Abstract
(a) International law, organization and administration / Droit international, organisation et administration internationales
72.990 ANGELIS, Gabriele de —
Based on an analysis of the structure of incentives inherent to the architecture of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the paper defends the ESM’s inability to prevent, mitigate, and resolve financial crises. The paper presents the main features of the ESM, and illustrates how its governance architecture results from a model and a practice of European integration in which the pooling of sovereign powers goes along with the member states‚ attempt to maintain control over the use of those powers. In the case of monetary integration, such a model produces dysfunctional results in that it impedes efficient control of systemic risks. The paper puts forward a number of suggestion as to how a restructuring of the institutional architecture could enable it to perform the role it has been designed for. The paper also shows what ought to change in the relation between national and supranational sovereignty for this to happen. [R]
72.991 ASANTE, Doris, et al. —
The Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda is anchored in ten UN Security Council resolutions addressing gender equality and women’s rights in peace and security governance. The codification of the WPS agenda in the adopted resolutions establishes standards of practice to be adopted by UN member states and entities to prioritise women’s role as agents in peace and security settings and respond to women’s specific security needs. This research explores the influence of UN Security Council Resolution 2242, adopted by the Council in 2015, particularly the provisions related to counter-terrorism and preventing and countering violent extremism (CT and P/CVE). Drawing on analysis of policy documents and interview data from the UK, Australia, and Sweden, the article argues that resolution 2242 is driving a degree of engagement, if not alignment, between WPS and CT and P/CVE. [R, abr.]
72.992 BARANOWSKI, Pawel ; BENNANI, Hamza ; DORYŃ, Wirginia —
We examine whether a tone shock derived from European Central Bank communication helps predict ECB monetary policy decisions. To this purpose, we first use a bag-of-words approach and several dictionaries on the ECB’s Introductory Statements to derive a measure of tone. Next, we orthogonalise the tone measure on the latest data available to market participants to compute the tone shock. Finally, we relate the tone shock to future ECB monetary policy decisions. We find that the tone shock is significantly and positively related to future ECB monetary policy decisions, even when controlling for market expectations of monetary policy and the Governing Council’s inter-meeting communication. [R, abr.]
72.993 BELLAMY, Alex J. ; HUNT, Charles T. —
The protection of civilians has become the principal issue on which UN peacekeeping missions are judged, but its principles and methods require refinement. [R]
72.994 BERGMANN, Julian ; MÜLLER, Patrick —
Recent years have witnessed renewed efforts to advance integration in the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), including in the domain of military and civilian capability development. Despite recent progress, CSDP reforms have often been slow to materialize, lag behind the reform ambitions of key EU foreign policy actors, and fail to address important shortcomings experienced by CSDP. This article addresses why this might be by exploring the evolution of CSDP crisis-management through a failing forward approach, which charts the course of integration dynamics, identified by neofunctionalism and liberal intergovernmentalism. Our case studies of the European Peace Facility (EPF) and the Civilian CSDP Compact (CCC) demonstrate how the long-term integrative dynamics in EU military and civilian crisis-management are marked by a cycle of crisis followed by incomplete institutional reforms, policy feedback, experiential learning. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.213]
72.995 BRIGGS, Ryan C. —
Foreign-aid projects typically have local effects, so they need to be placed close to the poor if they are to reduce poverty. I show that, conditional on local population levels, World Bank (WB) project aid targets richer parts of countries. This relationship holds over time and across world regions. I test five donor-side explanations for pro-rich targeting using a pre-registered conjoint experiment on WB Task Team Leaders (TTLs). TTLs perceive aid-receiving governments as most interested in targeting aid politically and controlling implementation. They also believe that aid works better in poorer or more remote areas, but that implementation in these areas is uniquely difficult. These results speak to debates in distributive politics, international bargaining over aid, and principalagent issues in international organizations. The results also suggest that tweaks to WB incentive structures to make ease of project implementation less important may encourage aid to flow to poorer parts of countries. [R]
72.996 CAPPS, Patrick ; PALMER OLSEN, Henrik —
It has recently been suggested that the study of international legal life should take an ‘empirical turn’: a turn which has often focused on how patterns of authority emerge and operate in relation to international courts. In what follows it is argued that this empiricism fails to distinguish (for the purposes of sociological inquiry) authority from various other concepts such as power or consensus in the study of international law and courts. This is because this method focuses only on overt signs, such as observable action or statements of intention, and at the level of the sign these concepts are not obviously distinguishable. However, one solution to this problem, which is to collapse socially significant and distinct categories such as authority and consensus into a broad category of ‘power’, requires the adoption of an implausible and inconsistent view of agency in explanations of legal authority. [R, abr.]
72.997 CLOSA, Carlos —
Several EU governments have infringed the obligation to respect ‘rule of law’ as demanded by the European Union Treaty but, despite its supranational features, the EU has done little to sanction those violations. Why? The European Union’s institutional features paradoxically permit (and even encourage) logics that might be inhibiting its sanctioning capacity. Thus, a partisanship logic informs the European Parliament and this protects errant states. Then, the Commission, rather than acting assertively, anticipates the Council’s stance and adapts also its actions to anticipate a ‘compliance dilemma’ (i.e. compliance depends ultimately on the good will and cooperation of domestic authorities). The Commission prefers to channel its sanctioning activity via other softer instruments (e.g. infringement procedures). Finally, a distaste for increasing EU competence, ideological sympathy for illiberal governments, or fears of spillovers from sanctioning activity inform the action of governments within the Council. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1016]
72.998 CONANT, Lisa —
Developments in EU citizenship rights meet expectations of the ‘failing forward’ framework that fuses insights from liberal intergovernmentalist and neofunctionalist integration theories, whereby member state disagreements produce an incomplete form of EU citizenship that fails to treat individuals equally. Legal challenges to discriminatory treatment fit neofunctionalist expectations, with the European Court of Justice (ECJ) extending social rights for EU citizens incrementally. Resulting tensions between the evolution of rights and intergovernmental contestation fuels ‘failing forward’ in the form of the de-coupling of law and practice. Despite their limited impact, expanding rights sparked politicization that suggests postfunctionalist failures of European solidarity and declining trust in the ECJ. Most damaging to integration, however, is the lack of voting rights in national elections for mobile EU citizens. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.213]
72.999 CONCEICAO-HELDT, Eugénia da —
The Lisbon Treaty enhanced the role of the EP in free trade agreements. This article offers a comprehensive theoretical and empirical account of this new delegation design in EU trade governance. Specifically, it addresses the question how the preference cohesiveness of multiple principals — the Council of Ministers as a de jure principal and the Parliament as a de facto principal — shapes the Commission’s discretion in negotiating trade agreements. Exploring these two conjectures through a combination of primary materials and interviews, this contribution posits that those configurations of low degree of cohesiveness within the Council and high cohesiveness within the Parliament or high cohesiveness of the Council and low cohesiveness within the Parliament increase Commission discretion. A configuration of low cohesiveness within and between multiple principals, by contrast, is more likely to lead to paralysis of the negotiation process. [R]
72.1000 DALMER, Natalia —
Since the aftermath of the 1999 Kosovo Conflict, UNEP has addressed the environmental dimension of insecurities and turned to peacebuilding. This has been risky because it strays close to conflict prevention, identification, or resolution, which lie outside of UNEP’s mandate. I argue that this change in approach results from knowledge creation. UNEP’s experiences about the linkage between environmental degradation and insecurity in postconflict settings motivated its search for opportunities that would legitimize its contribution to postconflict peacebuilding. Seizing on the UN’s Peacebuilding Architecture, UNEP established ECP and, through the program, aimed to develop environmental peacebuilding as a concern through three distinct but interrelated knowledge-building practices: knowledge collection, strategic interpretation, and implementation. [R]
72.1001 DEBRE, Maria Josepha —
The Arab Spring marks a puzzling shift in the sanction politics of the Arab League: for the first time, the Arab League suspended member states for matters of internal affairs by majority vote. This article argues that survival politics can explain the changing sanction politics of the Arab League. To re-legitimize rule during this unprecedented moment, member states selectively supported some protest movements to signal their understanding of public demands for change without committing to domestic reform. Contrasting case studies of the Arab League’s suspension of Libya and Syria and its simultaneous support for military intervention against protestors in Bahrain illustrate how concerns for regime legitimation and a short-lived alliance between Saudi Arabia and Qatar contributed to the sanctioning decisions. The Arab League can thus be considered a case of negative democracy protection, where regional sanctions are employed to selectively preserve authoritarian rule. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1016]
72.1002 DÍAZ, Antonia —
This paper argues that investing in public institutions and goods are the best tool for shielding the economy against events similar to Covid-19 because private agents cannot foresee extremely unlikely events and there are markets where informational problems are pervasive. This is even more true in a confederation such as the European Union, where the right mix of public transfers and public goods is critical in minimizing incentive problems related to consolidating the single market and European integration. The Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-27 and the Fund Next Generation are steps in this direction. [R]
72.1003 DIERX, Adriaan ; ILZKOVITZ, Fabienne —
This paper examines how the ‘failing forward’ framework can contribute to explaining developments in EU competition policy, a policy domain where supranational and national forces have interacted over more than sixty years. The concepts of incompleteness of reforms and forward momentum, which are at the core of this framework, have been adapted to reflect the realities of this policy. In this area, the decentralisation of responsibilities to the national level does de facto correspond to a forward momentum towards a more effective competition policy enforcement. The globalization and the digitalization of the economy, and more recently the COVID-19 pandemic, pose new challenges. However, as it can count on strong supranational institutions and on its indispensability for the preservation of the single market, EU competition policy should be able to adapt to the changing environment. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.213]
72.1004 DONNELLY, Shawn —
Failing forward describes an endogenous cycle of EU institution-building through lowest-common denominator breakthroughs in Council. This article adds a dynamic called failing outward, in which a powerful country steers EU law and policy from outside the EU. Where strong Council deadlocks persist during crises, and a powerful state possesses a critical, excludable resource, it will make access conditional on EU rules and institutions that reflect its own interests rather than Council compromises. A non-EU institution helps it do this, entrenching conditionality. Repeated institutional fixes follow as the system fails (some) other Member States. This model is applied to Germany’s effective authority through the European Stability Mechanism over Council and Commission in determining EMU reforms, including Banking Union. [R] [See Abstr. 72.213]
72.1005 DÖRFLER, Thomas ; GEHRING, Thomas —
We examine how analogy-based collective decision-making of member states contributes to the endogenous emergence of informal rules and the incremental change of international organizations (IOs). Decisionmaking by analogy is an important characteristic of day-to-day decisionmaking in IOs. Relating current decisions to previous ones through analogies drives incremental change and simultaneously reinforces organizational resilience. Whereas the foreign policy analysis literature shows that analogies can be used as cognitive shortcuts in fuzzy and complex foreign policy situations, we focus on their use to overcome social ambiguity (indeterminacy) of coordination situations in IOs. Drawing on psychological conceptions, we develop two micro-level mechanisms that elucidate the effects of analogy-based collective decisionmaking in member-driven IOs. [R, abr.]
72.1006 EGAN, Suzanne —
This article responds to persistent critiques of the value of the UN human rights treaty system and ongoing efforts to increase its perceived ineffectiveness. Rather than analyze specific strategies for reform, the article draws on theoretical insights from the emerging field of enterprise transformation to analyze the reasons why reform of the treaty system has proved so intractable. By doing so, its central aim is to focus debate on how current plans to revisit the issue of treaty reform by the UN in 2020 might profitably be redirected and indeed reconceptualized. It begins by providing some background and context to the establishment and operation of the treaty system; the challenges that have been encountered over the years in making it more effective in practice; and the fate of reform efforts generated to date. [R]
72.1007 ERSHOVA, Anastasia ; POPA, Sebastian Adrian —
The EP plays a crucial role in defining the power of implementing agencies in the EU. We move beyond the ‘unitary actor’ approach to the EP and examine the influence of intra-parliamentary dynamics on the delegation patterns in the Union. We maintain that party polarization as well as the level of policy salience shape delegation patterns in the EU. Reflecting the differences between political elites, increasing party polarization motivates the EP to curtail the prospect of bureaucratic drift when delegating power. Lacking effective control mechanisms over the supranational agency, the EP hinders the extent of delegated power if the Commission oversees the policy. We do not find policy salience to be influential for the EP’s delegation decisions. We test these conjunctions using data from the Euromanifesto project and the dataset on delegation dynamic in the Union. [R, abr.]
72.1008 FÄGERSTEN, Björn ; HÅKANSSON, Calle —
The EU has for a long time had ambitions to achieve some form of ‘Strategic Autonomy’, often understood as a capability to conduct security policy independent of the USA. With the EU’s Global Strategy (EUGS) from 2016, this objective, albeit without a clear definition, is part of the public EU strategy. This new level of ambition places high demands on the independent intelligence capacities for the member states as well as for the EU at the collective level. As the world moves towards multipolarity and the geopolitization of the economic sphere, the ambition for strategic autonomy has a broader meaning, such as the ability to conduct an independent trade policy or to choose a supplier of 5G infrastructure. In light of this, this article aims to analyse strategic autonomy as a security policy objective and the various intelligence needs it raises. [R, abr.]
72.1009 FREUDLSPERGER, Christian —
The EU’s Common Commercial Policy (CCP) is more fragile than the label ‘exclusive competence’ suggests. Ratification conflicts have increased since the 1980s and have further intensified in recent years. Simultaneously, the EU’s trade competence witnessed a progressive expansion in consecutive treaty reforms. In recourse to the ‘failing forward’ (Jones, et al., 2016) argument, this paper argues that recurring failure and progressive integration have been equally constitutive elements in the CCP’s historical development. The substantive expansion of the international ‘deep trade’ agenda repeatedly laid bare the gaps in and fueled intergovernmental conflict over the scope of the EU’s competences. Over time, these instabilities acted as a catalyst of integration, supporting supranational entrepreneurs’ quest for — and member state governments’ acceptance of — further yet ever-incomplete delegation. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.213]
72.1010 GASTINGER, Markus —
Which member states could leave the EU in the years ahead? To answer this question, I develop the ‘EU Exit Index’ measuring the exit propensities of all EU member states. The index highlights that the UK was an outlier and uniquely positioned to leave the EU. While all other states are far behind the United Kingdom, the index still reveals substantial variation among them. Moreover, the index allows monitoring the development of exit propensities over time. It shows that the EU is in better shape today than before the Brexit referendum and that, currently, no further exits are on the horizon. Still, this could change in the future and the EU Exit Index provides systematic and reproducible measurements to track this development. [R]
72.1011 GHOSN, Faten, et al. —
While the UNHCR promotes voluntary repatriation as the preferred solution to refugee situations, there is little understanding of variation in refugees’ preferences regarding return. We develop a theoretical framework suggesting two mechanisms influencing refugees’ preferences. First, refugees’ lived experiences in their country of origin prior to displacement and in their new host country create a trade-off in feelings of being anchored to their origin or host country. Second, firsthand exposure to traumas of war provides some refugees with a sense of competency and self-efficacy, leading them to prefer to return home. We test these relationships with data from a survey among Syrian refugees hosted in Lebanon. We find refugees exposed to violence during the war have a sense of attachment to Syria and are most likely to prefer return. [R, abr.]
72.1012 GIZELIS, T. I. —
Why are civil society organizations so often unable to make a difference during the transition to peace? I argue that the contributions of local civil society organizations and women’s organizations to post-conflict peacebuilding should be understood in terms of the networks that emerge during the peacebuilding process. Horizontal network conditions are essential for successful post-conflict reconstruction. Yet external actors often implement policies that strengthen hierarchical links at the expense of such horizontal networks. To explore the types of networks that emerge in post-conflict reconstruction, I use semistructured interviews conducted in Liberia. The evidence suggests that emerging horizontal networks are more robust in areas where local communities and women have a tradition of organizing. However, these networks remain fairly unstable. [R, abr.]
72.1013 HÄGGSTRÖM, Henrik —
Intelligence service as a method to produce analytical reports has always been controversial within the UN as the use of secret information raises ethical dilemmas linked to espionage and impartiality. As a result of this critical approach, UN missions throughout history have lacked their own capacity for intelligence gathering and analysis. Instead, they have had to rely on the intelligence capability of the troop contributing countries. This has created ad hoc solutions and made it difficult for peace missions to manage their own personnel’s security and to create peace and stability in the field of action. However, the UN’s critical approach to conducting its own intelligence service changed fundamentally when the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon in July 2017 adopted a new Peace Keeping Intelligence Policy in peacekeeping operations. [R, abr.]
