Coordinating public intentions and predicted trend in regulatory decisions: A method for demarcation of UGBs

Urban growth boundaries (UGBs) are commonly used for governance of urban growth. For demarcation of UGBs, the prediction models are prized for their automation and high efficiency in spatial data processing. However, public intentions, which cannot be predicted by prediction models, are ignored. This ignorance affects the performance of UGBs and urban development. From the perspective of regulatory tools, this article proposes public intentions and predicted trend as the two decisive elements for demarcation of UGBs. Following this thought, the study develops a method for coordination of their conflicts by providing a decision criteria for policy makers based on estimation of the cost to intervene predicted trend. This method is incorporated into a process of demarcation of UGBs and applied in the case of Tianjin, China. Results show that firstly, policy makers of UGBs should consider conflicts between public intentions and predicted trend and coordinate them for land development. Secondly, in the method for coordination, the decision criteria based on intervention costs can be used to make choice between public intentions and predicted trend and to choose suitable strategies for two types of conflicts. Thirdly, combined with the method for coordination, the process of demarcation is improved with multiple perspectives and methods for providing sufficient reference. Lastly in the case of Tianjin, China, it is verified that the decisions of land development and UGBs are made differently from the considerations of individual or public interests. To optimize the UGBs based on the method for coordination, four categories of strategies are matched with those conflict areas, and supporting measures are proposed correspondingly.