Palaeoclimate records from late-Holocene sediments in Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the USA, provide evidence that both decadal to centennial climate variability and European colonization had severe impacts on the watershed and estuary. Using pollen and dinoflagellate cysts as proxies for mid-Atlantic regional precipitation, estuarine salinity and dissolved oxygen (DO) during the last 2300 years, we identified four dry intervals, centred on ad 50 (P1/D1), ad 1000 (P2/D2), ad 1400 (P3) and ad 1600 (P4). Two centennial-scale events, P1/D1 and P2/D2, altered forest composition and led to increased salinity and DO levels in the estuary. Intervals P3 and P4 lasted several decades, leading to decreased production of pine pollen. Periods of dry mid Atlantic climate correspond to ‘megadroughts’ identified from tree-ring records in the southeastern and central USA. The observed mid-Atlantic climate variability may be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation resulting in longer-term, perhaps amplified, intervals of meridional flow. After European colonization in the early seventeenth century, forest clearance for agriculture, timber and urbanization altered estuarine water quality, with dinoflagellate assemblages indicating reduced DO and increased turbidity.
Alve, E.1991: Foraminifera, climatic change, and pollution: a study of late Holocene sediments in Drammensfjord, southeast Norway . The Holocene1, 243–261 .
2.
Bartlein, P.J. , Prentice, I.C. and Webb, T. III1986: Climatic response surfaces from pollen data for some eastern North American taxa . Journal of Biogeography13, 35–57 .
3.
Baucom, P.C. , Bratton, J.F. and Colman, S.M.2000: Geochronology of Marion-Dufresne cores MD99-2204, 2207, and 2209, Chesapeake Bay. In Cronin, T.M. , editor, Initial report on IMAGES V cruise of the Marion Dufresne to Chesapeake Bay June 20–22, 1999, US Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-306, 49–71.
4.
Bazzaz, F.A.1974: Ecophysiology of Ambrosia artemisiifolia, a successional dominant . Ecology55, 112–119 .
5.
Bernabo, J.C. and Webb, T. III1977: Changing patterns in the Holocene pollen record of northeastern North America: a mapped summary . Quaternary Research8, 64–96 .
6.
Boicourt, W.C.1992: Influences of circulation processes on dissolved oxygen in the Chesapeake Bay. In Smith, D.E. , Leffler, M. and Mackiernan, G. , editors, Oxygen dynamics in the Chesapeake Bay – a synthesis of recent results, College Park, MD: Maryland Sea Grant , 7–59.
7.
Boyer, D.1981: Pollen production and dispersal as affected by seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns . In Franklin, E.C., editor, Pollen management handbook, Forest Service Handbook587, 2–9 .
8.
Boynton, W. and Kemp, M.1985: Nutrient regeneration and oxygen consumption by sediments along an estuarine salinity gradient . Marine Ecology Progress Series23, 45–55 .
9.
Braun, E.L.1950: Deciduous forests of Eastern North America. Philadelphia: The Blakiston Company .
10.
Brewster-Wingard, G.L. , Ishman, S.E. , Edwards, L.E. and Willard, D.A.1996: Preliminary report on the distribution of modern fauna and flora at selected sites in north-central and north-eastern Florida Bay . US Geological Survey Open-File Report96-732, 1–34 .
11.
Brush, G.S.1984: Patterns of recent sediment accumulation in Chesapeake Bay (VA, MD, U.S.A.) tributaries . Chemical Geology44, 227–242 .
12.
Brush, G.S. and Brush, L.M.1994: Transport and deposition of pollen in an estuary: signature of the landscape. In Traverse, A. , editor, Sedimentation of organic particles, New York: Cambridge University Press , 34–46.
13.
Brush, G.S. and DeFries, R.S.1981: Spatial distributions of pollen in surface sediments of the Potomac Estuary . Limnology and Oceanography26, 295–309 .
14.
Brush, G.S. and Hillgartner, W.B.2000: Paleoecology of submerged macrophytes in the Upper Chesapeake Bay . Ecological Monographs70, 645–667 .
15.
Brush, G.S. , Lenk, C. and Smith, J.1980: The natural forests of Maryland: an explanation of the vegetation map of Maryland . Ecological Monographs50, 77–92 .
16.
Bryson, R.A. and Wendland, W.M.1967: Tentative climatic patterns for some Late Glacial and Post-Glacial episodes in central North America. In Mayer-Oakes, W.J. , editor, Life, land and water, Winnipeg: University of Manitoba Press , 271–298.
