Abstract
The recently proposed basic uncertain information can directly present numerical uncertainties for given real values, but it cannot handle given interval values which themselves also have uncertainties. Against this background, this work proposes the concept of interval basic uncertain information which serves as a generalization of basic uncertain information and involves two types of uncertainties. We analyze some basic operations, weighted arithmetic mean and preference transformation for interval basic uncertain information. The Rule-based decisions and the comprehensive certainty of interval basic uncertain information are also discussed. An illustrative example of multi-source multi-criteria evaluation under interval basic uncertain information environment is presented.
Keywords
Introduction
In numerous evaluation and decision making problems, the concerned data and information involve ever-increasing more uncertainties. The different types of uncertainties include interval information, fuzzy information, probability information, and some mathematical equivalences, extensions or variations of them including intuitionistic fuzzy information [1, 2], vague information [3], hesitance information [4], and so forth.
Handling different types of uncertainties usually may increase complexity and inconsistency in decision making, and therefore a general paradigm for uncertainty concept is convenient and flexible for practitioners to apply. Recently, basic uncertain information (BUI) [5, 6] has been proposed to serve as an uncertain paradigm which provides a uniform and quantified uncertainty measure in dealing with uncertain decision making. Based on BUI, many decision making, information fusion techniques and applications are soon developed by researchers [7–13]. The study of BUI has also potential to be applied on many other areas such as in aggregation theory and computational intelligence [14–22].
A BUI granule is expressed by a pair (a, c) ∈ [0, 1] 2 in which a is the (main concerned) value while c is the certainty degree of a. In this paradigm, a large c indicates that a is known or obtained with high certainty, confidence or precision and vice versa. In addition, 1 - c is called the uncertain degree of a. When c = 1, a is considered to be the exact value; and c = 0 indicates that there is actually no accurate or effective information about the exact value of a. Due to the flexibility in practical meanings, BUI can be applied in different semantics. For example, when the predicted market share of a product is provided by 100a% from investigators, a group of m experts may believe it with different extents
However, in practice decision makers may often be faced with some uncertainty information which itself is with interval form and still attached with a numerical certainty degree c. In actual, this situation is indeed reasonable and practical. The information decision makers require often is obtained in form of interval numbers and together with a numerical uncertain degree. For example, when an expert estimates the production rate of a factory in the next year, it may be an interval; when a collection of experts estimate, it may be several different values which after censoring can be also reported as an interval. Hence, a decision maker may still be only partly convinced with the reported interval (i.e., a numerical certainty degree c can be still assigned to it).
In general, an interval basic uncertain information (IBUI) granule can be expressed as the form ([a, b] , c). This work will present some detailed definitions, expressions, transformations, aggregations and applications of IBUI, as well as some basic applications in evaluation and decision making areas.
The remainder of this article is organized as follows. Section 2 provides with some basic concepts and related definitions. Section 3 formally proposes interval basic uncertain information with some related basic operations, aggregation and transformations. Section 4 discusses rule-based decisions and the comprehensive certainty of IBUI. In Section 5, we present some detailed decision procedures together with a numerical example for multi-source multi-criteria evaluation under IBUI environment. Section 6 concludes and remarks this work.
Preparations
This section reviews, rephrases or modifies some necessary definitions for this work.
Without loss of generality, the domain of discourse concerned in this work is closed interval within unit interval [a, b] ⊆ [0, 1], all of which are denoted by
For a finite vector of closed intervals, to avoid clutter we take the following convenient denotations when no confusion arising:
We consider the interval lattice
The weighted arithmetic mean and its modification for intervals are encapsulated below.
A function WA
A function
The definition of BUI weighted arithmetic mean and its related reasonability are presented in [5], and we formally rephrase the definition in the following definition.
Though we have briefly introduced the concept of IBUI in Introduction, its strict definition is formally stated as follows.
