Natural decrease is no longer rare in the United States. By 1989, 34 percent of all U.S. counties had experienced at least one year of it. Natural decrease is most common in rural areas remote from metropolitan centers. Regional concentrations of natural decrease exist in the Great Plains, the Corn Belt, and East Texas with scattered pockets in the Ozark-Ouachita Uplands, Upper Great Lakes, and Florida. Natural decrease is caused by age structure distortions stimulated by protracted, age-specific migration. Although temporal variations in fertility also contribute to natural decrease, these variations are not due to below average fertility. Natural decrease is symptomatic of fundamental changes in the demographic structure of an area.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AlonsoW.1980. Population as a system in regional development. American Economic Review70: 405–9.
2.
BealeC. L.1964. Rural depopulation in the United States: Some demographic consequences of agricultural adjustments. Demography1: 264–72.
3.
BealeC. L.1969. Natural decrease of population: The current and prospective status of an emergent American phenomenon. Demography6: 91–99.
4.
BealeC. L.FuguittG. V.. 1990. Decade of pessimistic nonmetro population trends ends on optimistic note. Rural Development Perspectives6 (3): 14–18.
5.
BowlesG. K.TarverJ. D.. 1965. Net migration of the population, 1950–1960, by age, sex, and color. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
6.
BowlesG. K.BealeC. L.LeeE. S.. 1975. Net migration of the population, 1960–1970, by age, sex, and color. Athens, Ga.: University of Georgia.
7.
BrownD. L.DeaversK.. 1987. Rural change and the rural economic policy agenda for the 1980s. In Rural economic development in the 1980s. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Report No. AGES870724.
8.
Bureau of the Census. 1992. 1990 census of population and housing: Modified age/race/sex and Hispanic origin (MARS) data. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
9.
ButtonJ. W.1992. A sign of generational conflict: The impact of Florida's aging voters on local school and tax referenda. Social Science Quarterly73: 786–97.
10.
CochraneS. G.ViningD. R.Jr1988. Recent trends in migration between core and peripheral regions in developed and advanced developing countries. International Regional Science Review11: 215–43.
11.
DornH. E.1939. The natural decrease of population in certain American counties. Journal of the American Statistical Association34: 106–9.
12.
FrenzenP. D.1991. The increasing supply of physicians in U.S. urban and rural areas, 1975–88. American Journal of Public Health81: 1141–47.
13.
FuguittG. V.1985. The nonmetropolitan turnaround. Annual Review of Sociology11: 259–80.
FuguittG. V.BrownD. L.BealeC. L.. 1989. Rural and small town America. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
16.
GlasgowN.ReederR. J.. 1990. Economic and fiscal implications of nonmetropolitan retirement migration. Journal of Applied Gerontology9: 433–51.
17.
GreenwoodM. J.1988. Changing patterns of migration and regional economic growth in the U.S.: A demographic perspective. Growth and Change19 (4): 68–87.
18.
HadyT. F.RossP. J.1990. An update: The diverse social and economic structure of nonmetropolitan America. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Report No. AGES9036.
19.
HawleyA. H.1973. Ecology. Chapel Hill, N.C.: University of North Carolina, Department of Sociology.
20.
HeatonT. B.LichterD. L.AmoatengA.. 1989. The timing of family formation: Rural-urban differentials in first intercourse, childbirth, and marriage. Rural Sociology54: 1–16.
IssermanA. M.1985. Economic-demographic modeling of endogenously determined birth and migration rates: Theory and prospects. Environment and Planning A17: 25–45.
23.
JohnsonK. M.1989. Recent population redistribution trends in nonmetropolitan America. Rural Sociology54: 301–26.
24.
JohnsonK. M.PurdyR. L.. 1980. Recent nonmetropolitan population change in fifty year perspective. Demography17: 57–70.
25.
KorcelliP.1982. Migration and urban change. International Regional Science Review7: 193–216.
26.
LedentJ.1982. The factors of urban population growth: Net migration versus natural increase. International Regional Science Review7: 99–125.
27.
LichterD. T.De JongG. F.. 1990. The United States. In International handbook on internal migration, eds. NamC. B.SerowW. J.SlyD. F.. New York: Greenwood Press.
28.
LichterD. T.FuguittG. V.HeatonT. B.CliffordW. B.. 1981. Components of change in the residential concentration of the elderly population: 1950–1975. Journal of Gerontology6: 480–89.
29.
LichterD. T.McLaughlinD. K.CornwellG. T.. 1990. Migration and the loss of human resources in rural America. In Investing in people: The human capital needs of rural America, eds. BeaulieuL. J.MulkeyD.. New York: Greenwood Press.
30.
LongL. E.1988. Migration and residential mobility in the United States. New York: Russel Sage Foundation.
31.
O'ConnellM.1981. Regional fertility patterns in the United States: Convergence or divergence?International Regional Science Review6: 1–14.
32.
PanditK.1992. Regional fertility differentials and the effect of migration: An analysis of U.S. state-level data. Geographical Analysis24: 352–64.
33.
PlaneD. A.1989. Population migration and economic restructuring in the United States. International Regional Science Review12: 263–80.
34.
SellR. R.1990. Future population: A demographic projection system for microcomputers. Durham, N.C.: Duke University.
35.
ShryockH. S.SiegelJ. S.. 1973. The methods and materials of demography. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.
36.
SouthS. J.1991. Age structure and public expenditures on children. Social Science Quarterly72: 661–75.
37.
TavesM. J.1961. Consequences of population loss in rural communities. In Labor mobility and population in agriculture. Ames: Iowa State University Center for Agriculture and Economic Adjustment.
38.
van de KaaD. J.1987. Europe's second demographic transition. Population Bulletin42 (1).
39.
WhiteM. J.MueserP.TierneyJ.. 1987. Net migration of the population of the United States, 1970–1980, by age, race, and sex. Ann Arbor, Mich.: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.
