Global Energy and The Greenhouse Issue

Global energy production and use results in the release of CO₂ and other gases to the atmosphere which affect the atmosphere's radiative character. The accumulation of CO₂ and other radiatively important gases (RIGs) is thought to result in higher mean global surface temperatures and other climatic changes, whose character would vary regionally around the globe. Of critical importance to determining the timing and magnitude of global climate change is an understanding of long-term global energy systems.

Major changes have occurred since the last Congress of the World Energy Conference reviewed the relationship between energy and the global greenhouse. At the time of the last review, the relationship between energy and the greenhouse focused exclusively on CO₂ emissions. The focus has widened to embrace other trace gases including, methane (CH₄ nitrous oxide (N₂O), trichloro-fluoromethane (CFCl₃ or CFC-11) and dichloro-difluoromethane (CF₂Cl₂ or CFC-12) as radiativly active gases and carbon monoxide (CO) and other oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) as radiatively important, but not radiatively active species. The major consequence of this inclusion has been to advance the time when a greenhouse effect could be anticipated.

Additional changes in the field include an increasing recognition of the interrelationship of land-use patterns and energy (especially the link between land-use patterns and the harvesting and burning of traditional biomass fuels) and the extension of models to produce time-dependent scenarios of the effects of energy production, transformation and end-use on climate.

The shift in research has opened up a new era of uncertainty. The links between human activities, energy and CO₂ were relatively simple by comparison to the relationships between energy and other radiatively important gases (RIGs). Whereas the relationship between human activities, energy and CO₂ has matured to the point where it can be characterized by uncertainty analysis, the analysis of energy and non-CO₂ RIGs is in its infancy.

Interest in options to alter the rate of growth of greenhouse gas emissions has intensified, particularly since the 1988 Toronto Climate Conference. Substantial work is underway to build on earlier efforts in this field.

This paper will document the current understanding of the relationship between human activities, energy, CO₂ and other RIGs, survey the global greenhouse forecast literature, and give some assessment of forecast uncertainty.