Outlook on Agriculture

The complex interactions between people, domestic animals and the environment have led to animals being assigned different roles in different regions of the world, in pastoral, semipastoral and commercial farming societies. These roles depend on the value system of the society and on its attitude to risks. There are many sources of risk in animal production systems, including environmental risks, wars, civil unrest and the economic risks associated with high inputs, and these will be perceived differently according to the society: high inputs, for instance, tend to decrease risk in intensive farming, but increase it in pastoral systems. While monetary returns are the driving force in a free-market economy, biological survival and established cultural tradition may define the essential values of a peasant community. In view of these differences an alternative research paradigm, relevant to the needs of traditional production systems and based on risk-spreading criteria, is presented here for consideration by animal scientists.

Draught animals still do much of the work on farms in developing countries, as well as being used for transportation. Despite the efforts made by governments to promote mechanization, tractors are not a realistic alternative for the average small farmer. Animals such as the buffalo have been used for centuries without causing any air or water pollution or soil compaction; they are an integral part of a sustainable agriculture, producing milk, meat and manure without any external cash inputs, and they buffer the farmer against crop failure and provide companionship. Draught animal power on small farms is not a backward way of farming but it needs support from research and development agencies if it is to develop its full potential.

Small ruminants — that is, sheep and goats — have an important contribution to make to sustainable development. A high proportion of the world's sheep and goat populations are found in Africa and Asia, mainly on mixed farms under rainfed systems, and they are significant assets for poor people. They provide meat, milk, fibre and skins and act as a buffer against environmental fluctuations, reducing risks for the farmer. Current levels of productivity are low, and for meat the gap between output and demand is widening. Improvements in the productivity of small ruminants and in their contribution to development will depend on increased efficiency in the use of goats and sheep, integrated use of natural resources, targetting of the poor, wider use of improved technologies at the farm level, and greater attention to ecosystem and ecoregional development.

The incorporation of livestock into alley farming systems, in which food or forage crops are grown between hedges of multipurpose trees that are regularly pruned for mulch and/or forage, has been studied for over 10 years in Africa. Prunings from leguminous trees such as Leucaena and Gliricidia can be used for mulch, increasing crop yields, but the trees may also be pruned for fodder, especially during fallow periods. The major benefit from supplementing the diet of free-roaming small ruminants in West Africa with the foliage of leguminous trees is increased survival, and the forage is best directed at late pregnant and lactating females. In East Africa crossbred dairy cows show a significant response in milk production to supplementation with Leucaena. Economic analyses of livestock production show that continuous alley farming is more profitable than alley farming with fallow, or conventional no-tree farming, even when the cost of clearing trees at the end of their useful life is included.

During the coming decades changes in the global climate are likely to influence agriculture, including meat production, and may cause a shift in crop production and grazing areas. Regional contamination of soils and feed with heavy metals and organic chemicals, as well as radioactive contamination, might limit animal husbandry to certain regions. Conversely, meat production has a great impact on the environment, its effects ranging from destruction of vegetation and desertification in dry or cold regions to pollution of soil and water by manure in areas with intensive animal husbandry. A more environmentally sound animal husbandry should be promoted, but such a policy will in the immediate future raise conflicts about what is economically feasible and environmentally safe.

Dairy cattle production will be able to meet future increases in the requirements for animal protein in the human diet by means of increased efficiency of production, without an increase in cow numbers. Breeding, nutrition, production enhancers and automated milking will increase efficiency. It is also worth increasing the protein to fat ratio by breeding and nutritional methods. On a small scale, dairy cows may in future be used to produce human medicines in their milk.

Consumers in developed countries are now more fashion-conscious than ever before. At the same time they are discriminating against synthetic fabrics manufactured from non-renewable resources and are demanding fashionable knitwear and woven garments made from high-quality natural fibre. This demand, together with the need for diversification of livestock production in developed countries and the hitherto untapped animal resources of many developing nations, offers a unique opportunity for the production of high-value animal fibre from a wide range of natural resources in many different parts of the world.

Animal production makes effective use of the large land area of Canada that is not capable of producing crops for direct human consumption. It also provides a use for surplus cereal grain, not all of which can be exported. Trends in the dairy, beef, swine, egg, poultry meat, sheep, game and fur, and aquaculture sectors are described.