The severe downturn in the British economy in 1980 is apparent in regional data for employment (provisional), redundancies, and unemployment. Five shift-share analyses are used here to explore the data on employment and redundancies, three of them conducted at ‘minimum list heading’ level. The period 1976 to 1979 is one of poor performance by regions of traditional policy interest, whereas the events of 1980 are seen as essentially a national phenomenon. However, bias in the industrial composition of the recession towards manufacturing in general and towards certain individual products is sufficient to focus its very worst effects on Wales, the West Midlands, and the North West.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Cambridge Economic Policy Group, 1980“Urban and regional policy with provisional regional accounts, 1966–78”Cambridge Economic Policy Review6 number 2
2.
CrossM, 1981“New firm formation and regional development” (Gower, Aldershot, Hants)
3.
FothergillSGudginG, 1979a“In defence of shift-share”Urban Studies16309–319
4.
FothergillSGudginG, 1979b“Regional employment change: A sub-regional explanation”Progress in Planning12155–219
5.
GillespieAOwenD, 1981“Unemployment trends in the current recession”Area14189–196
6.
House of Commons, Committee of Public Accounts, 1981“Measuring the effectiveness of regional industrial policy”House of Commons Paper 206 (HMSO, London)
7.
KeebleD, 1980“Industrial decline, regional policy and the urban-rural manufacturing shift in the United Kingdom”Environment and Planning A12945–962
8.
KeebleD, 1981“De-industrialisation means unemployment”Geographical Magazine53458–464
9.
Manpower Research Group, 1981Review of the Economy and Employment mimeograph, Manpower Research Group, University of Warwick, Coventry, England
10.
MasseyD B, 1979“In what sense a regional problem?”Regional Studies13233–244
11.
MooreB CRhodesJ, 1973“Evaluating the effects of British regional economic policy”Economic Journal8387–110
Northern Region Strategy Team, 1976“Causes of the recent improvement in the rate of unemployment in the Northern Region relative to Great Britain” technical report, Northern Region Strategy Team (HMSO, London)
14.
PayneRWoodP A, 1980“Engineering strangles in the recession's grasp”Engineering Today 29 July, 8–9
15.
RichardsonH W, 1978Urban and Regional Economics (Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, Middx)
16.
StevensB HMooreC L, 1980“A critical review of the literature on shift-share as a forecasting technique”Journal of Regional Science20419–438
17.
TidsallP, 1980“It depends what you mean by redundant”The Times 16 July, 8
18.
TownsendA R, 1980“Unemployment geography and the new government's ‘regional’ aid”Area129–18
19.
TownsendA R, 1981a“Geographical perspectives on major job losses in the UK, 1977–80”Area1331–38
20.
TownsendA R, 1981b“The industrial and regional distribution of redundancies, 1976–81”paper presented at the Conference of the Regional Studies Association, University of Manchester; available from the author
21.
•TownsendA R, 1982The Impact of Recession (Croom Helm, London) forthcoming
22.
WoodP A, 1976“West Midlands leads the downward trend”Geographical Magazine492–12
23.
•This reference discusses matters related to this paper
