screening on population-based breast cancer mortality in England.
Joinpoint regression analyses, and other analyses, of population-based mortality data.
Analysis of mortality rates in the Oxford region, UK (1979–2009) because, unlike the rest of England, all causes of death mentioned on each death certificate for its residents (not just the underlying cause) are available prior to commencement of the English National Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP). In addition, analysis of English national breast cancer mortality rates (1971–2009).
Women who died from breast cancer in the Oxford region (1979--2009) and England (1971--2009)
Age-specific mortality rates, and age-standardized mortality rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate years (‘joinpoints’) in which trends changed, and annual percentage change between joinpoints, with confidence intervals.
In the Oxford region, trends for breast cancer mortality based on underlying cause and on mentions were very similar. For all ages combined, mortality rates peaked for both underlying cause and mentions in 1985 and then started to decline, prior to the introduction of the NHSBSP in 1988. Between 1979 and 2009, for mortality measured as underlying cause, rates declined by −2.1% (95% CI −2.7 to −1.4) per year for women aged 40–49 years (unscreened), and by the same percentage per year (−2.1% [−2.4 to −1.7]) for women aged 50–64 years (screened). In England, the first estimated changes in trend occurred prior to the introduction of screening, or before screening was likely to have had an effect (between 1982 and 1989). Thereafter, the downward trend was greatest in women aged under 40 years: −2.0% per year (−2.8 to −1.2) in 1988–2001 and −5.0% per year (−6.7 to −3.3) in 2001–2009. There was no evidence that declines in mortality rates were consistently greater in women in age groups and cohorts that had been screened at all, or screened several times, than in other (unscreened) women, in the same time periods.
Mortality statistics do not show an effect of mammographic screening on population-based breast cancer mortality in England.