17.
Buzas M.A.1990. Another look at confidence limits for species proportions . Journal of Paleontology64, 842–843 .
18.
Castro, C.L. , McKee, T.B. and Pielke, R.A. Sr2001: The relationship of the North American monsoon to tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperatures as revealed by observational analyses . Journal of Climate14, 4449–4473 .
19.
Chesapeake Shipboard Scientific Staff2000: IMAGES V coring in Chesapeake Bay, June 20–22, 1999. Introduction. US Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-306, 1–17.
20.
Colman, S.M. and Halka, J.P.1989: Maps showing Quaternary geology of the southern Maryland part of the Chesapeake Bay. US Geological Survey Miscellaneous Field Studies Map 1948C.
21.
Colman, S.M. and Mixon, R.B.1988: The record of major Quaternary sea-level changes in a large coastal plain estuary, Chesapeake Bay, eastern United States . Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology69, 99–116 .
22.
Colman, S.M. , Baucom, P.C. , Bratton, J.F. , Cronin, T.M. , McGeehin, J.P. , Willard, D.A. , Zimmerman, A.R. and Vogt, P.R.2002: Radiocarbon dating, chronologic framework, and changes in accumulation rates of Holocene estuarine sediments from Chesapeake Bay . Quaternary Research57, 58–70 .
23.
Cooper, S.R. and Brush, G.S.1991: Long-term history of Chesapeake Bay anoxia . Science254, 992–996 .
24.
Cronin, T. , Colman, S. , Willard, D. , Kerhin, R. , Holmes, C. , Karlsen, A. , Ishman, S. and Bratton, J.1999: Interdisciplinary environmental project probes Chesapeake Bay down to the core . EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 80, 237, 240–241 .
25.
Cronin, T. , Willard, D. , Karlsen, A. , Ishman, S. , Verardo, S. , McGeehin, J. , Kerhin, R. , Holmes, C. , Colman, S. and Zimmerman, A.2000: Climatic variability in the eastern United States over the past millennium from Chesapeake Bay sediments . Geology28, 3–6 .
26.
Davis, R.B. and Webb, T. III1975: The contemporary distribution of pollen in eastern North America, a comparison with the vegetation . Quaternary Research5, 395–434 .
27.
Dean, W.E.1997: Rates, timing, and cyclicity of Holocene eolian activity in north-central United States: evidence from varved lake sediments . Geology25, 331–334 .
28.
DeFries, R.S.1986: Effects of land-use history on sedimentation in the Potomac Estuary, Maryland . US Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper2234-K, K1–K23 .
29.
Delcourt, P.A. and Delcourt, H.R.1984: Late Quaternary paleoclimates and biotic responses in eastern North America and the western North Atlantic Ocean . Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology48, 263–284 .
30.
Delcourt, P.A. , Delcourt, H.R. and Webb, T. III1984: Atlas of mapped distributions of dominance and modern pollen percentages for important tree taxa of eastern North America. American Association of Stratigraphic Palynologists Contributions Series 14.
31.
de Vernal, A. , Goyette, C. and Rodrigues, C.G.1989: Contribution palynostratigraphique (dinokystes, pollen et spores) à la connaissance de la mer de Champlain: coupe de Saint-Césaire, Québec . Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences26, 2450–2464 .
32.
Edwards, L.E. and Anderle, V.A.S.1992: Distribution of selected dinoflagellate cysts in modern marine sediments. In Head, M.J. and Wrenn, J.H. , editors, Neogene and Quaternary dinoflagellate cysts and acritarchs, Dallas: American Association of Stratigraphic Palynologists Contributions Series , 259–288.
33.
Edwards, L.E. and Willard, D.A.2001: Dinoflagellate cysts and pollen from sediment samples, Mississippi Sound and Gulf of Mexico. In Gohn, G.S. , editor, Paleontology and geology of Mississippi Sound sediments, US Geological Survey Open-File Report 01-415.
34.
Eleuterius, C.K. and Beaugez, S.L.1979: Mississippi Sound, a hydrographic and climatic atlas. Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Publication MASGP79-009.
35.
Ellegaard, M.2000: Variations in dinoflagellate cyst morphology under conditions of changing salinity during the last 2000 years in the Limfjord, Denmark . Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology109, 65–81 .
36.
Fritz, S.C. , Ito, E. , Yu, Z. , Laird, K.R. and Engstrom, D.R.2000: Hydrologic variation in the northern Great Plains during the last two millennia . Quaternary Research53, 175–184 .
37.
