Simple and Complex Models

Alonso W , 1968, “Predicting best with imperfect data” Journal of the American Institute of Planners 34 248–255

Ascher W , 1978 Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-makers and Planners (Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD)

Ascher W , 1981, “The forecasting potential of complex models” Policy Sciences 13 247–267

Bankes S , 1993, “Exploratory modeling for policy analysis” Operations Research 41 435–449

Baum H S , 1999, “Forgetting to plan” Journal of Planning Education and Research 19 2–14

Box G E P Draper N R , 1987 Empirical Model-building and Response Surfaces (John Wiley, New York)

Bretschneider S Gorr W , 1992, “Alternatives to forecast error based evaluation: Communicability, manipulability, credibility, and policy relevance”, paper presented at the Federal Forecasters Conference, Washington, DC; copy available from Professor Klosterman

Clarke K C , 2008, “A decade of cellular urban modeling with SLEUTH: Unresolved issues and problems”, in Planning Support Systems for Cities and Regions Ed. Brail R K (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge, MA) pp 47–60

de la Barra T , 2001, “Integrated land use and transport modeling: The TRANUS experience”, in Planning Support Systems: Integrating Geographic Information Systems, Models, and Visualization Tools Eds Brail R K Klosterman R E (ESRI Press, Redlands, CA) pp 129–156

Deal D Pallathucheril V G , 2008, “Simulating regional futures: The land-use evolution and impact model (LEAM)”, in Planning Support Systems for Cities and Regions Ed. Brail R K (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge MA) pp 61–84

Epstein J M , 2008, “Why model?” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11 12

Isserman A M Fisher P S , 1984, “Population forecasting and local economic planning: The limits on community control over uncertainty” Population Research and Policy Review 3 27–50

Klosterman R E , 1987, “Politics of computer-aided planning” Town Planning Review 58 441–452

Klosterman R E , 1999, “The What If? collaborative planning support system” Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 26 393–408

Klosterman R E , 2008, “A new tool for a new planning? The What If?™ planning support system”, in Planning Support Systems for Cities and Regions Ed. Brail R K (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge MA) pp 85–99

Landis J D , 2001, “CUF, CUF II and CURBA: A family of spatially explicit urban growth and land-use policy simulation models”, in Planning Support Systems: Integrating Geographic Information Systems, Models, and Visualization Tools Eds Brail R K Klosterman R E (ESRI Press, Redlands, CA) pp 157–200

Long J F , 1995, “Complexity, accuracy, and utility of official population projections” Mathematical Population Studies 5 203–216

Makridakis S Hibbon M Moser C , 1979, “Accuracy of forecasting: An empirical investigation” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (General) 142 97–145

Pant P N Starbuck W H , 1990, “Innocents in the forest: Forecasting and research methods” Journal of Management 16 433–460

Smith S K , 1987, “Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections” Journal of the American Statistical Association 82(400) 991–1012

Smith S K , 1997, “Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models” International Journal of Forecasting 13 557–565

Smith S K Sincich T , 1992, “Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states” International Journal of Forecasting 8 495–508

Timmermans H , 2006, “The saga of integrated land use and transport modeling: How many more dreams before we wake up?”, in Moving Through Nets: The Physical and Social Dimensions of Travel Ed. Axhausen K W (Elsevier, Oxford) pp 219–248

Wachs M , 1982, “Ethical dilemmas in forecasting for public policy” Public Administration Review 42 562–567

Wachs M , 2001, “Forecasting versus envisioning: A new window on the future” Journal of the American Planning Association 67(4) 367–372

Waddell P , 2002, “UrbanSim: Modeling urban development for land use, transportation and environmental planning” Journal of the American Planning Association 68 297–314

Yokum J T Armstrong J S 1995, “Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecast methods” International Journal of Forecasting 11 591–597