Testing for recency effects of early life exposure to violence variety on risk for carrying firearms among adjudicated youth: A hazard modeling approach

Reducing firearm carrying among youth may help to prevent gun violence. Exposure to violence has been identified as a risk factor for firearm carrying, but there is a dearth of research that has examined exposure to violence variety as a predictor in this regard. Similarly, research on recency effects of exposure to violence on this outcome is also limited. This study analyzed data from all 11 waves of the Pathways to Desistance study. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the relevance of pre-adjudication exposure to violence for predicting onset of firearm carrying during the years following adjudication among this sample of serious youth offenders. The potential that the effect of pre-adjudication exposure to violence variety changed during the study period was also investigated. Results indicated that greater variety of pre-adjudication exposure to violence was associated with quicker time to and greater overall risk for firearm carrying among these serious youth offenders. Results also indicated that this effect diminished as more study time passed. These findings indicate that screening for pre-adjudication exposure to violence variety may be relevant for preventing firearm carrying and potentially gun violence among serious youth offenders, though there may be limits based on recency of these exposures. This would be particularly concerning as more and more time has passed since adjudication, as the effects of these exposures to violence earlier in life will begin to wane, indicating the need for early identification and intervention.