Outlook on Agriculture

Agricultural revolutions in the past have been characterized by synergistic interactions between several innovations, which have yet to emerge with biotechnology. Although the intensification of agriculture has created new problems of sustainability, it has ameliorated others. The developing countries, with four-fifths of the present world population to support on only half of the arable land, currently have about 800 million chronically undernourished people, yet must also provide for nearly all further population growth. Nevertheless, financial support for the required agricultural research in the less developed countries (LDCs), although less than 3% as much as the annual OECD expenditure on support for its own agriculture, is currently being reduced. Only with a substantial boost to aid for the funding of public sector agricultural research in and for the developing countries will they be able both to eliminate chronic malnourishment and feed the additional two or more billion people.

Genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops are being grown in many parts of the world. The EU will soon make a decision on their commercialization in Europe. It is not easy for legislators to reach conclusions as to the risks and benefits. This paper looks at the information emerging from countries where these GMHT crops are already commercialized, and identifies the benefits and problems. It then looks at issues especially relevant to the UK and not fully covered by the field experiences elsewhere, and where specific European research projects have endeavoured to find answers. It seeks to identify the benefits and the real problems for the UK that need to be resolved prior to commercialization.

Post-harvest R&D could make a valuable contribution to pro-poor rural development. Evidence suggests, however, that technological innovations need to be supplemented by institutional innovations that encourage broader participation from researchers, entrepreneurs and users of the technology. Furthermore, greater attention will need to be given to the wider institutional context in which innovation takes place. This paper presents the concept of a post-harvest innovation system as a way of exploring these issues and explains the capacity-development view of research that this perspective brings. Examples of post-harvest innovation systems are presented to illustrate the critical importance of partnerships and the influence of the institutional context on the outcome of research. Ways of implementing this in research programmes are then discussed.

Although local knowledge of their economic exploitation is still poor, a new look at vicuña may offer important economic possibilities for the inhabitants of the High Andes in Bolivia. This article investigates the possibilities for a change in vicuña production systems in Bolivia, which could result in increased economic benefits whilst guaranteeing the sustainability of the system. Its main conclusion is that future vicuña production systems can certainly be made more efficient and sustainable, but that more effort is needed to develop new marketing systems and technologies if the inhabitants are to take full advantage of the possibilities that vicuña production offers.

How to assist the rural poor to enhance their livelihoods and food security in a sustainable way is one of the greatest challenges we face. Food security strategies should be based on the premise that food insecurity and famine derive from failure of access to food rather than global food shortage. Food security is mainly about the access of poor households to food and about how political, economic and social factors affect households' food security. In this article, the relationship between hunger and poverty, the meaning of food security and sustainable livelihood security are explored. The article focuses on food security as one of the important elements of sustainable livelihood approaches, analysing the role of women in the household economy, food production and ultimately food security. Finally it assesses policy guidelines for promoting these approaches.

This paper describes some of the results of a detailed farm-level survey of 32 small-scale cotton farmers in the Makhathini Flats region of South Africa. The aim was to assess and measure some of the impacts (especially in terms of savings in pesticide and labour as well as benefits to human health) attributable to the use of insect-tolerant Bt cotton. The study reveals a direct cost benefit for Bt growers of SAR416 ($51) per hectare per season due to a reduction in the number of insecticide applications. Cost savings emerged in the form of lower requirements for pesticide, but also important were reduced requirements for water and labour. The reduction -in the number of sprays was particularly beneficial to women who do some spraying and children who collect water and assist in spraying. The increasing adoption rate of Bt cotton appears to have a health benefit measured in terms of reported rates of accidental insecticide poisoning. These appear to be declining as the uptake of Bt cotton increases. However, the understanding of refugia and their management by local farmers are deficient and need improving. Finally, Bt cotton growers emerge as more resilient in absorbing price fluctuations.