Gottschalk, L.C.1945: Effects of soil erosion on navigation in upper Chesapeake Bay . The Geographical Review35, 219–237 .
38.
Gray, J.S. and Abdullah, M.I.1996: Are there negative trends in oxygen saturation along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast?Limnology and Oceanography41, 810–812 .
39.
Greller, A.M.1988: Deciduous forest. In Barbour, M.G. and Billings, W.D. , editors, North American terrestrial vegetation, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press , 288–316.
40.
Hack, J.T. and Goodlett, J.C.1960: Geomorphology and forest ecology of a mountain region in the central Appalachians . US Geological Survey Professional Paper347, 1–66 .
41.
Hagen, R.A. and Vogt, P.R.1999: Seasonal variability of shallow biogenic gas in Chesapeake Bay . Marine Geology158, 75–88 .
42.
Halka, J.P. , Vogt, P.R. and Czarnecki, M.2000: Marion-Dufresne coring in Chesapeake Bay: geophysical environment at sites MD99-2204 and 2207 . In Cronin, T.M., editor, Initial report on IMAGES V cruise of the Marion-Dufresne to Chesapeake Bay June 20–22, 1999, US Geological Survey Open-File Report00-306, 40–48 .
43.
Halley, R.B. and Roulier, L.M.1999: Reconstructing the history of Eastern and Central Florida Bay using mollusk-shell isotope records . Estuaries22, 358–368 .
44.
Harland, R.1983: Distribution maps of recent dinoflagellate cysts in bottom sediments from the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas . Palaeontology26, 321–387 .
45.
Harman, J.R.1991: Synoptic climatology of the westerlies: process and patterns. Washington, DC: Association of American Geographers .
46.
Henderson-Sellers, A. and Robinson, P.J.1986: Contemporary climatology. Harlow: Addison Wesley Longman .
47.
Hocker, H.W. Jr1956: Certain aspects of climate as related to the distribution of loblolly pine . Ecology37, 824–834 .
48.
Howarth, R.W. , Fruci, J.R. and Sherman, D.1991: Inputs of sediment and carbon to an estuarine ecosystem: influence of land use . Ecological Applications1, 27–39 .
49.
Iversen, J.1941: Land occupation in Denmark's Stone Age . Danmarks Geologiske Undersøgelse. II. Raekke66, 1–68 .
50.
Iverson, L.R. , Prasad, A.M. , Hale, B.J. and Kennedy Sutherland, E.1999: Atlas of current and potential future distributions of common trees of the Eastern United States. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report NE-265.
51.
Jaworski, N.A. , Howarth, R.W. and Hetling, L.J.1997: Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen oxides onto the landscape contibutes to coastal eutrophication in the northeast United States . Environmental Science and Technology31, 1995–2004 .
52.
Johannessen, T. and Dahl, E.1996a: Declines in oxygen concentrations along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast, 1927–1993: a signal of ecosystem changes due to eutrophication . Limnology and Oceanography41, 766–778 .
53.
Johannessen, T. and Dahl, E.1996b: Historical changes in oxygen concentrations along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast: reply to the comment by Gray and Abdullah . Limnology and Oceanography41, 1847–1452 .
54.
Jorgensen, B.B. and Richardson, K. , editors 1996: Eutrophication in coastal marine ecosystems. Washington, DC: American Geophysical Union .
55.
Karlsen, A.W. , Cronin, T.M. , Ishman, S.E. , Willard, D.A. , Kerhin, R. , Holmes, C.W. and Marot, M.2000: Historical trends in Chesapeake Bay dissolved oxygen based on benthic foraminifera from sediment cores . Estuaries23, 488–508 .
56.
Keever, C.1983: A retrospective view of oldfield succession after 35 years . American Midland Naturalist110, 397–404 .
57.
Kerhin, R.T. , Williams, C. and Cronin, T.M.1998: Lithologic descriptions of piston cores from Chesapeake Bay, Maryland. US Geological Survey Open-File Report98-787.
58.
Kosisky, S.E. and Carpenter, G.B.1997: Predominant tree aeroallergens of the Washington, DC area: a six year survey (1989–1994) . Annals of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology78, 381–392 .
59.
Krupa, K. and Daugherty, A.1996: Major land uses (1945–1992). United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service .
60.
Laird, K.R. , Fritz, S.C. , Grimm, E.C. and Mueller, P.G.1996a: Century-scale paleoclimatic reconstruction from Moon Lake, a closedbasin lake in the northern Great Plains . Limnology and Oceanography41, 890–902 .
