Abstract
What explains the emergence of local strongmen, and how do they maintain their power? Kimberly Marten addresses these questions in her insightful and provocative analysis of modern-day warlords. Although both the term warlord and its associated dynamics are not new, the subject of contemporary warlords remains lamentably under theorized. Certainly recent international attention on places such as Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa, and the North Caucasus has generated a new and growing body of literature related to this category of actors. Nonetheless, much theoretical work remains. And in this regard, Marten has provided a welcome and useful contribution. Also, and perhaps just as significant, Marten’s analysis offers numerous suggestions and words of caution to state leaders and policy makers confronted with these actors. Simply, while offering short-term solutions to the leadership of weak states, the negative consequences associated with warlords must be more thoroughly factored into the decision-making process. As the author states in reference to a tactical bargain with a warlord, “once struck it takes on a life of its own, unless and until state leaders are willing to bear the risks associated with breaking it” (p. 30).
As noted, Marten’s primary goal is to generate a more systematic understanding of modern-day warlords. Unlike the warlords of early times (medieval Europe, China, etc.) who ultimately played a critical role in the emergence of the modern state, today’s warlords are more straightforward purveyors of violence, lacking the incentives and opportunities to engage in constructive state building. Rather, contemporary warlords are regarded by weak states as expedient solutions to the problems of stability and governance. Leaders who are unable to extend state authority effectively into certain regions “outsource” security and other government functions to these local strongmen. As the four case studies demonstrate, warlords are able to act in this capacity, at least over the short term. But regrettably this does not lead to the construction of state institutions or sustainable economic development. Instead, their role and importance to state leaders is directly related to the prolonged instability associated with weak (or no) governance.
As Marten acknowledges, with few existent theories on modern warlords, the book’s primary theoretical contribution is to advance theory development as opposed to the rigorous demands of theory testing. Toward this end, the overall analysis “is an exercise in inductive and policy-relevant theory building, more or less from scratch” (p. 16). Four cases of modern warlords are investigated: the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan, the province of Ajara and the district of Upper Kodori in Georgia, Chechnya in Russia, and the Sahwa (the Arabic word for awakening) and Sons of Iraq (SOI) in Iraq. The narratives and analysis of each of the cases are remarkably rich and exhaustive, dexterously combining both primary and secondary sources. Even without the theoretical and policy contributions, the four cases are of tremendous value for anyone interested in a better understanding of these remote but strategically significant regions.
In addition to understanding modern warlords, Marten’s analysis also addresses the subject of legitimate authority, first raised by Max Weber (1947) in The Theory of Social and Economic Organization. According to Weber, legitimate political authority can be based on three foundations or sources: tradition, legal-rational rules and decision-making procedures, and charisma. Legitimate authority in traditional societies is based on face-to-face personal connections and long-standing traditions that have existed seemingly forever. In contrast, political authority in the modern nation-state derives its legitimacy from an impersonal set of rules, often codified in a written constitution. Finally, charismatic authority is vested in one person based on extraordinary vision and/or accomplishments. Whatever its base, legitimate political authority is essential to a stable, functioning political system. Although these classifications are ideal types, they continue to be of tremendous utility in comprehending the political process in states. Marten’s analysis also utilizes Weber’s categorization—mostly the tension between modern legal-rational authority and traditional authority. Since the state’s legitimate authority does not extend into the various regions, Marten argues that warlords become the answer for state leaders.
