Journal of Politics in Latin America

Although comparative research has relied heavily on electoral volatility as a proxy for party system institutionalisation (PSI), this measure cannot account for the patterns of interparty interactions that are key to determine the degree of party system stability. I develop a new measure – the party bloc volatility (PBV) index – to account for consistency in the ideological positions and in the partisan composition of the government and opposition blocs. I demonstrate the limitations of the index of electoral volatility by analysing the case of Brazil. Although electoral volatility substantially decreased between 1994 and 2010, the patterns of interparty alliances became less and less predictable from 2002 onwards, as party fragmentation increased while interparty ideological differences decreased. In combination with a major economic and political crisis, these trends led to the discrediting of the established parties and thus favoured the rise of the extreme right in the 2018 elections.

As decentralisation reforms devolved greater responsibilities to local governments, improving local governance has become central to strengthening democracy. With the promise of increasing citizen representation and government transparency at the local level, in 2015 El Salvador implemented a new electoral system. The new system allowed for the election of opposition parties in municipal councils for the first time. In the context of El Salvador, we examine how opposition parties’ numerical representation influences the views of governing and opposition party members about multi-party councils’ effectiveness to improve local governance. To test our hypotheses, we rely on data from an original elite survey of 303 municipal councillors in 101 municipalities, which we complement with qualitative information. Contrary to what the literature suggests, we do not find evidence that a stronger opposition leads to more negative evaluations among members of governing parties, notwithstanding the country’s polarised party system.

Gender equality provisions have become nearly standard in constitutional design for new democracies. How do such provisions affect the ability of women’s rights advocates to achieve social change? To address this question, we compare the political use (legislation, policy, and judicial interpretation) of these provisions in Chile and Argentina, countries that differ with respect to how they have constitutionalised gender rights. The comparative analysis demonstrates how gender-specific constitutional provisions provide a legal basis and legitimacy for women’s rights advocates to advance new policy, protect policy gains, and pursue rights-based cases through the courts.

In federations and other regionalised arrangements, the search for co-operation may lead to a hierarchical alignment where the centre concentrates policy decision-making power. The use of conditional grants to build this kind of co-ordination can disguise its rather coercive character when opt-out clauses are counteracted by fiscal constraints that virtually force subnational adherence. Previous accounts on recentralisation in Latin America have overlooked this feature, particularly by mistakenly identifying the transfer of fiscal resources and responsibilities with authority over policies. The article adopts a configurational approach, focused on mechanisms, to reassess two Brazilian programmes redesigned in the 1990s and 2000s – the Fundamental Education Fund (Fundef) and the Basic Health Care Programme (Programa de Atenção Básica, PAB). Our evidence shows that both reforms followed hierarchical paths and received massive adherence of municipalities. We discuss how this kind of coercion in disguise is especially concerning in settings where some retrenchment of social expenditure is expected.

This article contributes to the scholarship on Latin American campaigning by presenting data on the use of social media by presidential candidates in Guatemala’s 2019 election, including a content analysis of more than 2,000 Facebook posts along fifteen variables. The data show that Facebook use by presidential campaigns is ubiquitous and allows campaigns to disseminate messages in non-traditional formats. Candidates use their Facebook accounts to mention issues of concern to voters and to make promises to fix the country’s problems, but offer far more slogans and vague promises than detailed policy proposals. They also rarely attack other candidates or tout their own qualifications for the presidency. The data also reveal systematic differences in campaign messaging between frontrunner and long-shot candidates.