When [a, b] = [a, a], IBUI ([a, a] , c) then degenerates into BUI (a, c). Besides, in order to concisely write a vector of IBUI granules we adopt the following denotations as in the beginning of the preceding section. When there is no confusion arising we adopt the expression
Recall that, for BUI granules (a, c), a usually used transformation for them to be converted into intervals are defined by [23]
It is direct to check that if T (a, c) = [u, v] then u - v = 1 - c, the uncertainty degree of a.
Consider bi-polar optimism-pessimism preference degree α ∈ [0, 1] of which larger values represent more optimism and smaller values represent more pessimism. Often a bi-polar optimism-pessimism preference degree α ∈ [-1, 1] is also used in decision making, of which 1 represents the most optimism and -1 represents the most pessimism. Since the well-known Rademacher bijective mapping Rad : [0, 1] → [-1, 1] allows to map between [0, 1] and [-1, 1], then we may only consider the case of α ∈ [0, 1]. For the case where α ∈ [- ∞ , ∞], we may similarly use the so-called two point compactification to allow the mapping between [0, 1] and [- ∞ , ∞].
Subsequently, a preference mapping from intervals to real numbers
With the same principle, based on (5) a preference mapping from BUI granules to real numbers
By some interchangeable usages of the above (6) and (7) with preferences α and β, respectively, we next present some formulations to conveniently model the preference involved situation where both preferences α and β can be used in the IBUI environment.
or by
We next show the equivalence between (8) and (9).
We may also have only one preference (i.e., either with preference α for interval or with β for BUI) and define the following separated definitions, which presents more flexibility for decision makers in practices.
Similarly, the preference transformation with preference β for BUI
Rule-based decisions are often used in decision making and some other related areas [24–26]. The basic rule-based decisions involve If-Then structure. This structure can have numerous flexible extension rules which are particularly suitable to the defining of decision rules and procedures in a wide range of BUI based decision making problems. In IBUI decision environment, we may designs some reasonable rules as the intelligent decision aid for practitioners to make evaluations and decisions.
First, we present some rules as decision thresholds to judge whether some values can be qualified. Given any IBUI granule If [a, b] nleqInt [u, v] and c ≥ y, then ([a, b] , c) is qualified. If a ≥ u and c ≥ y, then ([a, b] , c) is qualified. If b ≥ u and c ≥ y, then ([a, b] , c) is qualified. If 0.5 (a + b) ≥ u and ac ≥ y, then ([a, b] , c) is qualified. If b - a ≤ x and c ≥ y, then ([a, b] , c) is qualified. If 0.5 (a + b) ≥ u and (1 - b + a) ∘ c ≥ y, then ([a, b] , c) is qualified. “∘” is a given semi-copula, i.e., it is non-decreasing binary aggregation operator [17] and satisfies x ∘ 1 =1 ∘ x = x for any x ∈ [0, 1].
We can also take decisions based on categorical variable set If a ≥ u = 0.7 and c ≥ y = 0.7, then ([a, b] , c) is “3 excellent”;
else if b < v = 0.5 and c ≥ y = 0.8, then ([a, b] , c) is “1 not qualified”;
else if 0.5 (a + b) ≥ u = 0.6 and c ≥ y = 0.5, then ([a, b] , c) is “2 qualified”;
else ([a, b] , c) is “0 unknown”.
Second, for two IBUI granules If [a1, b1] ≤
Int
[a2, b2] and min {c1, c2} ≥ y = 0.5, then [a2, b2] is better than [a1, b1];
else if a1 + b1 ≤ a2 + b2 and min {c1, c2} ≥ y = 0.7, then [a2, b2] is better than [a1, b1];
else the two IBUI granules cannot be compared with current information.
The comparison can involve bi-polar optimism-pessimism preference for both IBUI granules. For example, If φ (([a1, b1] , c1) , α, β) < φ (([a2, b2] , c2) , α, β), then [a2, b2] is better than [a1, b1].
