Review of Market Integration

This article explores the trends in labour force, employment and unemployment from 2000 to 2012 using NSSO data in major Indian states. Most of the states experienced acceleration in employment growth when economic growth was slow during the first quinquennium of the twenty-first century. These trends have reversed during the second quinquennium. The deceleration in growth of employment was driven mainly by decline in female employment in rural areas in almost all the states, and the withdrawal from labour market could not be fully explained in terms of its correlates. This article highlights the need to improve the data on employment and increase its frequency, and also suggests the measures.

JEL: J21

The changing employment scenario is opening a few puzzles. While cultivators are declining, the number of operational holding is increasing very fast. Similarly, agricultural labourers are increasing but farmers indicate almost unanimously non-availability of farm labour. Age cohorts’ analysis indicates increasing average age of cultivators for future too. The central theme of this article is to bring forth this dual puzzle and decipher the changes. Our attempt here is to highlight three issues, namely, disappearing cultivators, increasing non-cultivating holdings and increasing farmers’ average age. Besides, even with increasing number of agricultural labourers, farmers indicate non-availability of farm hands. These posers are highlighted with the help of Census data data.

JEL: J08, J18, J21

In this article, we document some empirical facts about vocational training in India. First, we show that the education levels and vocational training of the Indian labour force are low and have not changed between 2004–2005 and 2011–2012. Then, we show that in wage employment, regular wage and salary earners and casual labour, the returns to skilling are low while the returns to general education are significant, even within the same occupation and industry category. Using the enterprise surveys from the NSS, we also document that self-employment, which is the outside option for most unskilled, semi-skilled and even skilled people, is very unproductive. We, thus, argue that the Indian labour market is stuck in an equilibrium where both the number of persons getting skilled and the returns to skilling are low.

JEL: J240, O150

Advance in technology leads to economic growth, and in turn to creation of new jobs, while making some old jobs obsolete. However, the rise of exponential technologies such as mobile internet, internet of things, big data analytics, artificial intelligence, etc. is disrupting this cycle dramatically, affecting jobs that used brawn as well as brain. This article analyses the impact of this shift in the Indian context and suggests several policy measures for government, industry and also institutions to prepare for the future of jobs in India, so that we do not face the grim prospect of jobless Indian growth.

JEL: O00, 038, E24.