61.
Laird, K.R. , Fritz, S.C. , Maasch, K.A. and Cumming, B.F.1996b: Greater drought intensity and frequency before ad 1200 in the Northern Great Plains, USA . Nature384, 552–554 .
62.
Leathers, D.J. , Yarnal, B. and Palecki, M.A.1991: The Pacific/North American teleconnection patterns and United States climate. Part I: regional temperature and precipitation associations . Journal of Climate4, 517–528 .
63.
Malone, T.C.1991: River flow, phytoplankton production and oxygen depletion in Chesapeake Bay. In Tyson, R.V. and Pearson, T.H. , editors, Modern and ancient continental shelf anoxia, London: Geological Society , Special Paper 58, 83–93.
64.
Marshall, H.G. and Alden, R.W.1988: Spatial and temporal diatom assemblages and other phytoplankton within the lower Chesapeake Bay, USA. 10th Diatom Symposium, 311–321.
65.
Mo, K.C. , Paegle, J.N. and Higgins, R.W.1997: Atmospheric processes associated with summer floods and droughts in the central United States . Journal of Climate10, 3028–3046 .
66.
Montroy, D.L.1997. Linear relation of central and eastern north American precipitation to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies . Journal of Climate10, 541–558 .
67.
Nagy, J. and Alve, E.1987: Temporal changes in foraminiferal faunas and impact of pollution in Sandebukta, Oslo Fjord . Marine Micropaleontology12, 109–128 .
68.
Odgaard, B.V. and Rasmussen, P.1998: The use of historical data and sub-recent (ad 1800) pollen assemblages to quantify vegetation/pollen relationships. In Gaillard, M-J. and Berglund, B.E. , editors, Quantification of land surfaces cleared of forests during the Holocene – modern pollen/vegetation/landscape relationships as an aid to the interpretation of fossil pollen data, Paläoklimaforschung (Paleoclimate Research) 27, 67–75.
69.
Overpeck, J.T. , Webb, T. III and Prentice, I.C.1985: Quantitative interpretation of fossil pollen spectra, dissimilarity coefficients and the method of modern analogs . Quaternary Research23, 87–108 .
70.
Peterson, D. , Cayan, D. , DiLeo, J. , Noble, M. and Dettinger, M.1995: The role of climate in estuarine variability . American Scientist83, 58–67 .
71.
Schubel, J.R. and Pritchard, D.W.1986: Responses of upper Chesapeake Bay to variations in discharge of the Susquehanna River . Estuaries9, 236–249 .
72.
Seliger, H.H. and Boggs, J.A.1988: Long term pattern of anoxia in the Chesapeake Bay. In Lynch, M.P. and Krome, E.C. , editors, Understanding the estuary: advances in Chesapeake Bay research, Chesapeake Bay Research Consortium Publication No. 129, 570–583.
73.
Smith, D.E. , Leffler, M. and Mackiernan, G.1992: Oxygen dynamics in the Chesapeake Bay – a synthesis of results. College Park, MD: Maryland Sea Grant .
74.
Stahle, D.W. and Cleaveland, M.K.1992: Reconstruction and analysis of spring rainfall over the southeastern U.S. for the past 1000 years . Bulletin American Meteorological Society73, 1947–1961 .
75.
Stahle, D.W. and Cleaveland, M.K.1994. Tree-ring reconstructed rainfall over the southeastern U.S.A. during the Medieval Warm Period and little ice Age . Climatic Change26, 199–212 .
76.
Stahle, D.W. , Cleaveland, M.K. , Blanton, D.B. , Therrell, M.D. and Gay, D.A.1998: The lost colony and Jamestown droughts . Science280, 564–567 .
77.
Stahle, D.W. , Cleaveland, M.K. and Hehr, J.G.1985. A 450-year drought reconstruction for Arkansas, United States . Nature316, 530–532 .
78.
Stahle, D.W. , Cleaveland, M.K. and Hehr, J.G.1988: North Carolina climate changes reconstructed from tree rings, ad 372–1985 . Science240, 1517–1519 .
79.
Stahle, D.W. , Cook, E.R. , Cleaveland, M.K. , Therrell, M.D. , Meko, D.M. , Grissino-Mayer, H.D. , Watson, E. and Luckman, B.H.2000: Tree-ring data document 16th century megadrought over North America . EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union81, 121, 125 .
80.
Steer, H.B.1948: Lumber production in the United States 1799–1946. United States Department of Agriculture Miscellaneous Publication 669.
