A Nation in Decline? Migration and Emigration from the Cook Islands

The Cook Islands is the largest of several Pacific island microstates experiencing absolute population decline, raising questions over national viability. Since its peak of 21,300 in 1971 the population has almost halved, mainly through depopulation of the twelve outer islands. The population of the main island, Rarotonga, has remained constant. Decline has been particularly rapid following economic problems and restructuring in the mid-1990s, while return migration has been slight. Skilled migrants, especially health workers, have been most prone to migration, for educational, economic and social reasons, facilitated by unimpeded entry into Australia and New Zealand. Workers increasingly join the health system with the intention of subsequent migration. Both the education and health system are short of skilled workers, and service delivery is worsening. Economic growth through tourism may slow migration, but will not prevent it, and further overall population decline seems probable.