72.1014 HALL, Ian ; JEFFERY, Renée —
Despite its long-standing rhetorical support for an international criminal justice regime, India continues to resist signing the 1998 Rome Statute that created the International Criminal Court. This article explores the reasons for this reluctance. It observes that during the negotiations that led to the Rome Statute, India voiced multiple objections to the design of the ICC, to how it was to function, and to the crimes that it was to address. It argues that analyzing the negotiating strategy India employed during those talks allows us to discern which reasons mattered more to New Delhi and what accounts for India’s ongoing refusal to sign the Rome Statute. [R]
72.1015 HELLQUIST, Elin —
This article offers a novel argument about regional sanctions as in-group peer review, drawing on an analogy from the world of academic publishing. Through their leaning on community-derived authority, equality before the peer, and constructive criticism, regional sanctions have a previously overlooked legitimacy advantage over out-group sanctions used by external actors. The article probes the empirical bearing of this argument for African Union (AU) sanctions against Egypt (2013) and Sudan (2019). Even in these contentious democratic crises, perceptions of sanctions in African media broadly support the theoretical intuition of regional sanctions as a form of peer review. It is, however, far from obvious that peer review leads to successful enforcement of democratic norms beyond urgent crisis. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1016]
72.1016 HELLQUIST, Elin ; PALESTINI, Stefano —
Regional organisations (ROs) around the world increasingly use sanctions against member states in situations of democratic crisis. This special issue unpacks the trend of RO sanctions in regions that are both democracy-dense (Europe and the Americas) and autocracy-dense (Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East). We argue that regional sanctions cannot be taken at face value as instruments of democracy promotion. Instead, the politics of regional sanctions unveil controversies over the substance and limits of democracy, as well as over practical processes of regional interference in a sphere that is at the core of ‘domestic affairs’. In this introductory article, we situate the special issue at the crossroads of debates within comparative regionalism, sanctions, and democracy/autocracy promotion, and discuss how the membership premise crucially distinguishes RO measures from foreign policy and United Nations (UN) sanctions. [R] [Introduction to a thematic issue of the same title. See Abstr. 72.997, 1001, 1015, 1033, 1041, 1045, 1050]
72.1017 HOWARTH, David ; QUAGLIA, Lucia —
We apply the ‘failing forward’ approach to analyse the negotiations on and design of reforms to Eurozone economic governance to tackle the Covid-19-related crisis of Economic and EMU. This crisis highlights both spill-overs from major asymmetries in EMU and weaknesses in the incomplete economic governance of the Eurozone. We focus on the financial support mechanisms agreed upon after intergovernmental negotiations in major crisis situations. These reforms represent compromise solutions that reflect well-entrenched disagreements among member states. We explain why more far-reaching reforms to Eurozone economic governance — notably, the adoption of mutualized Eurodenominated debt and the generalized use of grants over loans — have not been adopted, despite the severity of the Covid-19-related crisis. These reforms fail to address and, rather, contribute to existing asymmetries, thus sowing the seeds of future crises. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.213]
72.1018 KASTRATI, Bilbil ; UHAN, Samo —
The article considers whether the EU’s CSDP missions are a suitable crisis-management mechanism for post-conflict situations, along with the EU’s relevance in crisis management at all. For this purpose, the EU’s biggest CSDP civilian mission EULEX was chosen as a research case study. The research results reveal that EULEX has not implemented its mandate, not met the expectations of security consumers, not made any difference on the ground, and cannot be seen as an example the EU should rely on in its future missions. Further, EULEX shows that CSDP missions suffer from many shortfalls and the EU CFSP from a capability expectations gap. The article concludes that the EULEX mission does not show the EU’s relevance in the crisis-management of post-conflict situations. [R]
72.1019 KORNPROBST, Markus ; STROBL, Stephanie —
Do global health institutions keep up with globalization forces? We contend that they seriously lag behind. While medical knowledge becomes more and more refined in showing how diseases spread globally, the political order meant to address this problem is barely global. It is global in terms of the promises it makes in declarations and even legally binding instruments (institutional foreground). But many entrenched political practices of interaction do not keep these promises (institutional background). We explain this with the dominance of a traditional diplomatic ‘feel of the game’ in which often narrowly defined national interests, positioning battles among states, and a subordination of global health under considerations of international security and economics prevail. Based on this diagnosis, we discuss three scenarios for the further evolution of the global health order: (1) the persistence of current institutions, (2) revisions of the institutional foreground and persistence of the background, and (3) a qualitative break that makes amendments to both. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1020 KYRIAZI, Anna ; VISCONTI, Francesco —
In this paper we investigate the association between transnationalism, that is, interactions and cultural competences that cut across EU member states, and supranational political engagement. Generally, it is thought that EU citizens’ participation in EU politics is hampered by the perception that the EU is too distant and too technocratic. Against this backdrop, we propose that transnationalism contributes to reducing this perception, as transnational individuals feel part of a supranational community and are thus more likely to get involved in EU politics than if their cross-border experience is absent or poor. Generalised structural equation models with a latent variable of EU-level political involvement (based on cognitive mobilisation, efficacy, and self-reported voting in European Parliament elections) return significant associations with transnational experiences and practices. [R]
72.1021 LEVIN, Andrew —
To what extent do peacekeeper fatalities affect states’ contributions to UN operations? While the deaths of peacekeepers are thought to be a factor in states’ decisions to reduce the magnitude of their participation in a mission, not all states respond similarly to peacekeeper fatalities. I hypothesize that democracies and wealthy countries are likely to be more sensitive to peacekeeper deaths than their non-democratic and poorer counterparts. Analyses of UN peacekeeping operations between 1990 and 2011 confirm that peacekeeper fatalities generally have a negative effect upon the size of countries’ contributions to peacekeeping operations, and that wealthy countries are likely to make larger decreases to their contributions than poorer countries. There is less evidence, however, that democracies are more sensitive to peacekeeper fatalities than non-democracies. [R]
72.1022 LUBBE, W. D. ; SPIJKERS, Otto —
Both the United Nations (UN) and the African Union (AU) present themselves as a constitutional order, in the sense that they both set out to define the common values of their community – the global and African communities respectively – and to establish supranational institutions to promote and protect these values within their community. Because the two legal orders have a similar ambition, we believe it is interesting to analyse how the two can learn from and complement each other in the way they further define and specify that ambition, and in the way they attempt to concretise and implement it. We thus seek to establish the extent to which global constitutionalism and African regional constitutionalism can strengthen each other in the promotion of key constitutional values. [R, abr.]
72.1023 MAGONE, José —
In the post-Lisbon constitutional architecture, the rotating presidency of the Council of Ministers of the EU remains a vital part of intergovernmental decision-making. Its leadership activity is mainly behind closed doors to avoid the politicization of legislative processes. This study aims to contextualize the presidency as a crucial part of European integration due to its position between formal and informal processes. Informality gives the presidency time to create consensus and be flexible in its negotiation. Despite large countries’ attempts to reduce the importance of the rotating presidency, small states have resisted this temptation. In this contribution, the rotating presidency is seen from the point of view of European integration theory which is discussed in depth. [R, abr.]
72.1024 MANULAK, Michael W. —
The rise of informal international institutions has been one of the most significant developments in institutional design and choice since the 1990s. While states have increasingly opted for informal governance, little is known about the character of intergovernmental relations in these settings. Scholars, for instance, debate whether great powers dominate such institutions, or whether influence can be exercised by a wider array of players. Drawing from the author’s experience as a government representative within the Proliferation Security Initiative, a leading informal institution, this article provides a theory-driven analysis of intergovernmental interactions within such bodies. It demonstrates that diplomacy within informal institutions tends to assume a decentralized, networked quality that favors actors positioned at the center of intergovernmental networks. In doing so, the article highlights clear means through which central network positions confer influence. [R, abr.]
72.1025 MARTIN, Aaron R. —
The literature on party group switching in the European Parliament contends that members re-affiliate primarily for strategic reasons. This article advances the discussion by also considering the occurrence of non-strategic switches which follow the collapse of weakly institutionalized groups. Using an original dataset which includes DW-Nominate scores (1979-2009), I operationalize policy-seeking behavior among strategic switchers by deriving member- and delegation-to-group policy distance variables. The pooled logistic regression models using a penalized maximum likelihood estimator make it possible to address quasi complete separation, and the results show that members from large groups and delegations have significantly lower odds of switching. [R, abr.]
72.1026 MARTIN DE ALMAGRO, Maria —
Most discussions on knowledge production in peacebuilding and conflict management have focused on the study of epistemic communities and strategic coalitions of global and local actors. This article shifts the focus away from who produces knowledge to the underexplored question of how knowledge is generated, repackaged, deployed, or ignored. Combining sociology of knowledge approaches with feminist governmentality scholarship, I critically interrogate the role of reports as knowledge production artifacts and report writing as bureaucratic practices that serve to design and implement UN Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) projects on Sustaining Peace. Specifically, I analyze the role of reports and reporting in four PBF projects on gender and reconciliation in Liberia, and I show how through the mechanisms of persuasion and homogenization, reports serve not only to measure success and failure and to produce contextualized knowledge, but also to exert symbolic power, (re)producing authoritative knowledge on women, gender and reconciliation, and giving legitimacy to external interventions. [R, abr.]
72.1027 MIEŃKOWSKA-NORKIENE, Renata —
Conceptual framework for understanding the degree and scope of the political impact of the case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union – Definition of ‘the political’ – Carl Schmitt’s concept of political realism – Chantal Mouffe’s agonistic theory of ‘the political’ – ‘The political’ in the light of three classical categories: (1) polity, (2) policy, and (3) politics – Framework for understanding polity as competing values, policy as conflicts over resources, politics as fights for power – Criteria of political significance and impact of the Court of Justice case law – Two illustrations: Case C-391/09 Runeviè-Vardyn v Vilniaus miesto savivaldybës administracijaand Case C-192/18 European Commission v Republic of Poland set against the broader context of politically significant cases from the Court of Justice of the EU. [R]
72.1028 MIGLIORATI, Marta —
Drawing on a principal-agent framework the article analyses the EU politics of delegation in the post-Maastricht era. By means of statistical analysis, it tests the impact of several variables upon the selection of national and supranational agents, as well as on the discretion they enjoy, on the basis of a recently collected data-set of EU laws. Findings reveal that pooling and policy complexity favour the involvement of supranational actors in the implementation of EU laws. Moreover, the degree of supranational integration of a policy affects the likelihood of choosing supranational implementers. The Commission enjoys higher discretion vis-à-vis national actors when qualified majority voting applies, and when higher levels of conflict in the Council of Ministers is present. [However], conflict between the EP and the Council under codecision seems associated with lower supranational discretion. [R, abr.]
72.1029 MOSLER, Martin —
I empirically examine whether autocratic governments use decoy voting in the UN General Assembly to hide repressive behavior of their regimes. Previous research has identified the State of Israel as a unique decoy. My sample includes votes on all 4,878 contested resolutions involving Israel between 1950 and 2018. The vote agreement rate of fully autocratic regimes with Israel is on average 3.2 percentage points or 18 percent of a standard deviation lower than among fully democratic governments for Israel- and Palestinian issues-related resolutions. The effect is more pronounced for resolutions that primarily deal with the State of Israel, with an estimated decline in voting alignment of 3.6 percentage points or 20 percent of a standard deviation. [R, abr.]
72.1030 MUSHORIWA, Linda —
This article discusses the contentious issue of Head of State of immunity before the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the context of the historical link between the colonial confrontation of the 19th c. and the development of the doctrines of state sovereignty and immunity. It examines the philosophical underpinnings of the immunity in international criminal law debate and concludes that a clear understanding of the role that colonialism played in the development of international law is pivotal to understanding the concerns raised by the African Union and individual African leaders regarding the indictment of African leaders by the ICC. [R]
72.1031 NAGAKOSHI, Yuzuki —
In 2018, the International Criminal Court ruled that it has jurisdiction over the Myanmar government’s deportation of the Rohingya to Bangladesh. The basis for its jurisdiction was that Bangladesh is an ICC state party, although Myanmar is not. This decision has raised questions on the applicability of the decision to other crimes, including genocide. Moreover, its potential applicability to other situations that have taken place in a non-state party became the subject of much debate. The author concludes that the ICC may exercise its jurisdiction over Myanmar’s alleged genocide but not over all international crimes that generate refugees. [R]
72.1032 NAKANISHI, Yumiko —
Recently, a new reaction from one of the most stubborn national courts, the German Federal Constitutional Court, occurred. It changed its attitude towards the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU and the preliminary ruling procedure in the so-called ‘the right to be forgotten II’ case in November 2019. One of the reasons for this change lies in the growth of the role of national inferior courts and the weak influence of the German Federal Constitutional Court. This article describes the trilateral relations between national inferior courts, supreme courts or constitutional courts and the Court of Justice of the European Union and how the German Federal Constitutional Court changed its attitude towards the EU Charter and the Court of Justice of the EU. [R, abr.]
72.1033 PALESTINI, Stefano —
Under which conditions do regional organizations in the Americas impose sanctions on member states that violate democracy? To address this question, the article combines a qualitative comparative analysis applied to 55 presumed threats to democracy brought to the attention of regional organizations (ROs), and a process tracing analysis of two cases of the imposition of sanctions. The analysis reveals that ROs impose sanctions despite lack of support or even obstruction by the US, when the threats are committed against the incumbent in relatively weak member states. The unique case in which an RO suspended a relatively powerful state because of threats by the incumbent required the convergence of interests between ROs’ most powerful member states, and the support of the US. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1016]
72.1034 PIRCHER, Brigitte ; FARJAM, Mike —
This article presents a new and previously unchartered dataset on roll call votes for all 28 member states in the Council of the EU between 2010 and 2019 and studies the effects of politicisation on governments’ oppositional voting in the different policy areas. We contribute to the literature with two main findings. First, our study provides strong evidence for bottom-up politicisation, where Euroscepticism and the leftright positions of national political parties strongly affect governments’ voting in the Council. Second, we provide new evidence for a form of differentiated politicisation where ideological standpoints of political parties in government and opposition have different effects on oppositional voting in the various policy areas. [R]
72.1035 PRINCEN, Sebastiaan ; SIDERIUS, Katrijn ; VILLASANTE, Sebastián —
The policy studies literature is divided on how information-processing takes place in policy processes. Punctuated equilibrium theory claims that policymakers tend to process information disproportionately, giving more weight to some incoming signals than to others. By contrast, thermostatic models of policymaking argue that policymakers respond in a more proportionate way. In this paper, we analyse information processing in the adoption of Total Allowable Catches (TACs) under the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy. Based on a novel measure for the proportionality of information processing, it shows that over time TACs have become more closely aligned with incoming signals about fish stocks. This development can be explained through a combination of changing discourses around fisheries conservation and institutional adjustments in EU fisheries policy. [R, abr.]
72.1036 QUINN, David —
Authority of the European Central Bank (the Bank) over its operational norms in the eyes of market actors – Exogenous and endogenous authority and legitimacy – The reconciliation by the Bank and the Court of Justice of the EU (the Court) of the pre-existing norm and politicaleconomic reality with Article 123 TFEU – Sovereign lender of last resort – Eurozone Crisis – Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) – Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) – Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) [R]
72.1037 RAVN WEINRICH, Amalie —
This article analyses the citizenship regime of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Current literature on ASEAN regionalism has refrained from examining the link between community-building and citizenship building, and the prevailing assumption remains that ASEAN lacks a citizenship regime. This assumption derives from the premises that a regional citizenship regime is the result of the reconfiguration of national citizenship rights and that it is a legally defined status. By deploying the concept of citizenship regime based on the dimensions of rights, access, belonging, and responsibility mix, the article argues that there is an emerging citizenship regime in ASEAN built on citizenshiprelated policies. This citizenship regime is informal, developing, and atypical — and the unintentional outcome of ASEAN trying to fulfil its agenda on community-building. The analysis contributes to citizenship studies and ASEAN regionalism by offering a nuanced understanding of how citizenship regimes are built through citizenship-related policies and practices. [R]
72.1038 RUBINSON, Eyal —
What explains NATO’s decision to admit new members even when they fall short of the organisational expectations of democracy and adherence to human rights? After the end of the Cold War NATO put in place an elaborate scheme of democratic conditionality; however, recent waves of enlargement since 2004 have proven increasingly incompatible with these criteria. This paper argues that this policy results from gradual erosion in the prominence of democratic discourse within the organisation, normalising deviations from previous optimistic expectations that became increasingly unsustainable, inducing within-organisation socialisation. This process is paralleled by an increasingly hostile Russian foreign policy, that served as a catalyst for the cognitive normalisation process. [R, abr.]
72.1039 SANCHEZ SALGADO, Rosa —
This article analyses the verbal display and role of emotions in the EP. Contributing both to European Studies and Parliamentary studies, this article shows how emotions are expressed and how they reflect power and status dynamics. Emotions are indeed used differently depending on the power position of MEPs. This article also reveals that emotions may play a role in crisis situations by constraining the choices and policy solutions under consideration. This qualitative study compares parliamentary debates on two of the most relevant recent crises before 2020: the refugee crisis (2014-2017) and the economic crisis (2009-2014). Empirical evidence is drawn from the systematic in-depth contentanalysis of 25 EP debates. [R]
72.1040 SARVARIAN, Arman —
This article examines the developments on future action concerning the 2001 ILC Articles on the Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts (ARSIWA) in the Sixth Committee of the UN General Assembly. It reviews the past 20 years, from the presentation of the final draft at the 56th session in 2001, to the most recent debate at the 74th session in 2019. In scrutinising the procedural actions taken over the relevant period, it argues that the ARSIWA have ossified in the Sixth Committee even as they have continued to gain authority through application in practice. This ossification is due not only to divisions amongst delegations on future action but also to disagreements on a select number of provisions. [R, abr.]
72.1041 SCHEMBERA, Kerstin —
Regional organisations (ROs) increasingly act as promoters of democracy by applying sanctions against members who do not comply with collectively agreed norms. Despite the absence of an official sanctions policy, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) does interfere in certain ways into member states’ internal issues in some cases of norm violations. This study empirically explores how and why ASEAN decides to interfere or not in such situations. The findings derived from case studies on Cambodia and Myanmar, drawing on evidence from documents, media, and interview data reveal novel insights on ASEAN regionalism in the context of non-compliant member behaviour. I argue that the informal approach to regionalism provides ASEAN with a lot of room for discretion in responding to members’ norm violations. The article identifies geopolitical preferences, extra-regional interference, and legitimation as explanatory factors for the RO’s varying punitive actions. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1016]
72.1042 SCHMID, Lisa Katharina ; REITZENSTEIN, Alexander ; HALL, Nina —
Earmarked funding to international organizations (IO s) has increased significantly over the past two decades. International relations scholars have examined the causes of this trend, but know less about its effects on UN entities. This article identifies different types of earmarked funding, varying from low to high discretion delegated to IO s. Secondly, it examines trends in the UN Development Programme and UN Children’s Fund and finds that both have significant proportions of earmarked funding with low discretion. Drawing on thirty interviews, the article notes four implications of tightly earmarked financing: (1) higher transaction costs for IO s; (2) less predictable funding; (3) overhead costs that are rarely covered; and (4) increasing competition for financing. [R, abr.]
