Tourism Economics

This paper proposes a new modelling approach for the total number of international monthly arrivals in the USA using fractional integration with a structural break that is endogenously determined by the model. As expected, the results show that the break date occurs at September 2001. Disaggregating the data according to the location of origin for the arrivals, the break at September 2001 is also found in most cases, the only exceptions being Canada (February 1998) and the Middle East (September 2000). More importantly, the fact that the orders of integration of all series are strictly smaller than one implies that the series are mean reverting. Thus, the negative shock produced by the 9/11 terrorist attacks should be transitory and no strong policies should be implemented to recover the number of arrivals in the USA.

Many mature and popular tourist destinations are attracting large volumes of tourist flows. This may lead to congestion phenomena in different parts of tourist cities, especially during peak periods. This paper presents the results of a tourist survey carried out in the city centre of Amsterdam, during the high tourist season (2006), when tourism congestion phenomena were clearly present. In addition to a descriptive and exploratory statistical analysis based on multi-attribute choice analysis, the paper also presents unique findings from a statistical choice experiment on virtual questions regarding the willingness-to-accept tourism congestion, coined willingness-to-wait. Various interesting results are presented and discussed, with a specific focus on the question as to how these results can feed into the policy debate to manage congestion in mature cultural destinations.

This paper presents a new methodology for analysing efficiency and productivity in the tourism industry in an aggregate context. More precisely, by using the directional distance function, an aggregate Luenberger productivity indicator for a group of tourist firms is proposed. Moreover, the possibility of the reallocation of inputs and outputs between the individual tourist firms in the group is considered. Finally, this new performance measure is illustrated by considering a group of hotels.

This paper studies the short-run and long-run effects of a production subsidy to the tourism sector of a small open economy, which can also be thought of as a region within a country. The authors introduce a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model in which the tourism sector is considered to be labour-intensive and produces traded services. The other sector is capital-intensive and produces a non-traded good, which is also used for capital accumulation. Labour and capital can move freely between sectors. Economic decisions are made by forward-looking representative agents which optimize their intertemporal welfare by choosing consumption of both the non-traded good and tourism services, the sectoral allocation of labour and the rate of wealth accumulation. The authors discuss the short-run, dynamic and long-run effects of a production subsidy to the tourism sector. In the short run, the introduction of a subsidy to tourism production leads to a boom in that sector. As time passes, the economy-wide capital stock is decumulated and production of tourism falls. In the long run, compared to the situation before the subsidy was implemented, tourism production remains on a higher level, whereas output of the non-traded good drops.

South Africa has experienced a significant increase in tourist arrivals over the past ten years. The challenge is to sustain this growth and therefore it is important to understand the factors that influence inbound tourism to South Africa. The purpose of this article is to identify the various determinants of inbound tourism to South Africa from different source markets (categorized in continents). Time series quarterly data from 1993 to 2004 is used in the analysis of tourist arrivals. Cointegration analysis in a multivariate framework is used and the authors find that income, relative prices and travel cost are strong determinants of tourist arrivals (as with other destinations). They also find that climate and capacity play significant roles.

Over the past 25 years, the tourism sector has emerged as an important source of foreign exchange for Malaysia. This paper applies univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to examine whether Malaysia's ten most important tourist markets are converging. The study finds strong evidence that Malaysia's tourism markets are converging. Based on these findings, implications are drawn about the success of the marketing strategies of Tourism Malaysia and the prospects for the continuing contribution of tourism to the Malaysian economy.

This paper examines, in a differential game framework, demographic and technological growth in the tourism market. The number of tourists is assumed to follow a logistic growth, being influenced by demographic and technological factors, as well as the size of the market and investment in the tourism industry. The market for tourism is an oligopoly with differentiated products. In the steady-state equilibrium, the optimal population level of tourists is directly proportional to optimal investments in infrastructure, and they increase with demographic and technological factors and the size of the market and decrease with the number and diminished differentiation of destinations, production costs for tourism service and investment and the impatience of the tourism authority.

