Abstract
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has had profound effects not only on international tourism but also on academic research investigating tourism economics and geographies. This special issue aims to address some of the research issues that have emerged as a result of COVID-19.
This special issue opens with a study of the effects of COVID-19 on European tourism by Plzáková and Smeral. These researchers examine factors that affect the demand for tourism in 19 European countries using contemporary econometric approaches. Specific attention is paid to the symmetric income elasticities caused by the pandemic. Based on the models developed, Plzáková and Smeral generate scenario forecasts of the demand for tourism in these countries up to 2022. Their results show that following the deep slump in 2020, the demand for tourism in Europe will not recover to pre-COVID-19 levels until after 2022, and that the recoveries of different destinations will depend on vaccination coverage and consumer confidence.
The second study by Provenzano and Volo focuses on forecasts of tourism recovery in a particular destination: Lombardy, an Italian region that was hit hard by COVID-19. An augmented seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, with additional external factors that reflect the influence of the pandemic, is used to generate scenario forecasts of tourism recovery in Lombardy. Based on these forecasts, Provenzano and Volo suggest that for a speedy recovery of tourism demand in Lombardy, external interventions should be applied. These include, for example, directing economic resources toward encouraging domestic tourism in the absence of international tourists.
Wang, Meng, Siriwardana and Pham use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China to assess the effects of COVID-19 on the Chinese economy, with a particular focus on tourism-related industries. The simulation results show that tourism-related industries have suffered far more than other sectors of the Chinese economy from the negative impacts of COVID-19. These authors suggest that to mitigate the negative impacts China should invest more in public goods to stimulate consumption (including tourism consumption). Wang, Tian, Filimonau, Ning and Yang focus on the revenue loss of A-grade attractions in China based on a survey of 4222 visitor attractions. The total revenue loss of these attractions in China is calculated using the data triangulation method. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a total loss of US$21 billion in revenue income for tourist attractions in China.
Using an ordered logit model, Cai, Li, Liu and Wen evaluate the influence of motivational factors on tourists’ intention to visit post-disaster destinations. They identify different tourist segments according to pull–push motivations and tourist demographics, providing suggestions of systematic recovery strategies for industry stakeholders post-pandemic. Zhang and Lu use an autoregressive distributed lag error correction model and a compound scenario analysis to forecast the demand for different types of hotel rooms in Hong Kong during the COVID-19 pandemic. The recovery scenarios for these hotel rooms differ from source market to source market, according to a travelable index developed by these authors. Complementing this study of commercial hotels, Hess and Vilchez assess the impact of COVID-19 on short-term peer-to-peer rental accommodations in Barcelona using a panel data approach. Their results show that all types of peer-to-peer rental accommodation suffered significant declines in demand. Based on this assessment, they suggest several supply adaptation strategies to mitigate the decline in demand. Using a mixed methods approach, Tapsall, Soutar, Elliott, Mazzarol and Holland examine the risk perceptions of Australian cruisers and non-cruisers. Their results suggest that the most common risks perceived by both cruisers and non-cruisers are heath, financial, safety and psychological risks, though the level of risk perceived by different consumer groups may vary according to their cruise experience.
The final paper in this special issue is a bibliometric analysis of sharing economy research related to tourism. Vila-Lopez and Kuster-Boluda identify existing research themes and visualizes the connections between different research themes, going on to discuss future research directions related to peer-to-peer sharing businesses in the tourism sector. The results indicate that peer-to-peer sharing tourism businesses need to improve consumer trust through innovation, enhance the tourist experience by providing authentic products and services, and meet the increasing consumer demand for sustainable development.
The articles included in this special issue are timely additions to an increasing body of literature on COVID-19 and tourism. They will certainly provide new perspectives on tourism economics and economic geography, and I hope they will stimulate new discussions and debates on these topics.
I would like to give special thanks to Elaine Yang and Joseph Cheer, who were involved in the initial development of this special issue. The issue was developed in connection with a special track at the 2021 Council for Australasia Hospitality and Tourism Education Conference on a similar theme.