72.1043 SINHA, Aseema —
The liberal trade order is in crisis. I argue that the origins of the current crises lie in the underlying tension which exists in the World Trade Organization (WTO), magnified by a churning in global power dynamics. A dilemma at the heart of the WTO between two important goals of representativeness and effectiveness means that both goals cannot be pursued at the same time. Now, this inherent tension is being magnified by power shifts in the global economy most evident in the rise of emerging powers within the WTO, who demand more representation, and the retreat by the US towards a more inward-looking orientation; both together damage effectiveness. Simultaneously, new powers such as China and India are defending a ‘reformed multilateralism’ combined with selective protectionism with varying capacity. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1044 SIVAN-SEVILLA, Ido —
Despite promises by EU policymakers to “fundamentally change” cybersecurity certification, they have recently created a regime that is strikingly similar to already existing certification arrangements. Through a processtracing analysis based on 41 documents and 18 interviews, this article traces the development of the EU cybersecurity certification regime over the past two decades. It deconstructs certification into standardisation, accreditation, certification, and evaluation; analyses how each regime component changed over time; and discusses to what extent causal mechanisms that are derived from classic theories of EU integration explain the limited nature of policy change. The observed dynamics uncover a “Europeanization on Demand” model that allows national authorities to completely control the extent of integration. This study challenges the dichotomous understanding portrayed by EU integration literature, of mutually exclusive dynamics of market or core state powers integration. [R, abr.]
72.1045 SOYALTIN-COLELLA, Digdem —
Monitoring is the formal instrument through which the Council of Europe imposes social sanctions on its member countries by publicly exposing their wrongdoings. As a soft governance tool, monitoring is argued to have a limited impact on state policies. Yet, in Turkey, Council of Europe monitoring worked to promote pro-democratic change and then backfired through the escalation of authoritarian practices. This article shows that being subjected to Council of Europe monitoring can lead to democratic change if and when its sanctioning requirements fit the political agenda of the incumbents and empower them against domestic opponents. In the case of misfit, the political costs of aligning with the Regional Organisations’ sanctions increase for governments at home. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1016]
72.1046 TUOMINEN, Hanna —
Finland acted as the President of the EU Council in the second half of 2019. The Finnish Presidency program had an ambitious value-based agenda, which underlined the role of the EU as a community of values. This article studies why Finland chose to promote values, and what kind of political discussion preceded the presidency term. Secondly, the article focuses on the practical implementation of the common values outlined in the program. Thirdly, the article discusses how to evaluate the presidency, and whether Finland can be considered successful in its value promotion. The analysis draws from the key documents related to the Presidency, as well as on research interviews (N=33) with key Finnish politicians, civil servants and civil society experts in spring 2020. [R, abr.]
72.1047 VAN OMMEREN, Emile ; POLETTI, Arlo ; BIEVRE, Dirk De —
The European Commission keeps track of foreign trade barriers through its Market Access Strategy. In this study, we examine some of the key political-economic conditions under which the European Union decides whether and how to address these trade issues. Drawing on an original dataset of (allegedly) illegal foreign trade barriers faced by European Union businesses, we show that industries dominated by a few large companies are more successful in gaining the support of the Commission to challenge these foreign trade barriers. Moreover, we find that the European Commission’s strategy depends on the economic power relationship with the trading partner: the European Union privileges negotiations when seeking to enforce international trade rules against economically weaker states, while it prefers to use litigation against stronger trading partners. [R]
72.1048 VANTAGGIATO, Francesca Pia ; KASSIM, Hussein ; CONNOLLY, Sara —
The view that silos are endemic in organisations in general and the European Civil Service in particular has become increasingly widespread. Yet, silos are rarely investigated theoretically or empirically. What is a silo? What are the individual and organisational factors associated with silos? We propose a functionalist approach to silo definition and identification, which links individual and organisational tasks to expected intra-organisational interactions: we operationalize silos as clusters of employees lacking communication with other parts of the organization, and analyse civil servants and departments as bipartite networks of communication using stochastic blockmodeling. We explore the existence of silos in two European bureaucracies, which differ in mission, size and workforce composition: the European Commission and the General Secretariat of the Council. [R, abr.]
72.1049 VOETEN, Erik —
How does increasing the number of women on the bench affect the outcome of judicial proceedings? This article evaluates this question in the European Court of Human Rights using a new dataset that incorporates both the gender of judges and applicants to the Court. This allows us to examine whether female judges differentially evaluate human rights claimed filed by women. There are four main findings. First, women disproportionally file property rights claims. Second, the analysis confirms findings from the US context that female judges are more favorably disposed towards discrimination cases filed by women. Third, female judges are not more likely than male judges to support rights claims filed by women. Fourth, female judges are overall more likely to find violations, regardless of the gender of applicants. [R, abr.]
72.1050 WHITEHEAD, Laurence —
The six major regional organizations (ROs) covered in this special issue all originated prior to the rise of liberal internationalism, and were repurposed by it. After 1989 they converged towards a common discourse on democratic conditionality, and developed a capacity to discipline and sanction non-compliance, preferring persuasion and appeals to regional norms rather than coercion. This concluding overview highlights the relevance of such metaphors as ecosystem, family resemblance, and peer review; and directs attention to the temporal and spatial scope conditions of the cases considered; and to the bargaining involved. As the ecosystem of liberal internationalism and regional democratic solidarity has faded, ‘pushbacks’ have appeared from regimes ‘targeted’ for sanctions and/or ‘shaming.’ [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1016]
72.1051 ZOU Xiaolong ; WANG Chuan —
As non-governmental organizations (NGOs) assume incrementally important roles in global environmental governance, literature regarding their functions also multiplies. Studies are available about their features, structural advantages or impacts. However, very few have sufficiently explained what makes them tick in the international system as non-state actors. In this article, we argue that NGOs’ important position in global governance lies in its authority. We build our analysis on sociological institutionalism and the principal-agent models, arguing that NGOs are independent and autonomous with both inherent authority and granted authority by sovereign states or inter-governmental organizations (IGOs). It is through this authority that NGOs could function independently and autonomously in global governance instead of being the affiliated or appendant actors of parties. [R, abr.]
72.1052
Il y a un véritable défi à définir l’autonomie stratégique européenne, dans les approches divergent entre les pays membres de l’UE. Comment concevoir une souveraineté partagée, comment s’inscrire dans des cultures stratégiques différentes et comment se situer par rapport aux États-Unis? [R]
(b) Foreign policy and international relations / Politique étrangère et relations internationales
72.1053 6 [SIX], Perri ; HEIMS, Eva —
This article compares the explanatory power of five mainstream theories from International Relations, political science and public management in understanding why — when they are engaged in deepening conflict and tension and even preparations for wars — states might simultaneously sustain deepening cooperation in global regulatory bodies. Analysis of explanatory power focuses on trade-offs among five key methodological virtues, and on buffering as an indicator of state unitariness. The theories are examined against the crucial case of one state’s commitment to the first international regulatory regime, the International Telegraph Union (ITU) and the Submarine Cable Convention (SCC) of 1884, from the founding of the ITU in 1865 to the outbreak of the Great War. In this article, we use UK National Archives files to reconstruct Britain’s decisions in telegraphy policy as our case of a state’s decision-making. [R, abr.]
72.1054 ABDULATIPOV, Ramazan —
Despite all the difficulties and contradictions, processes related to the revival of Islam are currently under way in Dagestan, Chechnya, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Siberia and other Russian regions. [R]
72.1055 ADIPUTERA, Yunizar ; MISSBACH, Antje —
This article analyses Indonesia’s foreign policy with respect to Myanmar and the forced displacement of more than 1 million Rohingya refugees from Rakhine State, Myanmar. Its main concern is to evaluate the effectiveness of Indonesia’s policies, including diplomatic efforts and humanitarian aid contributions, in regard to finding a solution to the ongoing disaster that affects both Rohingya remaining in Myanmar and those who have found temporary sanctuary in Bangladesh. For its diplomatic and humanitarian engagement, the Indonesian government has explored various avenues and utilised a range of instruments, including the purposeful engagement of non-state actors and faith-based humanitarian organisations. Our inquiry predominantly focuses on the time between the first Andaman Sea crisis (May 2015) and the second Andaman Sea crisis (mid-2020). [R, abr.]
72.1056 ALBERT, Mathias ; LANGER, Kerrin —
Situated at the interface between IR and History, this contribution undertakes a historical reconstruction of practices of military force comparison. It conceptually builds upon an understanding of balance as a core observational scheme, as well as symbolically generalized medium of communication, in the construction and reproduction of world politics. The article’s main part reconstructs the evolution of military force comparisons as a central observational and comparative practice of, and between, states from the late 18th century until the present. We ask about who is comparing, who is being compared, what is being compared, and how comparisons are being done. We elaborate that practices of military force comparison are places of continuous negotiations about, and contestations of, the who, what, and how. [R, abr.]
72.1057 ALCOCEBA GALLEGO, M. A. —
The Spanish practice on diplomatic protection has followed the traditional model of public international law in relation to this topic: a state is not obliged under international law to exercise diplomatic protection on behalf of a national who has been injured as a result of an internationally wrongful act attributable to another state. There is a discretionary nature of state’s right to exercise diplomatic protection and there is not an individual right to diplomatic protection. [R, abr.]
72.1058 ARAUD, Gérard —
Le mode de gouvernance de D. Trump est brutal, mais reflète une réalité américaine qui a toujours prôné une forme d’isolationnisme. Les Européens doivent repenser leur avenir en faisant preuve de plus de pragmatisme et en innovant pour recréer une nouvelle base de discussions afin d’affronter les épreuves et défis de demain. [R] [Cf. Abstr. 72.1100]
72.1059 AYDIN, Umut —
In the post-Cold War era, a number of middle powers rose to prominence thanks to domestic reforms and a favourable international environment of economic and political globalization. These countries began to pursue middle power foreign policies, working actively in international organizations, engaging in areas such as conflict mediation, humanitarian assistance and the promotion of human rights, and helping to diffuse democracy and market reforms in their neighbourhoods. In this way, they contributed to the stability and expansion of the liberal international order in the post-Cold War period. Nonetheless, recent democratic and economic backsliding in these middle powers raises concerns. Focusing on the cases of Turkey and Mexico, this article explores how reversals in democratic and market reforms, exacerbated by recent trends towards deglobalization, influence emerging middle powers’ foreign policies and their potential contributions to the liberal international order. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1060 BAE Youngja —
This study tries to investigate how the semiconductor technology innovation in USA has been co-produced with the changing reality of and perception and international politics from the mid-1940s up to now. The concepts of creative insecurity and governed interdependence were used to explain, in the midst of increasing external threats, why and how US government and military have cooperated with the firms and universities in order to strengthen the semiconductor innovation capacity by providing R&D investments processing semiconductor organizing research consortium, and etc…[R]
72.1061 BÁTORA, Jozef —
This article proposes a complementary approach to analysing destabilization of the liberal international order (LIO) and argues that such challenges are related to endogenous institutional processes within the LIO. Faced with constraints of the core norms, rules and institutions of the LIO, states use interstitial organizations (INTOs) — new organizational forms recombining resources, rules, practices and structures from multiple institutional domains — allowing for innovative ways of delivering foreign policies. Using organization theory and new institutionalist approaches, the article outlines a three-dimensional analytical framework to the study of emergence of interstitial organizational forms and interstitial institutional change of international institutions. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1062 BAUDRY, Pierre —
Has Germany adopted a mercantile economic policy? And to what extent is such a strategy even possible in the age of globalization? In this article, I shall argue that German economic policy is in fact based on a new form of mercantilism that I propose calling neo-mercantilism, and which uses new instruments that diverge from those of traditional mercantilism. The German strategy consists not in introducing customs barriers or devaluating its currency, but rather in lowering real wages and social security expenses to reduce labor costs and invest in research with a view to maintaining its technological lead. Neo-mercantilism does not reject free trade: it merely adapts to this new landscape in order to maintain Germany’s economic position. [R]
72.1063 BEARDEN, Milton ; WORTH PARKER, Russell —
The real and present history of American warfare is one of outsourcing; of volatile marriages of convenience between the United States and its partisans, partners, and proxies. Like all relationships, they come with mixed expectations and varied intentions. [R]
72.1064 BEAZER, Quintin H. ; BLAKE, Daniel J. —
Are economic actors equally sensitive to institutional conditions? While existing research recognizes that institutions can have varying effects on actors’ interests, the implicit assumption is that actors are homogeneous in how sensitive they are to their institutional environment. We investigate this assumption in the context of foreign direct investment, arguing that actors from countries with weaker institutions will be less affected by information about host country institutional conditions — both good and bad. We test this argument using survey data from a diverse group of managers-in-training at an international business school. We find that when asked to evaluate a potential foreign investment location, respondents from developing countries are significantly less sensitive to information about the host country’s courts than their counterparts from developed economies. In contrast, we find that economic actors from both developed and developing countries respond similarly to information about the stability of economic policies. [R, abr.]
72.1065 BEESON, Mark ; CHUBB, Andrew —
Despite systemic internal and external differences, Australia and China have shown striking similarities in their pursuit of disputed maritime resource and jurisdictional claims. This high-stakes area of international politics is governed by a codified, globally accepted international legal regime (the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea), making it an important case for examining the relationship between states’ foreign policies and the ‘rules-based international order’. In the South China Sea, Beijing is haunted by the legacy of its strong geopolitically driven support for an expansive law of the sea regime in the 1970s. Strategic considerations also drove Australia’s belated embrace of international legal processes in the Timor Sea in 2016. Australia’s shift was enabled by pro-Timor domestic public opinion and a confluence of geographic and commercial circumstances not present in the South China Sea. [R, abr.]
72.1066 BEHERA, Navnita Chadha —
Although globalization processes have brought the world closer through the exchange of knowledge, ideas and practices, advances in knowledge dissemination have not been mirrored by expansion in sites and modes of knowledge production. This article probes this disjuncture and asks how deglobalization might chart different pathways by delving into the intellectual history of the making of International Relations (IR). Focusing its gaze on the structuring principles of knowledge creation and modes of knowing rather than specific issues and problematiques of IR, it analyses the historical impact of western Enlightenment thinking through centuries-long imperialism, which continues to limit the agency of many states in the re-making of their life-worlds. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1067 BHATTARAI, Gaurav ; KHAN, Raja Nazakat Ali —
This paper claims that although Nepal-China relation, at present, is more government to government, Nepal-China ties are not free from the influence of the people-to-people (P2P) relations. The paper argues whether P2P relations have helped to strengthen the diplomatic, political and economic relations between Nepal and China, or not. In addition, the paper also discusses whether P2P relations have been enhanced by China-led Belt and Road Initiatives, as Nepal is also a member of BRI, and in addition, P2P is one of the pillars of BRI. Also, the write-up describes the significant roles that diaspora, connectivity, religion, myths and histories have played to shape the P2P relations between Nepal and China. The paper concludes by saying that P2P relation between Nepal and China is itself driven by the interest of the two states, unlike the P2P that Nepal has with India, which often influences the interests of the two states. [R]
72.1068 BIGLAISER, Glen ; LU, Kelan, Lilly —
In the FDI literature, studies show that investors prefer low-risk host states. However, the research focuses on investors from developed country democracies, such as the US, ignoring the rise of China, an authoritarian developing country that engages in public and private investment. This paper investigates Chinese state and private FDI in 127 developing countries from 2003 to 2017 to determine the effects of political risk on FDI. We find that, as with US FDI, low-risk developing countries attract more Chinese state FDI, except in the case of natural resource investment, where Chinese investors appear to disregard risk concerns. For Chinese private FDI, on the other hand, political institutions seem to play no significant role, but political affiliations matter. [R, abr.]
72.1069 BRANDS, Hal —
Walter Lippmann was right that the Cold War would expose America great evils. He was wrong to think that America could not, or should not, except them as the price of avoiding even greater ones. [R]
72.1070 BRESLIN, Shaun —
While differences remain, the gap between US and European debates over the likely impact of China’s rise on the global order has narrowed in recent years. At the same time, China’s leaders have been more confident in establishing dichotomized distinctions between their view of how the world should be ordered and how China will act as a great power on one hand, and what they depict as the West’s preferences and the typical modus operandi of Western powers on the other. The problems of disentangling transnational economic relations, different levels of followership for potential leaders, and pragmatic considerations of governance efficacy in diverse issue areas all suggest something other than fixed bloc-type alliances on either side of a bipolar divide. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1071 BULMAN, David J. —
China and the US are caught in an economic security dilemma. In response to perceived economic aggression, both countries now feel impelled to bolster domestic economic security through protectionist and retaliatory measures that the other side perceives as threatening. In game-theoretic terms, a mutually beneficial “Stag Hunt” coordination game devolved into an uncooperative “Prisoner’s Dilemma” after the global financial crisis. In the economic security dilemma that emerged under Trump and Xi, both sides unsuccessfully attempted to coerce opponent behavior, further harming both economies. Using a game framework — as opposed to a structural or leadership-based account — helps demonstrate that China’s recent reform reversal and revisionist approaches to the international economic order were not unavoidable parts of a long-term strategy, but rather developed partially as a response to perceived US aggressions. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1072 BUSBY, Joshua W. —
The COVID-19 outbreak is the most serious test of the international system since the 2008 global financial crisis. Rather than cooperate to contain and respond to a common threat, the world’s leading powers — the United States and China — have increasingly blamed each other through wildly speculative theories about the origins of the virus. The World Health Organization sought to coordinate a global response, but it has been hamstrung and has come under attack. Given past cooperation between major powers to mobilize and eradicate smallpox and previous US leadership to fight HIV/AIDS and the 2014 West African Ebola crisis, the limited cooperation and lack of leadership are puzzling. What explains the anemic global response to date? This article draws from structural international relations theory to suggest a partial but somewhat dissatisfying answer. International organizations are inherently weak and now face opposition by major powers. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.204]
72.1073 BUSCANEANU, Sergiu —
The article imports insights from prospect theory into the study of integration choices of ruling elites from Eastern Partnership countries. It introduces the notion of multi-attribute reference points and provides an example of identifying their coordinates, against which ruling elites from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are expected to consider distinct integration choices: the EU or Eurasian Economic Union. The research finds that ruling elites from Eastern Partnership countries with the lowest levels of affluence, with medium to high intensity conflicts with Russia and with lower, but still non-trivial costs of domestic transformation have tended to be risk-seeking and opted for the EU as an integration choice. [R, abr.]
