Does tourism diplomacy campaigns promote inbound tourism? Evidence based on quasi-natural experiments

In recent years, the Chinese government has been conducting Tourism Year campaigns. This study aims at conceptualizing and evaluating the effects of these Diplomacy campaigns on China’s inbound tourism. Methodologically, we treat the Tourism Year campaigns as a quasi-natural experiment, and draw on the Propensity Score Matching and the multi-phase Difference-in-Differences regression approach (PSM-DID) to investigate the relation between policies and arrivals. The results show that China’s Tourism Year campaigns significantly promote China inbound tourism. Second, the promotional effects on inbound tourism are lagged. Third, the Tourism Year initiative increases inbound tourism mainly through increasing positive public opinion and diplomatic relations. The empirical evidence presented here provides a decision-making reference for restoring and revitalizing the development of inbound tourism.