Using Data Known at the Time of Admission to Predict First-Generation College Student Success

Abstract

The authors use data known at the time of initial enrollment to explore the first-year GPAs and second-year retention of first-generation (FGCS) and non-first-generation (non-FGCS) college students. The setting was a diverse, public, urban doctoral institution (approximately 50% FGCS and 30% minority). Multiple linear and logistic regressions run separately for FGCSs and non-FGCSs, included variables related to financial, academic, integration, and demographic factors. While FGCSs had lower retention and significantly lower GPAs than non-FGCSs, the pattern of predictive factors varied by group. Greater academic preparation was significant in all analyses. Minority students were more likely to persist than White students. Out-of-state residency was a predictor of higher GPA, but also a predictor of FGCS attrition. The authors discuss the value of using data known upon admission and suggest future research to explore how institutional composition may influence FGCS success.

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