72.1074 BYUN See-Won —
This study assesses the political effects of China-centered interdependence based on the China-South Korea case since 1992. Although trade may inhibit conflict in line with liberal expectations, its coercive potential limits its pacifying effects. When disputes arise, asymmetric interdependence generates strategic leverage and vulnerability, and amplifies the identity dimensions of conflict that shape societal preferences. China’s combination of economic pressure and nationalist discourse induces accommodation primarily through coercion. By blending stateled and society-led retaliation, economic and accountability costs are minimized. China–South Korea political interactions have increased in quantity but not quality. The Asian case underscores qualitative changes in political relations (rather than just instances of conflict), the material and nonmaterial repercussions of asymmetric trade, and the regional security implications of China-led interdependence. [R, abr.]
72.1075 CAO Yongrong ; WU Hsin-Che ; HUANG Min-Hua —
In recent years, the economic development of China and India and their border confrontations have intensified bilateral strategic competition. This study used the State of Democracy in South Asia survey to identify dual mindsets of competition and contingency that drive how Indians perceive China’s influence in Asia. These two mindsets are based on a cognitive schema characterized by a political predisposition against China. However, this negative orientation is moderated as more information is acquired regarding the impact of China on India. The competition mindset does not always manifest itself, and is only cognitively activated when a change is perceived in India’s power status. On the other hand, the contingent principle appears whenever competition seems to have abated, or disadvantage seems unavoidable. [R, abr.]
72.1076 CASTRO, Paula ; KAMMERER, Marlene —
Differential treatment is a key norm in multilateral environmental agreements. Its main objective is to increase compliance and reduce the freerider problem by apportioning the costs and benefits of implementation more equitably across the parties in an agreement. The question of how to differentiate those burdens is inextricably linked to national interests, and while in some instances differential treatment is well designed and facilitates cooperation, in other cases a rigid divide — or cleavage — leads to a stalemate and constant conflict. This article studies the consequences of differential treatment as institutionalized under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Previous research has shown that the separation of UNFCCC parties into two opposing groups has deepened the polarization in the negotiations. We identify two causal mechanisms that may have driven this polarization, namely socialization through material incentives and the formation of group identity. [R, abr.]
72.1077 CHAN, Steve —
Current discourse on International Relations conflates international order and the interstate distribution of power. Many studies fail to clarify the concept of international order or to provide systematic empirical analysis that compares states’ conduct in relation to this order. The prevailing tendency relies instead on rhetorical assertion or definitional fiat to attribute revisionist and status-quo motivations to different countries. For example, power-transition theory claims that rising states are typically revisionist, whereas established states are committed to the status quo. This article presents a contrarian view, arguing that the dominant or established state can be a revisionist. This state is not forever committed to those rules and institutions of international order that it has played a decisive role in fostering. Conversely, a rising state is not inevitably bent on challenging the order that has enabled its ascendance. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1078 CHEN Muyang —
How is the rise of China affecting international governance? This paper examines the domain of infrastructure finance by focusing on China’s two policy banks, which are the main creditors of China’s overseas infrastructure projects. While the incumbent international credit regimes led by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) distinguish development-oriented aid from commercially oriented export credits, emerging late-developed economies blur this dichotomy by largely funding development projects with state-backed export credits. The way China alters the OECD’s credit governance, this paper argues, demonstrates both the generality of late development and the peculiarity of “Chinese” development. Rather than directly subsidizing firms’ international business with the state’s fiscal revenue, policy banks financialized host country’s state-owned and state-coordinated assets using various market instruments. [R, abr.]
72.1079 CHENG Huimin, et al. —
Transnational advocacy networks (TANs) are the most common example of networks in international relations. Despite their familiarity, we know little about how advocacy networks of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are structured. Drawing on the cross-disciplinary concepts of emergent communities and distinct brokerage roles, we argue that the network may reinforce power disparities and inequalities at the very same time that it provides social power. TANs are similar to emergent communities of practice, with some organizations acting as various types of brokers within and between communities. Preexisting resources are more likely to lead global North organizations to occupy brokerage roles that provide additional agenda-setting and resource-allocating power. [R, abr.]
72.1080 CHIN, Gregory T. —
I examine the emerging crisis in major institutions of global governance, and the ways that US-China relations play crucially in the crisis and its potential resolution. The mix of competition and cooperation in the US-China relationship during the Obama presidency resulted in progress as well as stalemate in global governance, while the subsequent degeneration of relations during the Trump presidency has brought about crisis situations in major international organizations, a critical change-point in global governance. But the change is ambiguous; it can result either in organizational collapse or the pursuit of a fundamentally transformative outcome. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1081 CHUNG Jae Ho —
This analysis observes that in 2020 China is a global power with global ambitions and a near-global presence. Terms such as “G2,” “global stakeholder,” “strategic competitor,” and “hegemonic candidate” no longer ring hollow as they did ten years ago. However, it is unclear whether China’s challenge to the US will be sustainable in the medium to long run. The essay considers five hurdles in Beijing’s path to a “responsible great power”— assuming that China does hope to be one. Certainly, the world does not wish to see the emergence of an irresponsible China. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1082 COLBY, Elbridge —
America should seek to expand its coalition of allies in partners — but based on a country’s ability and will to help address interests it shares with America, not on its history with Washington or the nature of the country’s political regime. [R]
72.1083 COLEMAN, Katharina P. ; JOB, Brian L. —
UN peacekeeping became a flagship activity of the liberal international order (LIO) in the post-Cold War era, characterized by globalization, liberal norms and western leadership. Western states’ diminished support for LIO UN peacekeeping has left it increasingly open to challenge, but significant changes are only likely if a strong group of states coalesces around an alternative model of UN peacekeeping. This article highlights African actors and China as well positioned to play pivotal roles in such a coalition. African states, who host the preponderance of UN missions and furnish almost half of the UN’s uniformed peacekeepers, support globalized UN peacekeeping, show relatively weak support for the most liberal peacebuilding principles and assert the need for Africanled solutions to continental crises. China’s influence reflects its P5 status, financial and personnel contributions to UN peacekeeping and engagement with regional actors, notably in Africa. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1084 CONEVSKA, Aleksandra —
Environmental shocks in the form of natural disasters are well known for their impact on domestic economies. Less known, however, is their impact on the global economy. The scant existing literature suggests that macro-economic impacts manifest in observed empirical decreases in international trade. The literature, however, does not examine whether the impact of natural disasters on trade varies for trading partners with differing levels of market integration. This paper examines if preferential liberalization serves to protect or buffer against the negative economic consequences of natural disasters. I show that deep preferential liberalization can not only protect countries against the negative macroeconomic impact of natural disasters but can actually allow countries to increase exports during natural disaster events that otherwise induce trade decline. [R, abr.]
72.1085 CONNOLLY, Catherine —
This article attempts to demonstrate the connections between US executive war powers, US interpretations of the international law on the use of force, and the history of US war-making and war-fighting, both at home and abroad. It begins by discussing the status of presidential war powers in the US domestic context, before examining the centrality of national security in US political life. In arguing that did imperial character of US international legal interpretation in defense policy changes very little between Democratic and Republican administrations, regardless of the ‘legality’ of relevant actions subject to the international law of the use of force, this paper illustrates that US ‘exceptionalism’ is situated not in a sphere outside the international rule of law, but rather in an exceptional space within an international legal system that privileges the powerful. [R]
72.1086 CRAWFORD, Beverly Kay —
The Arctic is on fire. Warmed by the world’s soaring greenhouse gases, its ice cap is melting, and it is heating twice as fast as the rest of the planet, deepening the earth’s climate crisis. As its ice thaws, buried resources, trade routes, and new tourist opportunities are suddenly accessible. The borders of the earth’s two largest nuclear rivals, the US and Russia are less than 3 miles apart in the Arctic region and their hostility is growing. Seeking new trade routes and investment opportunities and rapidly rising above its rank as the earth’s third most powerful country, China, has declared itself a ‘near Arctic state’ and is exercising a voice in Arctic affairs. Russia and Arctic NATO members have expanded their military presence in the far North. Despite potential tensions and rapidly melting ice, there is no effective overarching governing regime in the region that can mitigate the climate crisis or manage conflicts were they to arise. Nonetheless, the Arctic remains free of interstate violence. The explanation for the absence of violent conflict cannot be found in traditional International Relations (IR) Theories. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1175]
72.1087 CRESPO NAVARRO, E. —
On 11 December 2019, the Contentious-Administrative Chamber of the National Court, Section 4, finally issued a judgment on the Couso case. The judgment states the financial liability of the general state administration and orders it to pay compensation for the omission in the exercise of diplomatic protection to which the Spanish state would be obliged on behalf of its nationals. It is a relevant judgment due to its effects that, undoubtedly, transcend the specific case and may have consequences on the general interest. This article represents a critical analysis of the confusing argumentation of the judgment from both an international law and a Spanish domestic law perspective of the diplomatic protection’s doctrine. [R]
72.1088 CRUZ DE CASTRO, Renato —
Focusing on the Philippines’ changing foreign policy agendas on the South China Sea dispute, this article examines the limitations of the ASEAN intergovernmental approach in addressing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. It contends that former President Benigno Aquino III tried to harness this regional organisation in his balancing policy vis-àvis China’s maritime expansion in the South China Sea. On the contrary, President Rodrigo Duterte promoted his appeasement policy on China when he became the ASEAN’s chairperson in 2017, and pushed for the elusive passage of the ASEAN–China Code of Conduct in 2019. The article scrutinises the implications of this shift in the Philippines’ foreign policy for the ASEAN, and raises the need for this regional organisation to rethink its intergovernmental approach to the security challenges posed by the changing geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific region. [R]
72.1089 CVETICANIN, Neven ; MANDIC, Marko —
The authors offer an overview and analysis of the rise and fall of the liberal international order that emerged after the end of the Cold War and along with the rising power of the US. The foreign policy agenda of the post-Cold War sole superpower was guided by the idea of creating a global order based on the ideology of liberalism, which incorporates theories of liberal peace, democratic peace and neoliberal institutionalism. The establishment of a liberal order has been accompanied by numerous political, social, economic and security crises. The current era is characterized by the rise of the relative power of global actors, primarily China and Russia, as the main challengers to the world domination of the US, geopolitical revisionism and ideological struggle around the world. [R, abr.]
72.1090 DEKA, Bhaskar Jyoti —
This paper argues that the incipient tensions over the Brahmaputra between India and China has become a considerable threat and cause for concern to the downstream dwellers of India’s North East Region (NER), especially Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. It enlarges the term ‘Brahma-hypothesis’ and considers Chinese ‘hydro-hegemony’ over the Brahmaputra as a ‘national security’ threat to India. It also argues that apart from having the occasional Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China, India should seek to develop with China and other countries a multilateral diplomatic agreement regarding the management of the Brahmaputra River to secure India’s vital interests at national and regional levels. This is also necessary to minimize the sense of insecurity continuously growing in the minds of the people of the NER. [R]
72.1091 DEMESSIE, Menna-Weiwot A. ; HENDERSON, Errol A. —
Intra-racial diversity among black Americans provides unique opportunities for students of congressional representation. Studies of representation often conflate slavery descendant African-Americans who identify mainly based on race, and African immigrants who identify based on ethnicity as well as race, so it’s important to determine to what extent legislators substantively represent both. Drawing on conceptions of racial consciousness, linked fate, and the diversity infrastructure thesis, we focus on the legislative activity of individual legislators, race-based caucuses (e.g., the Congressional Black Caucus) and ethnic/nationalitybased ones (e.g., the Ethiopian Caucus) to determine their substantive representation of black Americans regarding US-Africa foreign policy issues. [R, abr.]
72.1092 DENTICE, Giuseppe ; DONELLI, Federico —
In 2015, the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi launched a new Italian agenda for Africa. Through its new pro-active approach, Italy has engaged with the African countries through a dynamic and multi-layered partnership aimed at fostering peace, stability, economic growth and human development on the continent. Within this framework, Italy intended to go beyond the traditional ‘donor-beneficiary’ relationship to build a new partnership model centered around the concept of sharing. The article argues that the need to preserve or at least reinforce its international status as a middle-ranking power has been one of the factors that led Italy to relaunch its involvement in Africa. Nevertheless, statements of intent aside, Italian foreign policy is lagging behind other extra-regional players operating on the continent. [R, abr.]
72.1093 DOBELL, Graeme —
In its 50 years, Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs (and later Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade) has become a great department of state. Foreign is an important conglomerate, doing diplomacy, trade, aid, and spying. In the Canberra system, though, Foreign has an ‘anaemia’ problem caused by chronic underfunding. Measured as a proportion of the Commonwealth budget, spending on diplomacy is halving in only three decades. Anaemia is the effect; the causes are a formidable set of forces pressing against the department over those 50 years: the evolution and empowerment of Australia’s presidential prime minister; the birth of ministerial minders; public service managerialism ; Canberra’s national security system — and mindset — in the 21st c.; globalisation and the digital era: every government department has its own bit of foreign policy. [R, abr.]
72.1094 DOWLING, Melissa-Ellen —
In today’s virtually interconnected world, it is now cheaper, faster and less risky for malign foreign entities to conduct non-kinetic subversion of adversaries. This commentary aims to promote debate about whether digitisation has reshaped foreign interference or whether changes to the conduct of covert subversion operations simply mask what at its core is an unchanged and perennial fixture of geopolitics. It calls into question the concept of foreign interference in a world wherein the boundaries of foreign and domestic are beginning to dissolve in the digital theatre of battle. I identify several core ways in which digitisation has revolutionised tactics of interference and argue that this differentiates today’s foreign interference from analogue-era espionage. I also explore how digitisation has expanded the range of potential threats and targets. [R, abr.]
72.1095 ELBE, Stefan —
Global health emergencies — like COVID-19 — pose major and recurring threats in the 21st century. Now societies can be better protected against such harrowing outbreaks by analysing the detailed genetic sequence data of new pathogens. Why, then, is this valuable epistemic resource frequently withheld by stakeholders — hamstringing the international response and potentially putting lives at risk? This article initiates the social scientific study of bioinformational diplomacy, that is, the emerging field of tensions, sensitivities, practices and enabling instruments surrounding the timely international exchange of bioinformation about global health emergencies. The article genealogically locates this nascent field at the intersection of molecularised life, informationalised biology and securitised health. It investigates the deeper political, economic and scientific problematisations that are engendering this burgeoning field. [R, abr.]
72.1096 EWERS-PETERS, Nele Marianne —
Since its accession to the EU, the UK has played an important role in the design and development of the EU’s foreign, security and defence policy. While it is among the founding members of NATO, it is also one of the main contributors to European security and played an active part in developing the relationship between both organisations. With the UK’s decision to leave the EU, questions concerning the implications of Brexit on EU–NATO cooperation arise. As the transatlantic bridge between the two organisations, Britain also faces an uncertain position within the European security architecture. It therefore needs to redefine its relations with the EU and its own position among other member states. This article develops three possible scenarios that may occur for the EU-NATO relationship depending on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. [R, abr.]
72.1097 FENG Zhu —
This article analyzes the change in policy discourse of the Trump administration and its destructive effects on US-China relations. It begins with a retrospective look at the China policies of two prior US administrations, those of President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama, in order to show just how significant the shift is. Following the review are analyses of the new policy discourse on China and how China has responded to it, especially in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. The last section of this article discusses a popular theme in recent academic circles: Is a new Cold War inevitable? [R] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1098 FIKER, Sabine ; KLUGE, Janis ; SAHM, Astrid —
The key to solving the political crisis in Belarus lies in Moscow. The Kremlin is not only pursuing geopolitical interests, but also fears that there may be fall-out from the Belarusian protests that will affect the domestic situation in Russia. For this reason, the Russian government is supporting Aliaksandr Lukashenka, the Belarusian head of state of many years, in his attempt to hold on to power. In return, Lukashenka is performing a U-turn with regard to integration policy and is abandoning his “see-saw policy” between the EU and Russia. If he succeeds in forming common supranational institutions, Vladimir Putin would finally have achieved the aim of his Belarus policy after two decades. However, it remains unclear whether his tactics will actually pay off. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1328]
72.1099 GARCIA, —
The Global Commons — the high seas and the seabed, Antarctica, the atmosphere (including the ozone layer and the climate system), and outer space — have a distinctive status in international relations because these domains play a vital role in ensuring humankind’s survival, the subsistence of the planet, and the intergenerational custodianship of the human heritage. I call global commons law an ‘uncommon’ realm within international law that is composed of principles and practices that dovetail with treaties aimed at protecting humankind. These laws have an atypical purpose and are characterized by a commonality of interests based on the view that safeguarding these domains is in the interests of developing and developed countries alike, with scientists, activists, and international institutions jointly having a convening power to maintain peace. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1175]
72.1100 GAUTIER, Louis —
A quelques mois de l’élection américaine, le bilan de la politique étrangère de Trump est accablant, alors que le monde est plongé dans une déstabilisation avec la pandémie de Covid-19. L’absence de leadership américain oblige les Européens à se ressaisir, mais en auront-ils la volonté, face à une Chine de plus en plus opaque? [R] [Premier d’une série d’articles sur “La puissance américaine: assise et évolutions stratégiques (American power: foundation and strategic developments)”. Cf. Abstr. 72.1058, 1104, 1130]
72.1101 GEORGE, Ann Mary —
China’s declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over parts of the East China Sea has been discursively constructed as a threat to regional security by Indian commentators. The Indian government meanwhile has not released an official assessment of the Chinese ADIZ. Unofficial commentators extrapolate the threat into a possible Chinese ADIZ over the disputed border with India. This article examines how the Indian security community interprets and discursively constructs the ADIZ threat. Threat, identity and recommendations for response are constructed, drawing from national identity’s contested concepts and ideational elements present within the Sino-Indian security equation. [R]
72.1102 GIOE, David V. —
America’s strategic distraction has favored addressing foreign threats and those domestically with a foreign aspect, leaving a wide space for domestic extremism to go unchecked. [R]
72.1103 GLENCROSS, Andrew —
This article applies insights from comparative federalism to analyse different models for managing future EU-UK relations. The argument is that the stability of the EU-UK relationship before as well as after Brexit is best understood by examining the presence of federal safeguards. Drawing on Kelemen, four types of safeguards are identified as the means for balancing centrifugal and centripetal forces. During the UK’s EU membership, the strong glue provided by structural and judicial safeguards was undone by the weakness of partisan and socio-cultural ones. However, each post-Brexit scenario is characterised by weaker structural and judicial safeguards. The most stable outcome is an indeterminate Brexit that limits the incentive to politicise sovereignty and identity concerns by ending free movement of people and reducing the saliency of EU rules. [R, abr.]