81.
Stuiver, M.A. and Reimer, P.J.1993: Extended 14C data base and revised CALIB 3.0 14C age calibration program . Radiocarbon35, 215–230 .
82.
Swart, P.K. , Dodge, R.E. and Hudson, H.J.1996a: A 240-year stable oxygen and carbon isotopic record in a coral from south Florida, implications for the prediction of precipitation in southern Florida . Palaios11, 362–375 .
83.
Swart, P.K. , Healy, G.F. , Dodge, R.E. , Kramer, P. , Hudson, J.H. , Halley, R.B. and Robblee, M.B.1996b: The stable oxygen and carbon isotopic record from a coral growing in Florida Bay: a 160 year record of climatic and anthropogenic influence . Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology123, 219–237 .
Turon, J.-L.1984: Le palynoplancton dans l'environnement de l'Atlantique nord-oriental. é volution climatique et hydrologique depuis le dernier maximum glaciaire. Mémoires de l'Institut de Géologie du Bassin d'Aquitaine17, 1–313 .
86.
Turon, J.-L. and Londeix, L.1988: Les assemblages de kystes de dinoflagelles en Mediterranee occidentale (Mer d'Alboran); mise en evidence de l'evolution des paleoenvironnements depuis le dernier maximum glaciaire . Bulletin des Centres de Recherches Exploration-Production ElfAquitaine12, 313–344 .
87.
US Department of Commerce1946–98: Bureau of Census, Lumber Production and Mill Stocks Reports. Current Industrial Reports, MA24T series.
88.
Vega, A.J. , Rohli, R.V. and Sui., C.H.1999: Climatic relationships to Chesapeake Bay salinity during Southern Oscillation extremes . Physical Geography20, 468–490 .
89.
Vega, A.J. , Sui, C.H. and Lau, K.M.1998: Interannual to interdecadal variations of the regionalized surface climate of the United States and relationships to generalized flow parameters . Physical Geography19, 271–291 .
90.
Vogt, P.R. , Czarnecki, M. and Halka, J.P.2000: Marion-Dufresne coring in Chesapeake Bay, geophysical environment at sites MD99-2204 and 2207 . US Geological Survey Open-File Report00-306, 32–39 .
91.
Wall, D. , Dale, B. , Lohmann, G.P. and Smith, W.K.1977: The environmental and climatic distribution of dinoflagellate cysts in modern marine sediments from regions in the North and South Atlantic Oceans and adjacent seas . Marine Micropaleontology2, 121–200 .
92.
Wallace, J.M. and Gutzler, D.S.1981. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter . Monthly Weather Review 109, 784–812 .
93.
Willard, D.A. and Korejwo, D.A.2000: Holocene palynology from Marion-Dufresne cores MD99-2209 and 2207 from Chesapeake Bay, impacts of climate and historic land-use change. In Cronin, T.M. , editor, Inital report on IMAGES V cruise of the Marion-Dufresne to Chesapeake Bay June 20–22, 1999, US Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-306, 78–86.
94.
Willard, D.A. , Verardo, S. , Cronin, T.M. and Korejwo, D.A.2000: Impacts of climate and land-use changes on Chesapeake Bay and its watershed . Supplement to EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union81, S185-S185 .
95.
Willard, D.A. , Weimer, L.M. and Holmes, C.W.2001: The Florida Everglades ecosystem, climatic and anthropogenic impacts over the last two millennia . In Wardlaw, B.R., editor, Paleoecology of South Florida, Bulletins of American Paleontology361, 41–55 .
96.
Woodhouse, C.A. and Overpeck, J.T.1998: 2000 years of drought variability in the Central United States . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society79, 2693–2714 .
97.
Yarnal, B. and Leathers, D.J.1988. Relationships between interdecadal and interannual climatic variations and their effect on Pennsylvania climate . Annals of the Association of American Geographers78, 624–641 .
98.
Zimmerman, A.R. 2000: Organic matter composition of sediments and the history of eutrophication and anoxia in Chesapeake Bay. PhD dissertation, Gloucester Point, VA: College of William and Mary.
99.
Zimmerman, A.R. and Canuel, E.A.2000: A geochemical record of eutrophication and anoxia in Chesapeake Bay sediments: anthropogenic influence on organic matter composition . Marine Chemistry69, 117–137
100.
Zimmerman, A.R. and Canuel, E.A.2003: Sediment geochemical records of eutrophication in the mesohaline Chesapeake Bay. Limnology and Oceanography, in press.