This study analyses persistence in international monthly arrivals to the Canary Islands using a model based on fractional integration and seasonal autoregressions. Thus, the estimate of the fractional differencing parameter gives an indication of the long-run evolution of the series, while the AR coefficient refers to the short-run seasonal dynamics. The authors use both aggregate and disaggregate data by location of origin and island destination. The results show that the aggregate series corresponding to the total number of international arrivals in the Canary Islands is an I(d) process, with d slightly above 0.5, and the most persistent arrivals are those coming from Scandinavia and travelling to La Palma.

This paper examines whether there is an ‘insular rent’ for Spanish hotels. The authors look at whether the hotels located in the Balearic and Canary Islands establish higher prices once quality has been controlled. They use quantile regression because it has informational advantages, given that independent variable effects are not constant along the hotel price distribution. The main result is that, once quality is taken into account, it seems there is a positive rent for island hotels. However, this rent is highly related to a hotel brand name effect. It seems that the hotel brand name reduces consumer information asymmetry problems by signalling higher quality standards or reducing the variance in the quality of a hotel given its ex ante known characteristics.

This research studies the importance placed on different aspects of a tourism destination – Madeira Island – at the time tourists make their decision to visit. The authors use an ordered probit model to see how the socio-demographic characteristics of the tourists and different aspects of the trip affect the valuation given to 30 different aspects of the destination. They conclude that males tend to value 12 of the aspects less, while valuing golf more. Older tourists place a higher value on the scenery of the destination and a lower value on the more active/sport aspects. The more educated tourists value levadas (man-made water channels with pathways used for pedestrian walks) more and organized tours less. British tourists value the climate and Portuguese tourists value extreme sports. These results are very useful when preparing any marketing strategy and extremely important when preparing development plans for the tourism sector.

This paper evaluates the satisfaction of cruise passengers visiting the Atlantic islands of the Azores Archipelago. It investigates the relationship between their satisfaction with the Azores and their behavioural intentions, not only with regard to repurchasing the cruise but also to the likelihood of their recommending it and the Azores to friends and relatives. A structural equation model is used to analyse the factors that make the Azores attractive as cruise ports of call. The data were obtained from a survey distributed between March and December 2004 among the passengers of cruises docking at Azores ports. The findings reveal that, besides value for money, the two main factors driving the behavioural intentions are linked, first, to the city, its attractions in general and the individual's level of satisfaction with the overall visit and, second, and of lesser importance, to the perceptions of hospitality, safety, services and cleanliness of the environment in the Azores.

This paper analyses the overall tourism image of Cape Verde by applying a categorical regression estimation. In the empirical test, a random sample of 120 Portuguese tourists travelling to Cape Verde during the carnival holidays was used. A significant positive relationship was found between a set of emotional and cognitive attributes and tourism image. The study analyses tourists with different experiences (first-time visitors and repeat visitors) in terms of image perception. The findings demonstrate that first-time and repeat visitors perceive the image of the archipelago differently. These differences should be considered as a determinant when creating a competitive brand image for Cape Verde.

This paper examines the determinants of the length of stay of tourists in the Azores. It is found that socio-demographic profiles, such as nationality and Azorean ascendancy, and trip attributes, such as repeat visitation rates and type of flight, are important determinants. In addition, destination image and attitudes regarding environmental initiatives, constructed from a factor analysis exercise, also influence the length of stay. In particular, the results suggest that marketing strategies which promote the Azores for its nature, landscape, remoteness and weather may increase length of stay, whereas cultural heritage has the opposite effect.

This paper analyses gender inequality in the distribution of paid and unpaid work of men and women in the Balearic hotel industry. More precisely, the author considers the differences between men and women in the number of hours worked and the amount and type of family responsibility (household chores, caring for dependants, etc). She also examines, through a regression analysis, the factors that help explain how much time is spent on unpaid work, taking into account personal, family and job characteristics. In light of the study's findings, the author highlights the factors that may help to change the current situation and recommends appropriate active policy measures.