72.1104 GNESOTTO, Nicole —
La pandémie [de Covid-19] a révélé la rupture entre les Etats-Unis de Trump et l’Europe. Celle-ci doit prendre conscience que Washington n’accorde plus d’importance à la relation transatlantique. D’où le besoin impératif des Européens d’assumer leurs responsabilités en agissant collectivement sans attendre tout de l’extérieur. [R] [Cf. Abstr. 72.1100]
72.1105 GOVELLA, Kristi —
It is often predicted that rising powers such as China will seek to reshape the international order as they gain influence. Drawing on comparative analysis of the maritime and cyber domains, this article argues that China poses a challenge to the global commons because its actions reflect a pragmatic focus on national interest that that disrupts more collaborative conceptions of their governance. However, instead of directly rejecting existing regimes, China has pursued a mixed strategy of complying when these regimes confer benefits and employing contestation or subversion when they conflict with its strategic aims. In particular, China has used contestation and subversion to push for the enclosure of the maritime and cyber domains, extending ideas of sovereignty and territoriality to them to varying extents. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1175]
72.1106 GRIMMEL, Andreas ; ESZTERHAI, Viktor —
This article examines how states may be inclined to adapt to the policy goals of powerful economic partner states in acts of ‘anticipatory conformity’ or by adjusting their ‘common’ policy goals. It builds on two classical theoretical bases — the concept of economic statecraft and Hirschmanesque effects — to explore how economic power may be translated into far-reaching effects on other states’ behaviour without a clear goal or objective being proclaimed or even set by the economically powerful state. Our empirical findings suggest that the European Union still has an unparalleled influence on member states, and China’s growing economic presence in Europe alone — especially in the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative — is insufficient to influence member states’ politics. [R]
72.1107 GRINBERG, Mariya —
Why do states trade with their enemies during war? States make deliberate choices when setting their wartime commercial policies, and tailoring policies to match the type of war the states are expecting to fight. Specifically, states seek to balance two goals: maximizing revenue from continued trade during the war and minimizing the ability of the opponent to benefit militarily from trade. As a result, states trade with the enemy in (1) products that their opponents take a long time to convert into military capability, and (2) products that are essential to the domestic economy. An analysis of British wartime commercial policy in World War I finds that a product’s conversion time into military capabilities determines if and when that product will be prohibited from trade during the war. [R, abr.]
72.1108 GRIZOLD, Anton ; JAKLIČ, Andreja —
Covid-19 pandemic came during the globalization backlash and accelerated two important millennial mega-trends: the changing nature of production and innovation, and the changing global world order and trading system. Although stronger multilateralism was seen as a key approach to tackling the tough global challenges before the global crisis, the national responses at the start of Covid-19 have crowded out multilateral and even regional initiatives and revitalised the role of the state. A growing gap between national, regional and multilateral responses to Covid-19 challenges the development of global governance and regional integration, as well as the future of the EU and its capacities for international economic and political cooperation. All the dimensions of the complex multifaceted systemic crisis exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic are, however, still to be established. [R, abr.]
72.1109 GÜRCAN, Efe Can —
This article sheds light on the changing character of the Transcaucasian geopolitical economy based on the question of how the multipolarization of world politics has shaped the course of regional conflicts and the balance of forces in the region. In this framework, the article proposes transcending static labels such as Georgia/Azerbaijan as a “Western post,” Iran and Azerbaijan as “arch enemies,” and Armenia as a “traditional Russian ally” by reference to recent developments such as the peaceful rise of China in the region, Putin’s Eurasianist geostrategic leanings, and the reorientation of Turkey’s foreign policy since 2016. Georgian and Armenian color revolution dynamics are likely to be suppressed thanks to the recent foreign policy shift of Turkey as a strategic ally of Georgia, Georgia’s inclusion in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the Russo-Turkish rapprochement. [R, abr.]
72.1110 GURNOV, Alexander —
Instead of rallying governments and people to action and mobilizing resources to jointly fight a mortal danger, fear of the pandemic has literally begun to tear the Union apart from the inside. [R]
72.1111 GURTOV, Mel —
Human rights has been a contentious issue in US-China relations from their very beginning. In the early years the issue was one-way, with Washington constantly criticizing political, legal, and social inequities in Mao’s China. China has fought back, pointing to deficiencies in the US system while proceeding in recent years to implement a large-scale program of detention and incarceration targeting Muslim minorities in Xinjiang. Neither the US nor any other country or international organization can compel adherence to human rights norms in China. But President Biden aligns with Black Lives Matter, respects the rule of law, refuses to endorse dictators, and urges the US Senate to approve and ratify all the UN conventions on human rights, he might be more persuasive in urging Beijing to change its direction on human rights. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1112 GVOSDEV, Nikolas K. ; TAKEYH, Ray —
Predictions that Russia or China would take the lead in the fight against the pandemic have not panned out. Instead, countries around the world are clamoring for forging new trade, technological, and health alliances with the United States. [R]
72.1113 HAHM Sung Deuk ; SONG Sooho —
Ever since the concept of soft power was introduced, there has been debate about what it is and how it works. We join the debate by studying how the success of Korean cultural products in Taiwan has improved the relationship between South Korea and Taiwan. The two countries normalized their relationship in 1948 and maintained cooperation until the severance of formal ties in 1992 because of South Korea’s rapprochement with China. Beginning in early 2000, however, South Korea’s cultural products have enjoyed great success in Taiwan. Since that time, the relationship between the two countries has significantly improved, including trade and tourism expansion, increased Taiwanese direct investment in South Korea, and policy changes by Taiwan’s government. These changes provide empirical evidence of soft power. [R]
72.1114 HALLENBERG, Jan —
Donald Trump has in many respects been a very unusual president of the United States in terms of his foreign policy. He has broken traditions both when it comes to Republican traditions more specifically, and also more generally for US presidents. One of his steps in breaking with Republican foreign policy has been his negative attitude towards free trade. He has also been more doubtful about the worth of US alliances than any of his predecessors after the Second World War, whether Democrat or Republican. His attitudes towards international organizations and international treaties have also been more negative than in the case of any other US President after 1945. In general, the United States has been a less active actor in international affairs under D. Trump than under any of his recent predecessors, thus breaking with historical tradition after 1945. [R]
72.1115 HARDEN, John P. —
How do leaders matter? What do leaders want? Grandiose narcissism provides a pathway to understanding how personality can impact a leader’s preference formation and foreign policy behavior. More narcissistic leaders will focus their efforts on maintaining their inflated selfimage by selecting how they will fight on the world stage and who they will fight against. While most leaders will divert attention to easier won battles, more narcissistic leaders will prefer to fight against high-status states by themselves. This article introduces a new measure of US’ presidential narcissism, and finds support for the argument that more narcissistic US presidents prefer unilaterally initiating Great Power disputes using data from 1897–2008. A brief review of Theodore Roosevelt’s handling of the Venezuela Crisis of 1902-1903 is used as a plausibility probe of the theory’s causal mechanisms. [R]
72.1116 HAUKKALA, Hiski —
Is Europe headed towards nonpolarity? What would that entail for the future stability and security of the continent? Taking its cue from IR debates about the effects of polarity on international order, the article develops conceptual tools and an analytical narrative concerning Europe during the post-Cold War era. It refines the concept of a Great Power by suggesting the notion of ‘ordering agents’ and ponders whether Europe is in danger of drifting towards a period of nonpolarity with no power being able to shoulder the responsibility of ordering and providing good stewardship over Europe. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1129]
72.1117 HAYES, Jarrod ; WEBER, Katja —
Increased nationalism, greater protectionism and a gradual move away from a rules-based international order by some members of the international community do not bode well for vulnerable populations around the globe. Human security is threatened by a host of non-traditional security challenges catalysed by the growth of physical technologies and require multifaceted responses from a variety of actors. Many of those actors look to transnational networks built on globalized liberal order’s social norms — what we call social technologies — for protection. The dwindling interconnectedness of deglobalization is likely to further empower corrupt governments at the expense of vulnerable citizens. This results from a decreased willingness by states and international institutions to defend human security. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1118 HEDGES, Matthew —
This article analyses the UAE’s security-led foreign policy engagement within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). I have interpreted the UAE’s foreign policy strategy as one that employs Joel Migdal’s State in Society model, whereby informal networks and communities are primarily utilized for the implementation of foreign policy engagement. In this paper I discuss the justification for this hypothesis, and then illustrate my argument through case studies of the UAE’s engagement with Libya, Yemen, and Somalia. [R]
72.1119 HINZ, Kristina ; HERZ, Monica ; SIMAN, Maira —
This article discusses how the institutionalization of international mediation practices and its growing relevance since the end of the Cold War coincided with the formation of an epistemic community that shares common practices for a third party. This community focuses on core concepts that structure mediation practices such as efficiency, rationality, and the management of time and information. The article analyzes the consolidation of this community through the circulation of knowledge among scholars and practitioners. In particular, it highlights the place of the concept of ripeness, developed by Ira William Zartman, in stabilizing a division between a moment of conflict and a moment of nonconflict; and it discusses the place of the UN system in its dissemination among mediation practitioners. [R, abr.]
72.1120 IAKHNIS, Evgeniia ; JAMES, Patrick —
Crisis escalation to war is a subject of longstanding interest. Case studies, formal models and statistical analysis offer compelling explanations for why some crises escalate to war while others do not. Much less can be said in answer to the following question: where do crises come from in the first place? In this paper, we first introduce the concept of a near crisis following the approach taken over the course of more than four decades by the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. A near crisis is just below a crisis as defined by ICB with regard to intensity, as it lacks one essential condition for a crisis — higher likelihood of military hostilities. Second, we present a newly developed dataset that contains information on 86 cases in which actors perceived a threat to one or more basic values, along with an awareness of finite time for response to the value threat. We also present simple statistical models comparing (a) near crisis to crisis and (b) crisis to war that show that analyses based on the Near Crisis dataset will contribute to advancement of knowledge. [R]
72.1121 JIN, Mun Jeong —
This research examines the relationship between economic sanctions and income inequality of sanctioned states. Economic sanctions have a discernible effect on target income inequality. I argue that such an effect significantly varies across sanctions instruments and economic conditions of sanctioned countries. Data analysis for 152 countries from 1974 to 2011 shows that import sanctions increase inequality of laborabundant targets, but such an effect disappears in labor-scarce targets, whereas the findings provide no reliable evidence for the effect of export sanctions. The results also suggest that foreign aid sanctions reduce the inequality of targets that are significantly dependent on foreign assistance. [R]
72.1122 JOANA, Jean —
La guerre d’Afghanistan (2001-2012) a été un des conflits les plus exigeants auxquels les forces armées françaises ont été confrontées depuis la fin de l’affrontement Est-Ouest. Pour adapter leurs équipements aux spécificités de ce conflit, les forces armées françaises ont notamment été conduites à recourir à une procédure d’acquisition originale à partir de 2004, qualifiée “d’achats en urgence opérationnelle”. Le propos de cet article est d’apprécier le changement que le recours à cette procédure inédite a provoqué dans la politique d’armement française. Il montre que le conflit afghan n’a certes pas provoqué un changement radical et brusque de la politique d’armement française, mais qu’il a néanmoins favorisé l’introduction d’un certain nombre de représentations et de pratiques inédites pour les acteurs en charge de sa définition, qui n’aurait certainement pas eu lieu, ou en tout cas pas au rythme et sous la forme qu’elle a eus, sans un engagement de la France dans ce conflit. [R, abr.]
72.1123 KANET, Roger E. —
Russian relations with the West have deteriorated significantly in the past two decades, in particular after the rise of Vladimir Putin. The factors leading to this shift included domestic issues such as the role of the military and security elite, as well as the reemergence of authoritarianism and growing concern in Russia for the expansion of Western influence in post-Soviet space. [R]
72.1124 KAPLAN, Robert D. —
American foreign policy elites have adopted a partial myth about containment in order to worship at the altar of grant strategy before declaring that such a sweeping approach is no longer possible. Both propositions are false, and are driving partially by nostalgia. [R]
72.1125 KAWASAKI, Tsuyoshi —
There is an emerging consensus that Canada needs a new China strategy as its conventional approach of engagement proved to be ineffective vis-à-vis Beijing’s coercive diplomacy. But what should be the central concept of such a strategy, something equivalent to engagement in the old strategy? In answering this question, the present article submits the realist concept of hedging and demonstrates that confrontation, another realist concept, is as non-viable as the liberal concept of engagement. While occupying a mid-point between these two alternatives, hedging has its own distinct features, standing on the principles of strategic literacy, soft balancing, economic pragmatism, and prudent statecraft. To develop its arguments, the article employs the concept-building and measurement approaches developed by Goertz, Gerring, and Collier, et al., respectively. [R, abr.]
72.1126 KELKITLI, Fatma Asli —
Though the idea was shelved after unsuccessful 2018 negotiations, a territorial exchange could be the most promising disposition available. [R]
72.1127 KIM Youngwan ; CONNOLLY, Daniel —
India is the recipient of substantial aid flows but also a nuclear-armed power and an emerging donor. Why have developed countries provided aid to one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world? Answering this question requires understanding the underlying determinants of these aid flows. Using data from 1960 to 2015, the domestic conditions of India and the external conditions of donors are empirically explored with time-series analysis and panel-data analysis. We find that during the Cold War India received more foreign aid from donors with a larger volume of trade and arms transfers, but from 2000 to 2015 the effect of arms transfers declined while countries with high trade volumes continued to give more aid. [R, abr.]
72.1128 KORNPROBST, Markus ; PAUL, T. V. —
For decades, globalization and the liberal international order evolved side by side. Recently, however, deglobalizing forces have been on the rise and the liberal international order has come to be increasingly beleaguered. The special issue ‘Deglobalization? The future of the liberal international order’ examines the interconnectedness of globalization and deglobalization processes on the one hand and the trajectory of the liberal international order on the other. This introduction provides a conceptual frame for the articles to follow. It discusses globalization and deglobalization processes, compares how they have been intertwined with the liberal international order in the past and presently, and explores how these differences are likely to affect the future of world politics. The special issue makes three important contributions. [R, abr.] [First article of a thematic issue on “Deglobalization? The future of the liberal international order”. See also Abstr. 72.37, 625, 1019, 1043, 1059, 1061, 1066, 1077, 1083, 1117, 1144, 1153, 1155, 1163, 1167, 1176]
72.1129 KOROSTELEVA, Elena ; PAIKIN, Zachary —
This article introduces the special issue by going beyond the traditional debates about geopolitics and great power rivalry. Instead, it examines the emergent and highly complex world of Central Eurasia, in its transformative effort to reorder itself in response to both global and local change. In particular, the paper (and the volume) focuses on two interrelated themes: one of a changing Russia, that is anxiously trying to adapt to the uncertain dynamics within and beyond the wider Eurasian space; and the other — of an emerging complexity of new order-making regional (integration) initiatives that are poised to reshape the future of international and global order. The overarching intention of this paper and the volume is to advance the need to focus on ‘the local’, to gain a more holistic understanding of the present-day challenges and the kind of global response needed to stay attuned to the increasingly complex world. [R] [First article of a thematic issue on “Russia between East and West, and the future of Eurasian Order”. See also Abstr. 72.1116, 1147, 1159, 1164, 1169, 1183, 1208, 1329]
72.1130 KORTUNOV, Andreï —
Paradoxalement, Moscou s’était réjoui de l’élection de D. Trump, le Kremlin ayant une préférence pour les Républicains. Or, les relations entre Trump et Poutine n’étant pas bonnes, les relations se sont dégradés. La Russie doit dès lors rompre la logique de confrontation et modifier l’image qu’elle donne au reste du monde. [R] [Cf. Abstr. 72.1100]
72.1131 KOVACEVIC, Maja ; VUKASOVIC, Dejana —
The article examines the politics of French presidents towards European integration, with the focus on President Macron’s proposals concerning European sovereignism. The authors apply the Liberal Intergovernmentalism, which models the EU reforms as a three-stage process in which states first define preferences, then engage in interstate bargaining, and finally design common institutions. We [argue] that France has relatively stable preferences — augmenting its power through European integration, which is also translated into Macron’s politics, despite seemingly paradoxical proposals on further delegation of competences to the EU. France is refusing the status quo in the Union divided on key issues, and strongly advocate a Europe of concentric circles. The high intensity of French preferences for the EU reforms is demonstrated through the alternative coalition’s projects, such as the European Intervention Initiative or redefinition of its relations with Russia. [R, abr.]
72.1132 KRUTSKIKH, Andrey ; FILATKINA, Veronika —
Our information security policy is aimed at adverting conflicts and confrontations, making the global information space stable and secure creating guarantees at solely peaceful use of ICTs, and developing equal and pragmatic corporation. [R]
72.1133 KUIK Cheng-Chwee —
This essay offers a small state perspective on US-China rivalry in the post-COVID-19 era. After tracing the emergence of the “twin chessboards” of big power rivalry, namely, high and low politics competitions, the essay assesses the impact of these competitions on the postpandemic Asian order, with a focus on Southeast Asia. I argue that while US-China competition has been rising rapidly in high politics (that is, in the military field), the increasing importance of low politics — infrastructure and connectivity development, technology, trade, finance, public health, and other functional areas — is shaping the prospects, pace, and patterns of the onset of Cold War 2.0. The intensified US-China animosity across the twin chessboards is widening the scope of the competition, increasing the number of players, and mounting pressure on all smaller states. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1134 KUIK Cheng-Chwee, ed. —
Introduction, pp. 255-276 by the editors. Articles by Aileen S. P. BAVIERA and Aries A. ARUGAY, “The Philippines’ shifting engagement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative: the politics of Duterte’s legitimation”, pp. 277-300; Lee JONES and Khin MA MA MYO, “Explaining Myanmar’s response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative: from disengagement to embrace”, pp. 301-324; Ardhitya Eduard YEREMIA, “Explaining Indonesia’s constrained engagement with the Belt and Road Initiative: balancing developmentalism against nationalism and Islamism”, pp. 325-347; Pongkwan SAWASDIPAKDI, “Thailand’s engagement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative: strong will, slow implementation”, pp. 349-374; Vannarith CHHEANG, “Cambodia’s embrace of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: managing asymmetries, maximizing authority”, pp. 375-396; Ithrana LAWRENCE, “Brunei’s response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative: embracing asymmetry, enhancing authority”, pp. 397-420; Cheng-CHWEE KUIK, “Malaysia’s Fluctuating engagement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative: leveraging asymmetry, legitimizing authority”, pp. 421-444.