However, Marten makes it clear throughout the analysis that warlords base their control on neither tradition nor legal-rational rules. Instead they exert control through the use of coercion and/or distribution of material support. Warlords are defined as “individuals who control small pieces of territory using a combination of force and patronage” (p. 3). And as noted, they do so, at least initially, at the behest of the leaders of weak states. To fund and maintain their rule, warlords often resort to criminal activities and extralegal violence. Furthermore, they enlist weak, greedy, and corrupt government officials in their enterprises to both facilitate their activities and limit the ability of the central state to monitor and regulate their influence. Thus, although warlords enable weak states to exert de facto sovereignty over territory that might otherwise remain ungovernable at a potentially lower cost, the price in terms of legitimate authority is very substantial. With the traditional authority of tribes and clan structures distorted and legal-rational authority meaningless, the populations in territories ruled by warlords base their compliance on calculations related to fears of violence and/or financial gain. In certain circumstances, this relationship can result in short- to medium-term stability; however, over the long term the prospects of establishing (or reestablishing) legitimate authority in these regions remain bleak. It is to this point that Marten’s analysis offers some very important insights into the exercise of political control in the observations and descriptions of warlord authority. For instance, in the cases involving the warlords or official maliks in the FATA in Pakistan and Ramzan Kadyrov in Chechnya, stable (if inefficient) political authority has developed. Perhaps in certain circumstance, warlords can act as transitional agents in the transition from traditional authority to a stage closer to legal-rational authority characteristic of more modern state authority. Certainly, there are many reasons to remain pessimistic of this outcome. Nonetheless, Marten’s analysis points to a particular form of authority in chronic competition with Weber’s ideal types.
Although the primary goal of the book is a better understanding of the emergence of warlords and the dynamics underpinning their rule, Marten also makes an important theoretical and policy-related contribution on mechanisms for undermining these actors, particularly as their utility to state control and governance decreases and their malevolent activities increase. In the case of Georgia, forceful and direct action taken by President Mikhail Saakashvili against Aslan Abashidze in Ajara was able to ride the province of the erstwhile warlord and replace him with the more legitimate state authority based in Tbilisi. The president’s success however hinged on his ability to act in a nondemocratic fashion and required extensive intelligence on local patronage structures. While offering a potential solution, the Georgian case suggests that for weak states there may be an inherent tension between liberal democratic political institutions and the establishment of state control throughout the country. Although not new, Marten’s analysis extends the field’s understanding of this tension. The second mechanism that has the potential to undermine the power of local warlords involves less state action and instead emphasizes the presence of regional economic opportunities for the local population. As demonstrated in the case of the FATA in Pakistan, the oil boom of the 1970s created numerous job opportunities for the people of the FATA. Many responded to the prospects of better paying jobs by moving to the Gulf region. This newfound wealth, outside the control of the official maliks, enabled a significant number of them to circumvent warlord patronage and control, thus weakening their hold and utility.
However, although forceful and effective state action or the creation of new economic opportunities may undermine the local economic resources of warlords, Marten’s analysis stresses a seemingly omnipresent spoiler—external actors. In all cases except Ramzan Kadyrov (at least not yet), once warlords found their economic resources and political mandate threatened by the central government, they were able to turn to international players to make up the difference. Either neighboring states such as Russia or transnational organizations like al-Qaeda, these outsiders can frustrate the best efforts to eliminate warlords. Humanitarian and economic aid from international organizations and NGOs is also often appropriated by warlords at the expense of the local population.
Marten concludes the analysis with a set of hypotheses that provide very useful guidance for future scholars and policy makers interested in subject of contemporary local strongmen. Recent turmoil in the North Africa and the existence of numerous fledgling and weak democratic countries reiterates the importance of this topic for all those concerned with stable, constructive, and legitimate government authority. Two additional areas of investigation are also worthy of attention: a more thorough understanding of the internal workings of warlord organizations and the potential positive role of international actors in dealing with them. Admittedly, the first is by definition extremely difficult if not outright dangerous. The possibility of a more positive role for outside actors is perhaps more promising. Even if designing strategies for outright eliminating local strongmen remains problematic, hopefully international actors will be able to develop mechanisms for assisting the local population in a way that circumvents the reach of warlords and thus contributes to their eventual marginalization.
As briefly noted, Kimberly Marten has made a major theoretical and policy-relevant contribution to the field’s understanding of these illusive and dangerous actors. Also, readers not only will better understand how they come to and maintain their power, but also will be equipped with a new framework for analyzing the challenges and choices confronting weak states in their efforts at consolidating modern, legal rational authority and accommodating the demands for security and economic development.