72.1135 KUTZ, William —
Contributing to the growing interest in multiperspectival border studies, this article advocates for a re-centring of subaltern geopolitics in the debate. Focusing empirically on Morocco’s diplomatic dispute with the EU over the application of trade agreements to the Western Sahara (2015-2019), the analysis considers the geopolitical bordering of the controversy through the concepts of dependency and engagement to explain how the disputed territory both structured Morocco’s disadvantageous relationship to the EU, while also giving rise to material and symbolic possibilities for the state leadership to subvert these geopolitical asymmetries in the late 2010s. The events are theorised through the combined lenses of critical border studies, subaltern geopolitics, and the politics of space to bring two complementary insights to the fore. [R, abr.]
72.1136 LAMPTON, David M. —
This contribution argues that, without an ethical operational code, scholars’, policymakers’, businesspersons’, and citizens’ policy positions simply become expedient reactions to perceived problems, opportunities, and interests. Without ethical footing, policies as a whole will lack coherence, staying power, and persuasive force. Key elements of an ethical operational code include: philosophical grounding and core values, concepts of social and historical development, and rules of thumb derived from an individual’s experience. Providing several examples of China-related policy issues which would benefit from the ethical operational code approach, this essay then discusses the analytic elements of an operational code. It argues that, in the context of US-China relations, individuals should develop ethical constructs characterized by patience, more carrots than sticks, and more open doors than high walls. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1137 LANG, Kai-Olaf —
Poland and Lithuania are following events in Belarus with a high level of interest. Many people are sympathetic towards the protest movement against the fraudulent election. They see the uprising against the Lukashenka autocracy as a continuation of their own fight against authoritarian Soviet rule. Poland and Lithuania are standard bearers of solidarity with the Belarusian civic movement. The governments of the two countries have opened their borders to citizens from Belarus and are asking the EU for support. If the discredited dictator is able to hold on to power, Warsaw and Vilnius will reduce relations with their neighbour to a minimum. However, there will be a dialogue with the executive in Minsk over technical issues such as transport, infrastructure and the safety of the Astravets nuclear power station. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1328]
72.1138 LE PERE, Garth L. —
Passage of the African Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA) occurs at a time of rising tensions between the US and China. Africa’s growth and development prospects depend on a functioning and stable multilateral trading system, but recourse to economic nationalism and protectionism is increasingly undermining the open global economy and, indeed, the liberal international order on which free and fair trade depends. This article examines the implications of US-China tensions for the CFTA while assessing the opportunity for closer engagement between African countries and an axis of emerging powers led by China in an enhanced Global South strategy. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1139 LEE Dong Sun ; ALEXANDROVA, Iordanka —
This article examines the key attributes of Pyongyang’s nuclear program. It argues that North Korea has likely adopted an assured retaliation strategy, threatening a nuclear second strike to deter US nuclear attacks. This strategy was chosen due to its superior feasibility and desirability: it requires only a modest cost-effective nuclear arsenal, reduces Pyongyang’s security dependence on Beijing, permits politically safe centralized control over the nuclear weapons, and is also relatively economical. This article calls into question the common views that North Korea has employed a catalytic strategy using its nuclear capabilities to induce China’s assistance, and that Pyongyang is developing an asymmetric escalation strategy or a brinkmanship strategy, which utilizes nuclear weapons primarily to counter the superior conventional forces of its adversaries. [R, abr.]
72.1140 LEVIN-BANCHIK, Luba —
Why do some international crises escalate into violence while others do not? I argue that an understanding of crisis behavior necessitates awareness of the processes preceding a crisis and propose two mechanisms that link precrisis hostility with crisis violence. The population fatigue mechanism suggests that precrisis hostility interrupts the everyday life of a population, strengthening its demand for a harsher response. If leaders behave with restraint during a crisis and after the crisis hostilities resume, leaders risk facing greater dissatisfaction from their now even more fatigued population. The baseline for resolve mechanism suggests that if states are actively hostile before a crisis, they must maintain hostility during a crisis to credibly demonstrate resolve. [R, abr.]
72.1141 LIM, Darren J. ; ATTRILL, Nathan —
Debate within Australia regarding the bilateral relationship with China is complex, contentious and often lacks clarity. Informed by basic IR theory, we identify two dividing lines within this debate. First, whether understanding China’s behaviour is most effectively done through a unitary actor framework, or whether it is essential to look inside the ‘black box’ of the Chinese party-state. Second, are the consequences of an overreaction or an underreaction more concerning when interpreting China’s intentions and responding to perceived threats. These dividing lines generate four ideal-type policy viewpoints that we label Balancers, Hedgers, Engagers and Reformers, and apply in the Australian context. We then overlay our framework onto the public debate in Australia, selecting a specific bounded case study: commentary and analysis concerning China’s behaviour throughout the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. [R, abr.]
72.1142 LIND, Michael —
The rise of China is likely to fashion a kaleidoscopic multipolar world order, as many countries, including former US allies, distance themselves from both China and the United States. [R]
72.1143 LIU Tianyang ; SONG Yao —
This study explores the paradiplomatic activities of Yunnan, a province in the south of China which, since the early 1990s, has actively engaged in cross-border cooperation. Combining the concept of paradiplomacy with the theory of actorness, this study first argues that Yunnan has been incentivized to conduct paradiplomacy through the decision of Beijing to open China’s borders; the inefficiency of the central government in managing border-related issues; and the interprovincial competition over economic and diplomatic clout in the Mekong subregion. Second, Yunnan’s new external affairs powers have been consolidated by a host of new opportunities stemming from the external environment. Third, Yunnan’s new external affairs powers have enabled it to leverage two broad instruments (infrastructure development and economic statecraft) to make neighboring countries more dependent on cooperation with it. [R, abr.]
72.1144 LOBELL, Steven E. ; ERNSTSEN, Jordan —
There is much debate about the impending collapse of the liberal international order. It is provoked by the shifts in material and military capabilities from emerging peer and near-peer competitors, some of whom were not part of the original grand bargain and others that are in a stronger position to renegotiate the bargain. As one critical element of the liberal international order, we ask, during power shifts: is the liberal international trading order (LITO) durable and resilient? When and why will the LITO collapse? Does the relative decline of the hegemon alone explain these outcomes? In advancing a second-image reversed plus argument, we highlight how a shift in the nature of the foreign commercial orientation of peer and near-peer contenders can alter the domestic balance of power of two broad and logrolled coalitions competing to capture the state and thus affect whether the erstwhile leader defends, renegotiates, or abandons the trading order it created. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1145 LÓPEZ JIMENEZ, J. A. —
This article aims to research Belarus foreign policy from its constitution as an independent republic — after the dissolution of the Soviet Union — to the present moment. The construction of the nation-state has been marked by several elements; the attempt to consolidate a neutral status, the strong dependence on Russia-economic, financial, military, cultural — and the configuration of a multivector policy. The difficulties derived from these three processes and the complexity to combine them — in some periods — during these almost three decades they also reflect the importance of international politics in an autocratic system. [R]
72.1146 LU Ding ; SUN Xuefeng —
Since the end of the Cold War, establishing partnerships has been part and parcel of the grand strategy of great powers. The partners that great powers seek fall under the two categories of security partners and political-economic partners. Statistics show a significant variation in the proportions of great powers’ security partners. The authors argue that such variation is mainly determined by two factors, namely, great powers’ strategic threats, and their ways of maintaining national security [self-help or security-dependent (on the US)]. Specifically, both the security-dependent great powers that are under China’s strategic threat and the self-help great powers that are under the US’s strategic threat have a higher proportion of security partners than the security-dependent great powers that are not under China’s strategic threat and the self-help great powers that are under China’s strategic threat. [R, abr.]
72.1147 LUKIN, Artyom —
The ‘strategic partnership’ between Moscow and Beijing is already more than two decades old and continues to evolve toward more consolidation, a trend which the coronavirus pandemic will only serve to accelerate. Its current state can be characterized as a quasi-alliance, or entente. The article first examines the Russia-China cooperation in the two most crucial areas — geo-economic and military. Then, it asks the question whether Moscow and Beijing could be on the verge of forming an alliance. The article proceeds to analyze the Russian–Chinese interaction in the areas of Eurasia where both of them have significant stakes and intersecting interests: East Asia, the post-Soviet space (with the focus on Central Asia), and the Arctic. Finally, the author draws up several scenarios envisioning the future of the Sino-Russian relationship. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1129]
72.1148 MANANTAN, Mark Bryan F. —
This article investigates the increasing prominence of deterrence in the practice of cyber diplomacy in the Asia Pacific. Using Japan and Australia as case studies, it argues that both states continue to adhere to the conceptual tenets of cyber diplomacy, however, in practice, there is a growing integration of deterrence — cyber capabilities and public attribution/naming and shaming — in the equation at varying degrees and intensities. The article endeavours to make two important contributions: First, revitalize the existing cyber diplomacy framework by challenging the extant literature’s view of deterrence’s limited application — underpinned by cold war analogies — and the implausibility of conducting attribution of cyberattacks. Secondly, evaluate Japan and Australia’s cyber diplomacy based on empirical evidence. [R, abr.]
72.1149 MANNING, Robert A. ; WILSON, Peter A. —
A zero-based assessment of US interests and policies in the Greater Middle East is long overdue. The new geostrategic map of the region, the legacy of failures, and the imperatives of great power competition require a new mindset. [R]
72.1150 MARK SiuSue ; OVERLAND, Indra ; VAKULCHUK, Roman —
This article studies the impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on economic actors in Myanmar. It hypothesizes that the BRI has strong transformative potential, because Chinese projects are likely to transform Myanmar’s economy on different scales and influence the allocation of economic benefits and losses for different actors. The study identifies economic actors in Myanmar who are likely to be most affected by BRI projects. It also discusses how BRI-related investments could affect the country’s complex conflict dynamics. The article concludes with policy recommendations for decision makers in Myanmar, China, and the international community for mitigating the BRI’s possible negative impacts. [R, abr.]
72.1151 MAZUMDAR, Arijit —
In 1991, India’s ‘Look East’ policy [was] designed to address India’s neglect of the Southeast Asian region during the Cold War period. [Its] purpose initially was to build closer economic and cultural ties with the countries of the region and with ASEAN in particular. The current Modi administration’s new ‘Act East’ policy has sought to expand these ties to include deeper security cooperation and defense partnerships as well. In addition, the new policy focuses on building ties with countries in the wider Asia-Pacific region, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea. The new policy is more than an exercise in rebranding. The primary goals behind the Act East policy are both to promote India’s economic growth and development and respond to China’s rise and expanding influence in the region. [R, abr.]
72.1152 MILANI, Carlos R. S. ; KLEIN, Magno —
Brazil’s government has historically engaged with other developing countries to promote technical cooperation. Since the 1988 federal Constitution, different presidents have paid attention to this foreign policy agenda. However, it was particularly under the Workers’ Party’s administrations (2003-2016) that South-South cooperation (SSC) gained political ground, rooted in official principles of South-South solidarity, horizontality, non-interference in domestic affairs, and the defence of a multipolar world-vision. In this article, based on the argument that international development cooperation (IDC) is a key instrument of a country’s economic diplomacy, we analyse the perceptions of Brazilian diplomats about SSC in order to understand Brazil’s interests and motivations in this field. Methodologically, the article discusses the main results of a survey conducted between 25 August and 23 September 2016 among 349 Brazilian individuals, who correspond to approximately 22 per cent of Brazil’s active diplomats. [R, abr.]
72.1153 MILLER, Benjamin —
How did the attempt to make the world more liberal end up making the West less liberal? Following the end of the Cold War the US tried to promote liberalism in various parts of the world. This promotion took place under the liberal belief in its universality. A few of these attempts succeeded, most notably the integration of China into the global economy. Many other liberalizing endeavours failed, notably democracypromotion in China, Russia and the Middle East. Yet, both the successes and the failures resulted in the rise of illiberal elements in the West as reflected in Brexit and Trumpism. The article shows how the outcomes of the attempts at liberalization — both the failures and the successes — generated these populist forces. The Chinese economic success took place at least partly because of the US-led integration of China into the international order. Yet, this success produced adverse economic effects in the West. Such outcomes led to the rise of economic populism. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1154 MITROVICH, Gregory —
While China’s rise may not trigger a Thucydides Trap with the US, the possibility of conflict remains due to increasing tensions in the South China Sea and the ratcheting up of threats against Taiwan. [R]
72.1155 MONEY, Jeannette —
Since the Second World War, globalization has been underpinned by a liberal international order, a rules-based system structured around the principles of economic interdependence, democracy, human rights and multilateralism. However, the relationship between international mobility and the liberal international order (LIO) is contested. In the article, I disaggregate ‘international mobility’ into three regimes: the travel regime, the voluntary (labour) migration regime, and the refugee regime — each governed by distinct norms and operating procedures. I outline the characteristics of the LIO that pertain to international mobility and provide evidence to demonstrate that none of the three dimensions of international mobility — travel, migration, and asylum — reflects these characteristics. Given the LIO principles enumerated above, the exclusion of international mobility from the LIO is surprising. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1156 MONTBRIAL, Thierry de —
Les temps actuels sont turbulents avec des puissances impériales aux ambitions contradictoires et en rivalité, notamment sur le plan idéologique. La Chine se veut la première puissance mondiale d’ici 2049. La France doit poursuivre ses efforts pour que le projet européen sorte renforcé et propose un modèle cohérent de développement. [R]
72.1157 MONTOYA, Ainhoa —
For over a decade, Salvadorean grassroots movements and NGOs pursued legal innovations with the aim of protecting their water sources from potentially polluting industrial activities such as mining. They initially drafted bans on mining that would preclude the extractive-based development path embraced by neighboring countries. Eventually, they scaled up their approach and devised a draft proposal for a transboundary waters treaty that addressed the challenges that the ecological materiality of international watercourses poses to national de jure sovereignty. In so doing, the transboundary watershed has become a useful heuristic, a spatial trope to which Salvadoreans have turned to substantiate their claims to sovereignty over the Lempa River waters that El Salvador shares with pro-mining Guatemala and Honduras — claims imbued with an ethics of care rooted in wartime politics and Catholic morality. [R]
72.1158 NETO, Octavio Amorim ; MALAMUD, Andrés —
When do presidents delegate policy-making authority to their foreign ministries? And is foreign policy unique in this respect? We posit that six international, national, and personal factors determine the opportunity and motivation of presidents to delegate, and then analyse the cases of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico in 1946-2015. By applying fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis, we find that four combinations of factors are sufficient paths to delegation: (1) international stability and elite consensus on foreign policy; (2) international stability, right-wing president, and low diplomatic professionalisation; (3) international stability, right-wing president, and low presidential expertise on foreign policy; or (4) absence of authoritarianism combined with elite consensus on foreign policy and right-wing president. [R, abr.]
72.1159 NITOIU, Cristian ; PASATOIU, Florin —
The aim of the article is to analyse the way the RIC (Russia, India and China) states understand resilience in the world order. In doing so, the article compares their interpretation to that developed by the EU. The first part of the article surveys the way the literature has analysed the role of resilience in the foreign policy of the EU. One of the main findings here is that the mainstream interpretation of resilience tends to be rather circular and leads to process of securitisation of the external environment. The second part of the article then presents and applies to the case of the RIC states a more nuanced framework that examines resilience along three complementary dimensions: resilience as ontology (attribute), as process and as outcome (agency and intentionality). [R] [See Abstr. 72.1129]
72.1160 NOWACK, Daniel —
Attempts to circumvent presidential term-limits in African countries show a puzzling variation of success or failure. This variation is due to both international and domestic factors. However, how these interact is not yet well understood. This article analyses how international donors and organisations intervened in the attempted term-limit circumvention in Malawi from 1999 to 2003. It differentiates between different types of instruments used by donors in democracy promotion, and, by doing so, contributes to the question whether donors in term-limit struggles can contribute to genuine democratic consolidation. It employs deductive process-tracing based on an analysis of primary media sources and interviews conducted during field research. [R, abr.]
72.1161 OBIYA, Shunsuke —
This article addresses debates surrounding the reform of the League of Nations from the viewpoint of Britain and China. They focused on the pros and cons of collective security because the failure of the League to stop Japanese invasion of Manchuria and Italian invasion of Abyssinia threatened the collapse of the League. There were two contrasting visions in debates, the ‘Coercive League’ and the ‘Consultative League’. The ‘Coercive League’ was the course to reinforce collective security to prevent further aggression. Conversely, the ‘Consultative League’ argument was to weaken collective security and induce Germany, Italy, and Japan to cooperate with the League. Deliberations took place in both the Council, in which great powers exerted a strong presence, and the Assembly, in which small powers made their voices heard. [R, abr.]
72.1162 ÖNIŞ, Ziya ; KUTLAY, Mustafa —
This article sketches an analytical framework to account for new patterns of global governance. We characterize the emergent postliberal international order as a new age of hybridity, which signifies that no overriding set of paradigms dominate global governance. Instead, we have a complex web of competing norms, which creates new opportunities as well as major elements of instability, uncertainty, and anxiety. We argue that democracy paradox constitutes the fundamental issue at stake in this new age of hybridity. On the one hand, global power transitions seem to enable “democratization of globalization” by opening more space to the hitherto excluded non-Western states to make their voices heard. On the other hand, emerging pluralism in global governance is accompanied by the regression of liberal democracy and spread of illiberalism that enfeeble “globalization of democratization.” [R, abr.]
72.1163 OWEN, John M. —
If it continues, deglobalization may lead not to atomization but two overlapping international orders: a liberal one (LIO) led by the United States, and an authoritarian-capitalist one (ACIO) led by China. This equilibrium could emerge because a central purpose of international orders is to preserve the domestic regimes of their Great Power sponsors. The United States and China have markedly different domestic regimes, and so as China continues to grow in power and influence, tension over the content of international order should continue to grow. I borrow from Darwinian evolution the notion of ‘niche construction’: just as organisms alter phenotype selection by manipulating their natural environments, states can alter the ‘selection’ of domestic regimes by shaping their international environments. Modes of international niche construction include foreign regime promotion, interdependence, transnational interaction and multilateral institutions. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1164 PAIKIN, Zachary —
Recent years have seen Moscow and Beijing driven closer together as their respective relations with Washington have deteriorated. While a normative convergence between Russia and China appears to be underway, there remains a legacy of historical mistrust in addition to potential irritants that could plague their bilateral relationship. Nonetheless, if Western sanctions against Russia and pressure on China continue unabated, they may have little option but to continue their rapprochement. Against this backdrop, this article will explore whether the two countries currently display a ‘thin’ or ‘thick’ bilateral relationship, making use of an English School theoretical framework. It will do so by exploring established English School concepts such as pluralism and solidarism and discussing notable literature within the School on contestation in order to derive conclusions regarding the potential future shape of international order in Eurasia. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1129]
72.1165 PAK Hui-Chol ; SON Hye-Ryon ; JONG Son-Kyong —
At present, some states are undertaking military interventions in different parts of the world, contending the ‘legitimacy’ of their i006Evocation of responsibility to protect civilians from a humanitarian crisis. Discussions at international forums concerning the concept of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) are inconclusive about its legal nature and application. While some scholars and states support the doctrine of R2P as being legitimate, others challenge or take a rather sceptical view. Divergent views seem to be originating from its incompatibilities with the rules of international law, including the Charter of the United Nations. What is controversial is that the supporters of R2P are mainly from the West, while objections to R2P are from developing countries mainly from West Asia or Africa. [R, abr.]
72.1166 PAQUIN, Stéphane —
International trade negotiations are dealing with increasingly sensitive issues for the federal governments. In this context, several federal governments are becoming aware that constitutional competence and their capacities to formulate and implement public policies are being discussed in the framework of trade negotiations. In response, several federal governments wish to be included in the multi-level dynamics of trade negotiations. However, the capacity of the federal governments to influence the outcome is asymmetrical and depends largely on their constitutional status. This article compares the role of Quebec with that of the Walloon region in trade negotiations between Canada and the EU. [R, abr.]
72.1167 PAUL, T. V. —
Liberalism has been the most successful political ideology during the past two centuries in withstanding challenges and adapting to new environments. The liberal international order, set up after the Second World War and strengthened at the end of the Cold War, is going through a series of crises, propelled by deglobalization pressures, and the rise of illiberal and populist leaders, all challenging the three pillars of the liberal order: democracy, economic interdependence and international institutions. Two critical reasons for the decline of the liberal order are internal in terms of income distribution and institutional malaise. The article argues that the demise of the liberal order is not inevitable provided liberal states take remedial measures and adapt to the new environment as they did in 1919, 1930s, the second half of the 1940s, 1960s and 1991. Reformed globalization, or re-globalization is essential for facing the geopolitical challenges emanating from China and other illiberal states. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1168 PETROVIC, Miloš —
Based on the analysis of the political processes and challenges during the UK’s EU membership, the author depicts the continued British resistance towards EU integration deepening. The author analyzes the hesitance towards the deepening of British-European relations through various examples, such as the two referendums on continued EU membership, various opt-outs, and the European agendas of various British governments. The paper also shows that despite skepticism towards integration deepening, the UK was constantly inclined towards EU enlargement, in part as a reflection of the security-defense logic of its transatlantic priorities. British politicians have been using numerous political, economic or social challenges during the past decade in order to secure growingly Euroskeptic votes. However, such narratives have resulted not only in greater support for Brexit but have also contributed to the political, identity, regional and other polarization. [R, abr.]
72.1169 PIEPER, Moritz —
This paper analyses the extent to which Kazakhstan’s agency in its interaction with China’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiative is shaped not only by Russia and China’s outward projection, but also de-centring practices at the regional and sub-national level. The Kazakhstani government has embraced China’s Silk Road economic belt (SREB — the land-based ‘belt’ of the BRI) and has aligned its ‘Nurly Zhol’ domestic stimulus programme with the SREB. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union increases Russian leverage over Kazakhstani trade and tariff policies. The advent of the BRI thus exacerbates, but has not caused, a partially competing logic behind Russia’s defensive regionalism and Kazakhstan’s professed multi-vector foreign policy. Contrasting the latter with Russian and Chinese geopolitical constraints imposed on the sociopolitical fabric of Kazakhstan, the paper examines how Kazakhstan is a microcosm for the dynamics of a new Eurasian order in the making. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1129]
72.1170 PORTER, Patrick ; MAITRA, Sumantra —
The issue is not whether the United States will pursue an “open world,” but how, and how expensively, it is forced to adjust to the realities of international life before the consequences of the doctrine run amok. [R]
72.1171 PROEDROU, Filippos —
Scholarly literature has recently developed the notions of Anthropocene geopolitics and planetary security. How these relate to and whether they inform states’ foreign policy, however, remains a largely underdeveloped issue. This article goes some way toward addressing this gap both theoretically and empirically. Theoretically, it unpacks how traditional and Anthropocene geopolitics diverge in their approach toward the security repercussions of climate change and teases out the emanating foreign policy implications. These revolve around different levels of climate ambition, divergent approaches to fossil energy geopolitics, and differing weighting of planetary security versus mainstream geopolitical threats. Against this theoretical background, this article empirically zooms in on the EU case to explore which geopolitical mindset guides EU’s pursuit of climate change concerns and their incorporation in the EU foreign policy design. [R, abr.]
72.1172 RABINOVYCH, Maryna —
The article aims to investigate the applicability of the ‘failing forward’ framework to the case of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). The ‘failing forward’ framework explains how the liberal intergovernmentalist and neo-functionalist developments shape policy dynamics in the ENP. It is, however, proven to be challenging to determine the initial policy incompleteness and, due to the influence of exogenous factors, also explain the origins of the Ukraine crisis using the framework. Although the ‘failing forward’ framework responds to the intellectual demand for stronger exchange between the theories of EU integration and the EU Foreign Policy Studies, it is not able to fully explain complex crises at the ‘high politics’ level. [R] [See Abstr. 72.213]
72.1173 RANJAN, Amit —
This article discusses the complicated and developing rivalry between India, China, and the US in the Maldives. It gives a detailed account of the relationships between each of these powers and the Maldives as a small state over recent years, particularly in the economic and military spheres, and in particular looks at the domestic impact of the country’s relationship with these large external powers as it attempts to steer the most advantageous course between them. [R]
72.1174 RASPOTNIK, Andreas; ØSTHAGEN, Andreas —
This article explores the interaction between EU foreign policy and the external dimension of fisheries policy in a specific case: a dispute over snow crab fisheries around the Norwegian Arctic Archipelago of Svalbard. We do two things: first, we examine a specific case that concerns both EU foreign policy and fisheries policy in order to understand the workings of the EU regarding these two policy domains. Second, we connect the dots between the EU’s external fisheries policy and the EU as a foreign policy actor in general, examining how intra-institutional dynamics matter when studying policy and its related developments in Brussels. This analysis of the snow-crab dispute between the EU and Norway illustrates how a relatively minor issue in fisheries policies is also relevant to the study of the foreign policy of the EU, and more generally for the links between foreign policy and fisheries as a nexus that is increasingly relevant in international politics. [R]
72.1175 RIDDERVOLD, Marianne ; NEWSOME, Akasemi —
The global commons the High Seas, Antarctica, the Atmosphere, and Outer Space — are resource domains outside the authority of states. Historically, the global commons have been practically inaccessible and thus rarely subject to sovereignty claims and international regulations. With technological advances and environmental developments, the global commons have become a key site for international relations (hereinafter IR). In spite of often competing claims from state and nonstate actors to these areas, the global commons have remained mainly cooperative. This is not what one would expect from most IR perspectives in a close to anarchical environment and a volatile geopolitical international environment. This special issue sets out to address this puzzle by asking: to what extent and why is there little conflict in the global commons? For this purpose, this introduction develops a common framework that distinguishes between three models and corresponding hypotheses of the factors affecting the level of cooperation and conflict in these domains. [R, abr.] [Introduction to a thematic issue on “The global commons”. See Abstr. 72.64, 166, 244, 1086, 1099, 1105, 1321]
72.1176 RIPSMAN, Norrin M. —
Commercial liberalism would suggest that whereas globalization was conducive to great power cooperation — or at least moderated competition — deglobalization is likely to ignite greater competition amongst the Great Powers. In reality, however, the picture is much more complex. To begin with, the intense globalization of the 1990s and 2000s is not responsible for moderating Great Power tensions; instead, it is itself a product of the security situation resulting from the end of the Cold War. Furthermore, while globalization did serve to reinforce cooperation between the United States and rising challengers, such as China, which sought to harness the economic gains of globalization to accelerate their rise, it also created or intensified fault-lines that have led to heightening tensions between the Great Powers. Finally, while we are currently witnessing increasing tensions between the US and both China and Russia, deglobalization does not appear to be the primary cause. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1128]
72.1177 RIVA, Sara ; ROUTON, Erin —
This article explores the mechanisms in which, through the US family detention asylum process, neoliberal ideas of citizenship are reinforced and contested. Through ethnographic research, and using a Foucauldian lens, we take a closer look at the neoliberal processes involved within so-called family detention. Specifically, we focus on legal advocates who are helping detained women prepare for their legal interviews. This paper argues that humanitarian aid work becomes knowable through attention to microlevel details and forms of practice — on the ground and at the margins. This affords a recognition of not only areas of functional solidarity or symbiosis with the state, but also those less visible forms of contestation. We claim that while legal advocates play a role within the neoliberal regimes at work inside these centres, they also contest this system in various critical ways, ensuring both access to legal representation for all detainees and their eventual release. [R]
72.1178 ROEHRIG, Terence —
In 2020, the US sought to implement its policy of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific to address the challenge of a rising China. US-China antagonism increased, spurred on by economic tensions and concerns for Beijing’s actions with respect to Hong Kong, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Uighurs, with all this occurring in the context of the global pandemic. As the Trump administration came to a close, the most pressing question was how the turn to great power competition, which intensified in 2020, would evolve under a Biden administration. [R]
72.1179 ROSS, Madelyn —
For almost forty years beginning in 1978, US-China education links were widely considered a clear benefit to both countries. Today, academic relationships have become a focal point of the current crisis in US-China relations. A web of suspicion has come down over Chinese students and scholars in the US, as well as Chinese scientists and entrepreneurs. Some members of the Trump administration have even talked about cancelling all Chinese student visas. This article focuses on Chinese students and scholars in the US. It examines the flashpoints of academic espionage and China’s influence operations on American campuses, looks at how American institutions are responding, and closes with recommendations and reflections. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1180 ROZES, Stéphane —
L’Occident jusqu’à présent percevait la globalisation comme positive, car de conception néolibérale. Or, ce mouvement se retourne désormais au profit de l’orient et singulièrement de la Chine. Le retrait du monde occidental est en partie dû à des causes endogènes et oblige celui-ci à repenser ses objectifs. [R]
72.1181 SADIQ, Kamal ; TSOURAPAS, Gerasimos —
The evolution of migration policymaking across the Global South is of growing interest to International Relations. Yet, the impact of colonial and imperial legacies on states’ migration management regimes outside Europe and North America remains under-theorised. How does postcolonial state formation shape policies of cross-border mobility management in the Global South? By bringing J. F. Hollifield’s framework of the contemporary ‘migration state’ in conversation with critical scholarship on postcolonialism, we identify the existence of a ‘postcolonial paradox,’ namely two sets of tensions faced by newly independent states of the Global South: first, the need to construct a modern sovereign nationstate with a well-defined national identity contrasts with weak institutional capacity to do so; second, territorial realities of sovereignty conflict with the imperatives of nation-building seeking to establish exclusive citizenship norms towards populations residing both inside and outside the boundaries of the postcolonial state. [R, abr.]
72.1182 SAGER, Abdulaziz —
Le désengagement américain au Moyen-Orient est une réalité depuis Obama, même si l’ampleur du mouvement a été relativement réduite. Cela oblige cependant les États de la région à revoir leur position, d’autant plus que l’instabilité reste une réalité et que d’autres puissances, comme la Russie, ou la Chine y ont des intérêts. [R]
72.1183 SAKWA, Richard —
Russia today is presented as out to subvert the West. The chosen means are meddling in elections and sowing discord in Western societies. Russia in this imaginary looms over an unsuspecting West, undermining democracy and supporting disruptive forces. No longer couched in terms of the Cold War struggle between capitalism and communism, this is a reversion to great power politics of the rawest sort. However, is this analysis correct? Is Vladimir Putin out to undermine the West to achieve his alleged goal of re-establishing some sort of post-Soviet ‘greater Russia’ imperial union in Russia’s neighbourhood, to weaken the Atlantic power system and to undermine the liberal international order? The paper challenges the view that Russia is trying to reconstitute a Soviet-type challenge to the West, and provides an analytical framework to examine the dynamics of Russian foreign policy and on that basis assesses Russia’s real rather than imaginary aspirations. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1129]
72.1184 SAMORUKOV, Maksim —
Since the country became independent, Belarus has been reliant on Russia as an energy supplier and a sales market. The two states also have close political ties, and formally are even a Union State with integrated defence and economic structures. Recently, President Lukashenka attempted to reduce Belarus’ dependence on Russia. The power crisis in Belarus resulting from the brazen falsification of the presidential election in August 2020 has international dimensions. The EU has its own concerns and is not interested in Belarus. Lukashenka has been discredited. The outcome of the crisis therefore depends largely on Russia. The Belarusian regime is only able to survive with Moscow’s support, with the Kremlin alone deciding whether Lukashenka will remain at its head, and if so, for how long. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1328]
72.1185 SANKEY, Evan —
Japan is finally becoming an activist, sometimes ruthless defender of its interests — a “normal” nation, in other words. The US needs to start treating it as such. [R]
72.1186 SAVAGE, Jesse Dillon —
Hierarchy in international relations has often been understood as an arrangement with a single dominant state controlling aspects of the subordinate actor’s sovereignty. While such arrangements play an important role in structuring international politics, it does not exhaust the forms that hierarchy can take. Very often hierarchies have developed where multiple states jointly claim control of the same sovereign rights of the subordinate state. This paper introduces a new conceptualization of hierarchy where the sovereign rights of the subordinate state are understood as a resource that can be controlled by multiple dominant states. As with other resources, different types of property regimes can be developed to organize access and extraction of sovereignty, such as common property resources regimes. [R, abr.]
72.1187 SCHOTTHOEFER, Alexander ; BYUN Oung —
Existing literature explaining the origin of the Iraq War is often either not sufficiently compatible with securitization theory’s assumptions or overlooks the importance of the dynamics preceding the securitization attempt. This article thus seeks to explain why George W. Bush decided to securitize Saddam Hussein’s Iraq by focusing on an individual level analysis of the US president. The article utilizes Roxanna Sjöstedt’s framework that includes the analysis of the idea diffusion process, identities as potential facilitators of idea acceptance and beliefs that affect the individual internalization of the said idea. The results show that all three factors were decisive for the securitization of Iraq to occur. Furthermore, they suggest the implication that individual-level factors also have significant and independent explanatory value in addition to more conventional system-level analyses of international security. [R]
72.1188 SELIGSOHN, Deborah —
US-China research and technical cooperation has covered the full range of health-related topics, with no area given more attention than research and technical cooperation on emerging infectious diseases. In the wake of the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the US ramped up the staff presence of its Center for Disease Control (CDC) in China. Although this changed in the Obama years, as China’s epidemiological capacity developed rapidly, the dramatic shift occurred with the Trump administration, whose cuts, just as COVID-19 arose as the largest epidemiological threat to the world in a century, left only a skeleton staff in place, and the US government without eyes and ears on the ground. Nonetheless, there is a reservoir of mutual respect and willingness to cooperate among the health professionals in both countries. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1189 SHARMA, Isha —
This article focuses on the theoretical fortification in the mainstream IR when it comes to transboundary environmental threats. Since the threats of climate change and environmental degradation cannot be contained within the sovereign territories of states, the state-centric conception of the political order in the conventional approaches to IR fails to respond to the threats that are planetary in nature. The article asks: (a) What are the inadequacies in the realist and liberal concepts of political order vis-à-vis climate change? (b) How to destabilize the conventional assumptions of political order with the aim of making it more receptive to the concerns associated with climate change? It delves into the work of Robert Cox in order to delineate his intersubjective approach, which combines the material basis of political order with social relations of production. [R, abr.]
72.1190 SIMES, Dimitri K. —
The future of US-Russia relations is largely America’s choice. If the United States cannot settle for anything short of unquestioned hegemony, Russia will indubitably prove a serious impediment, prepared to challenge it. [R]
72.1191 SINGH, Akanksha —
The concept of ‘Responsibility to Protect’ (R2P) took shape to refine the contested concept of ‘humanitarian intervention’. In the initial phase, the concept of R2P did not receive enthusiastic endorsement. Developing countries including India perceived it as a new body with the old spirit and likened it with the concept of humanitarian intervention, and this was reinforced by the US-led war against Iraq in 2003. However, the 2005 World Summit proved to be a watershed in the evolution of R2P, just as it is a landmark to understand an important phase of India’s approach to the idea. It would not be accurate to characterize India as a determined nay-sayer on R2P endorsement, particularly in view of the widely known priority India attached at the World Summit to the question of United Nations (UN) Security Council enlargement. Eventually, by 2009 (with the introduction of ‘three- pillar principles’ of R2P), India became a major proponent for the cautious and legitimate implementation of R2P. [R, abr.]
72.1192 SOBOLIK, Michael —
Washington’s instinctual response to compete with the Belt and Road initiative dollar-for-dollar is a losing proposition that plays into China’s long game. But with an offensive framework, American policymakers could turn the tables and transform the BRI into an albatross for a communist party. [R]
72.1193 SON Daekwon —
This article investigates the linkage between Kim Jong-un’s power consolidation and Pyongyang’s abrupt return to the denuclearization negotiation table in 2018. It argues that behind Pyongyang’s turnabout lie the three unstable pillars of the Kim family’s rule: a faithful winning coalition, the juche ideology, and Chinese patronage. Upon taking office in 2011, Kim had to debilitate his father’s winning coalition to consolidate his power. With the winning coalition enervated, Kim could not expect its willingness to suppress the masses were they to develop into an ejectorate, and therefore introduced market reforms to secure the people’s support. The reforms, in return, inevitably eroded the ideological appeal of the Kim family, thereby rendering his hold on power more vulnerable to economic pressure. It is due to the instability of these three pillars that Kim Jong-un returned to the negotiating table. [R, abr.]
72.1194 SOUTOU, Georges-Henri —
La fin de la guerre froide avec la réunification allemande obligeait la France à revoir sa politique étrangère. François Mitterrand, à défaut d’anticiper, réussit à s’adapter à des changements géopolitiques profonds, sans pour autant parvenir à construire un système européen de sécurité indépendant des États-Unis. [R]
72.1195 SPANDLER, Kilian —
This article argues the varying explanatory power of classical integration theories corresponds to regional dynamics of normative arguing. To this end, it introduces a model of regional integration that draws on theories of communicative action and the English School. Unlike the rationalist frameworks of intergovernmentalism and neofunctionalism, this approach puts the discursive constitution of integration front and center. Instead of treating competing integration logics of as objective causal mechanisms, it conceptualizes them as frames used by original actors in discourses about institutional change. The resonance of these frame depends on a normative context of regional primary institutions. A comparative case study of legalization processes in the EU and the ASEAN demonstrates the varying relevance of functionalist frames for the development of regional organizations. [R, abr.]
72.1196 SUTTER, Robert —
This article briefly reviews China’s past path toward accommodation of existing world norms and provides an assessment of various unconventional means as well as conventional measures Beijing recently has used to gain international influence. Building on the findings of a variety of recent studies showing the breadth and depth of the multifaceted means used by the Chinese government to expand influence abroad in ways that undermine, weaken, and challenge existing international norms favored by the US and its allies and partners, the article concludes that the consequences of recent Chinese actions to expand influence abroad do indeed weaken US and Western leadership and open the way for legitimation and greater international acceptance of Chinese norms very much at odds with the existing status quo favored by the US? [R, abr.]
72.1197 SYARIP, Rakhmat —
Scholars have devoted little attention to foreign policy motive of Indonesia’s free trade agreement (FTA) policy. This article finds that, under competitive international pressure, Indonesia has instrumentalised some FTAs to serve its “ASEAN-first” foreign policy, specifically to ensure the geopolitical and geo-economic relevance of ASEAN. Three FTAs display this motive: the ASEAN Free Trade Area, later extended to the ASEAN Economic Community, the ASEAN–China FTA, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Domestically, the pro-ASEAN group has supported this motive against other influential domestic actors, especially the nationalist and the pro-liberalisation groups. However, diffused political authority has led to an inconsistent FTA policy across various trade policymaking phases. The “pro-ASEAN” FTA policy has been relatively stronger in both the negotiation and ratification, but substantially weaker in the implementation phases. [R]
72.1198 TABACHNIK, Alexander ; MILLER, Benjamin —
The American political, military and economic dominance established after the dissolution of the USSR is showing a tendency to decline. This demands an adaptation of an American grand strategy toward the changing of reality, and particularly an adaptation of the strategy toward Revisionist Russia while significant American resources are redirected toward East Asia in order to balance the PRC. We assume that neither primacy nor offshore balancing nor restraint provides a satisfactory solution for the balancing of Russia. We believe that primacy may cause an overstretching to US capabilities and at the same time this GS is excessive for the balancing of Russia, especially considering that, in the long-run perspective, Russia’s capability to project power outside its borders will decline due to Russian structural weakness. Similarly, the strategies of restraint and offshore balancing tend to underestimate the power which Russia still possesses and the threat which it may pose to American interests and allies around the world, as has been demonstrated by Russian policy toward Ukraine. [R, abr.]
72.1199 TELES FAZENDEIRO, Bernardo —
States, governments and leaders often reject one another’s role prescriptions. They stick to enacting their role, what they consider to be their central purpose and main promise within a given international society. By applying the main tenets of role theory, this essay looks at the reasons why actors sometimes reject the prescriptions of others, including attempts at bargaining. Rather than claiming that those prescriptions are rejected on account of the pursuit of self-identity or ontological security, this essay suggests that those positions have more to do with defending the public credibility of one’s master role, the core promise made by an actor to (domestic and/or international) audiences. Master roles have to do with the main promises of an actor in a given social and political order, thereby providing credibility to a domestic and international audience. Without maintaining credibility, the actor is unlikely to be able to fulfil master and auxiliary roles as initially set out. [R, abr.]
72.1200 TICHÝ, Lukáš —
The main aim of the article is to compare the energy relations of the EU with current (here represented by Angola) and potential energy-resource suppliers (here represented by Tanzania) in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2007-2018. In this article, the external actorness of the EU in its energy relations is analysed and specified based on a set of predefined criteria of a modified concept: (1) external recognition of the EU energy actorness by third parties; (2) goals and interests of EU energy policy; and (3) instruments and resources of EU energy policy. The criteria are then applied to two case studies focused on Angola and Tanzania in order to demonstrate whether the EU can be considered as an actor in regard to these two Sub-Saharan Africa countries. While Angola does not recognize the EU as an energy actor, Tanzania meets all of the requirements for the recognition of EU energy actorness. [R]
72.1201 TOOZE, Adam —
Under Joe Biden, the US is striving to be a leader in climate protection. But even with the announced billions in domestic investments, Washington is doing less than it could. Not least, the massive political polarization threatens to slow down the ecologically necessary change. [R, trad.]
72.1202 TORKUNOV, Anatoly —
President V. Putin’s proposal to convene a first-ever meeting of the five nuclear powers, the founders of the UN, to discuss pressing common problems, seems as timely as ever. [R]
72.1203 TREVISAN, Claudia —
China has become an important dimension of US relations with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In the last twenty years, China has increased its trade, investments, financial, and political ties with the region, an area of US influence for most of the 20th c. As has been the case globally, the Trump administration has increased its pressure against China in LAC. The Brazilian experience shows that countries in the region are being pressured to make policy choices that effectively require them to renounce their own interests in response to Washington’s demands. Both the US and China are crucial partners to LAC and the possibility of being forced to choose between them is among the main strategic risks the region faces. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1204 TROY, Jodok —
There are several considerations of the papacy’s vision of what global politics should be like. There are, however, few mappings of the papacy’s actual concept of global politics, of how it evaluates the current state of global politics, understood as global political, social, and economic trends, patterns, actors and their relationships. This article delineates Pope Francis’ conception of global politics and contextualises it within the papacy’s trajectory of participating in global politics. Attending to a particular concept, of how the pope thinks about global politics, helps to better understand and place the papacy in the study of global politics. The article shows how Francis conceptualises global politics from below, from the periphery of society and politics, which leads him to unmask global inequalities. [R, abr.]
72.1205 TROYANSKY, Mikhail ; KARPOVICH, Oleg —
The formation of a new multipolar system would seem to lead the world toward rationality and order, but a number of states are insisting on the need to preserve anarchy in international relations and on the right to use technologies of controlled chaos. [R]
72.1206 TRUJILLO DEL ARCO, Ángela —
For two decades, there has been a strong agreement in the international legal system on what is meant by the crime of trafficking in persons and how its human rights perspective should be addressed. However, such standards are not fully taken on board by the Spanish anti-trafficking strategy. While the Spanish legal system outlaws trafficking in line with the international consensus, its de facto fight seems to be guided by an outdated conception of the crime that hardly satisfies the international obligations assumed by the State. The analysis of such a disparity is necessary since the failure to act with due diligence to prevent such a human rights violation is likely to generate international state responsibility. [R]
72.1207 UK Heo —
The biggest stories of the year 2020 were the COVID-19 pandemic and a trade dispute between the US and China. The pandemic significantly damaged the Asian economies. The US-China trade war halted after a phase one trade deal and the pandemic, but the future is unclear. [R]
72.1208 VALIYEV, Anar ; BILALOVA, Shahana —
Driven by an increased interest in enhancing connectivity, great powers are in the competition to implement their transportation projects. Meanwhile, small states located in the crossroad of the transportation routes are offered with benefits while facing several challenges. In this regard, the current article studies three major transportation initiatives in the South Caucasus region from both political and economic perspectives. The article will try to analyze how these might challenge the regional hegemony of Russia. Hereinafter, by looking at the case of Azerbaijan, the role of small states throughout this process is identified. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1129]
72.1209 VOSS, Christian —
In 2020 Bulgaria started a feud with North Macedonia with the reproach of falsifying its own and Bulgarian history. Threats to block the start of EU membership talks with the Western Balkan countries North Macedonia and Albania followed. The article fact-checks the Bulgarian arguments: Since the 1950s a distinct Macedonian standard language exists. The regional history of Macedonia of the 19thand early 20th century can be told as a spill-over of Bulgarian nation-building to the region then still belonging to the Ottoman Empire and later to the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes. It can also be narrated from the perspective of the local population among which a Macedonian identification developed before 1944 — as indifference and/or resistance against the increasingly violent nationalisation attempts from Belgrade, Sofia and Athens and the internal colonisation after the Balkans Wars. [R, abr.]
72.1210 WALLIS, Joanne —
The Australian government demonstrates strategic anxiety about the ‘crowded and complex’ geopolitics of the Pacific Islands region. This reflects its broader concerns about geostrategic competition in the ‘Indo-Pacific’, and its perception that Pacific states are ‘small’ and ‘weak’ and therefore vulnerable to influence from potentially hostile powers. Simultaneously, the government has vowed to ‘step-up’ its engagement with its ‘Pacific family’, emphasising that its relationships with Pacific states will be characterised by respect for, and listening to them, as equals. But while the government has articulated its intention to improve its relationships with Pacific states, puzzlingly, it adopts policies that undermine this goal. This article analyses how and why this occurs. [R, abr.]
72.1211 WEBSTER, Andrew —
This article reviews the most recent volume in the series of archival document collections on the history Australia’s external affairs, Documents on Australian Foreign Policy, covering the years 1920 to 1930. It focuses upon two main themes of central importance to the Australian global presence in that decade: the organisation and purposes of the Empire-Commonwealth and the impact of the League of Nations. [R]
72.1212 WELLER, Christoph —
This article discusses those ethical challenges of research in International Relations (IR) that occur even before entering the empirical field and that do not end with the finalisation of data collection and analysis. As a scientific discipline that focuses on international peace, IR have a particular ethical concern that reflect increasingly global and epistemological challenges. This contribution seeks to stimulate such a debate by discussing three issues: ethically grounded theoretical decisions, the requirements for a political science that has socio-political relevance, and questions of communication of scientific insights and the ethical dimensions in this process. The article aims to outline trenchantly that the necessity of ethical reflections goes far beyond the empirical process of data generation but starts earlier and ends later as often expected. [R]
72.1213 WHEELER, Nicholas J. ; HOLMES, Marcus —
One of the central puzzles in the study of diplomacy is why some interactions between leaders result in positive social bonds, while others are mired in distrust and hostility. Recent research in the field of microsociology, the study of everyday interactions, most notably the pioneering research of American sociologist Randall Collins, suggests several critical ingredients for a successful interaction, including bodily copresence. In this article we interrogate this claim and provide theoretical reasons why textual communication may serve as a proxy for copresence in leader interactions. We demonstrate that while copresence, in the form of face-to-face interaction, is required for strong bond formation, mediated interaction in the form of letters can serve to create weak social bonds. The strength of weak bonds is in the reduction of distrust and the gradual development of trust that can be critical to the de-escalation of crises. [R, abr.]
72.1214 WINANTI, Poppy S. ; ALVIAN, Rizky Alif —
This article analyzes how and why contemporary Global South countries’ South-South cooperation (SSC) exhibits a convergence between normative and material interests. The normative approach underlines that SSC is driven by a country’s experience with colonialism and underdevelopment. SSC is perceived as a mechanism to alter the Global South’s asymmetrical relations with the dominant Global North. The material approach highlights the strategic values of SSC for Southern powers. Through SSC, Southern countries desire to improve their reputation, garner support from other South countries in international fora, and pursue their own broader economic agendas. Indonesia’s experience shows that a more pragmatic approach to SSC reflects a broader transformation of Indonesia’s domestic political configuration. Indonesia’s current policies display a convergence of its material and normative interests, which signifies the emergence of ‘interest-based Third World solidarity’. [R, abr.]
72.1215 WU, Charles K. S., et al. —
As Biden begins his presidency, scholars and analysts have started to assess the prospects for Sino-US relations. We take stock of the initial and directions of the US and China so far and offer our views of the prospects for the relationship moving forward. Our assessment centers on answering whether the Biden administration will revert to the same China policy of the previous Obama administration and what impact the Biden administration’s position on China will have on US hegemony. Additionally, we explore one of the potential points of conflict between the US and China, that is, the Taiwan question. In particular, we weigh in on the debate over whether a cross-Strait war could take place in the next several years. [R, abr.]
72.1216 YANG, Dali L. —
This article assesses US-China relations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, the US-China trade war created an atmosphere of bitterness and mistrust in bilateral relations and also prompted the Chinese leadership to seek to enhance its “discourse power” through “wolf warrior” diplomacy. This atmosphere hampered US-China communication and cooperation during the initial phase of the pandemic. The unleashing of “wolf warrior” diplomacy as the pandemic spread round the world, especially in the US, has exacerbated US-China relations and served to accelerate the transition of US policy toward China from constructive engagement to strategic competition. [R] [First article of a thematic issue on “US-China relations in crisis”. See also Abstr. 72.1070, 1071, 1080, 1081, 1097, 1111, 1133, 1136, 1138, 1179, 1188, 1203, 1218, 1220]
72.1217 YIN Weiwen —
Existing literature focuses on how domestic and international institutions address investor–state disputes and attract foreign direct investment (FDI). However, contractual disputes between foreign and domestic firms are largely neglected. For foreign investors, dispute-resolution mechanisms that can effectively resolve contractual disputes are very important as well. I examine the effect of institutions that conduct arbitrations for disputes between foreign and domestic firms on FDI inflows. Focusing on the within-country variation of China, I find that provinces with CIETAC (China International Economic and Trade Arbitration Commission) agencies receive a higher level of FDI. These agencies attract FDI because they can credibly signal that local governments are truly willing to treat foreign investors fairly when they have disputes with local firms. [R, abr.]
72.1218 YUNG, Christopher —
Although the US and Chinese security relationship has been tense for over three decades, the last three years has seen it slide into acute crisis. The two countries are in a full-blown security dilemma, going after each other’s “core interests,” using their alliances and partnerships to attempt to weaken or restrain the other, and pushing aside confidencebuilding measures designed to help manage the competitive relationship. Before deriving new policy measures that can foster habits of cooperation between the two countries, the US and China must create a new strategic consensus around which the bilateral security relationship can be defined. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1219 ZAJĄCZKOWSKI, Kamil ; KUMAR, Arvind —
In the contemporary geopolitical environment, this article outlines the issues and challenges faced by Africa and explores India-EU cooperation in addressing them. An attempt has been made to analyse this cooperation within the context of dynamic changes taking place in Africa. On the one hand, the essence of the phenomenon of Africa as a potential market is presented; on the other hand, it is depicted as a continent of challenges and threats. These factors have been assessed and analysed independent of China’s growing role in Africa. While describing both EU and India’s engagements in Africa, the article outlines specific areas of cooperation including defence and security, development cooperation, trade and investment, infrastructure development, climate challenges, and strengthening institutions of democracy. [R]
72.1220 ZHA Daojiong —
This essay discusses setbacks to societal level of interactions between the US and China resulting from the Trump administration’s turn to comprehensive confrontation. Bilateral cooperation in areas like public health, technology trade and development, law enforcement, and trade in food and energy has been severely curtailed. Future efforts to repair damage to bilateral relations will have to begin with these and related areas that indisputably have a direct impact on individual welfare in the two societies. [R] [See Abstr. 72.1216]
72.1221 ZHENG Yixiao —
There has been a momentous shift in China’s international strategy towards a continental orientation since the early 2010s. Underpinning this geostrategic reorientation is a new continentalism expressed in a growing sense of optimism about China’s geopolitical potential in the continental direction. This emerging continentalism is in keeping with an expansionist foreign policy line that has paved the way for a geostrategic outlook oriented towards expansion. As an unstated geostrategic doctrine, this expansionist continentalism serves to provide a new sense of direction for Chinese geostrategy and reflects a reappraisal of the relevance of continental geography for expansionist ends. [R]
72.1222 ZIEGLER, Charles E. —
China and Russia consider themselves great powers, and there is agreement in both Beijing and Moscow on cooperating to limit or constrain America’s ability to dominate international relations and challenge their sovereignty. [R]
72.1223
Articles by Marija PEJÈINOVIAE BURIAE, “Council of Europe: safety net of human rights instruments”, pp. 41-51; Ivan SOLTANOVSKY, “Russia and the Council of Europe: 25 years together”, PP; 52-63. Pyotr TOLSTOY, “Open, equal democratic dialogue: there are the principles on which we develop PACE”, pp. 64-80; Tatyana MOSKALKOVA, “Cooperation between the Russian commissioner for human rights and the Council of Europe: history, achievements and prospects”, pp. 81-95; Mikhail GALPERIN, “Russia in the Council of Europe: 25 years of legal and judicial cooperation”, pp. 96-101.