We next discuss the inherent uncertainties of IBUI granules. Given any IBUI granule ([a, b] , c), it involves two types of uncertainties rather than only one type as in BUI granule (a, c). This is because interval [a, b] also has its innate uncertainty which usually can be expressed by the quantity b - a (or, its innate certainty is 1 - b + a). Therefore, in order to compare the quantities of uncertainty of two or more IBUI granules, we should simultaneously consider the two types of uncertainties. One usually considered method to handle such problem is to use binary aggregation operators. For example, we may use a certain semi-copula ∘ or t-norm t : [0, 1] n → [0, 1] to aggregate the two parts of certainty in one IBUI granule, i.e., 1 - b + a and c, to obtain a comprehensive certainty (1 - b + a) ∘ c or t (1 - b + a, c).
Another plausible method to derive certainty/uncertainty extent is by considering the Lebesgue measure of all the points that can or cannot be the exact concerned value. For example, for an interval [a, b] which contains the exact concerned value, it can be concluded that all the points in [0, 1] ∖ [a, b] = [0, a) ∪ (b, 1] are impossible to be the exact value. Hence, for IBUI granule ([a, b] , c), since applying (5) to transform a BUI granule into interval is reasonable, then using (5) twice to obtain two corresponding intervals T (a, c) and T (b, c), the points belonging to T (a, c) ∪ T (b, c) = [ca, 1 - c + ca] ∪ [cb, 1 - c + cb] = [ca, 1 - c + cb] are possible to be the exact concerned value. Therefore, we may define the certainty of ([a, b] , c) to be 1 - (1 - c + cb) + ca = c (1 - b + a), which is plausible and conforms to intuition in both reasonability and mathematical consistency.
Decision makers can order or prioritize a vector of IBUI granules according to the above discussed certainty measurement via some preference vectors, e.g., directly from some given OWA weight vectors [27] or generated by using RIM quantifiers [28]. For example, for an IBUI vector ([
An alternative method to generate a similar preference vector is to directly derive from the IBUI vector itself. For example, we may form a weight vector
With the obtained preference vector
IBUI in multi-source multi-criteria evaluation
In this section, we show some decision making procedures of IBUI with its operations in multi-source multi-criteria (MSMC) evaluation. Though with sufficient reasonability, the following procedures still have prescriptive sense and hence may be modified in practices according to different decisional backgrounds and situations.
The whole IBUI-MSMC evaluation procedures include several steps and is listed sequentially as follows.
Step 1 Determine m information sources
Step 2 Determine n criteria
Step 3 For each information source and each criterion, obtain one individual evaluation which is IBUI granule
Step 4 For each j ∈ {1, . . . , m}, perform IBUIWAM IBWA
Step 5 If for all information sources S
j
(j ∈ {1, . . . , m}), we have
Step 6 Since the original weight vector
Step 7 With the obtained IBUI vector ([
Step 8 With the obtained final IBUI ([a, b] , c) = IBWA
The comprehensive evaluation on university teachers is important and with some difficulties. This is because university teachers in general are also scholars, and therefore acceptable academic evaluation should also be made for the teachers. Since many evaluation criteria are based on subjective evaluation, then it is suitable to invite several different experts to make individual subjective evaluations. IBUI can be quite suitable to be applied in subjectivity involved evaluations for its flexibility and simplicity in modeling, measuring, expressing and aggregating quantifiable uncertainties.
As an illustrative case for the foregoing introduced IBUI-MSMC evaluation procedures, we propose to use the following single layer criteria system for comprehensively evaluating university teachers. The set of criteria includes the following four aspects.
C1: Teaching attitude and method
C2: Teaching effect and result
C3: Academic attitude and morality
C4: Scientific study and research
The other steps of the detailed numerical example are illustrated as follows.
Step 1 Find 3 information sources
Step 2 Set 4 criteria
Step 3 For each expert and each criterion, obtain one individual evaluation which is IBUI granule
Step 4 For each j ∈ {1, 2, 3}, perform IBUIWAM IBWA
Step 5 For all information sources S
j
(j ∈ {1, 2, 3}), we adopt product “·” as the semi-copula and observe
Step 6 We take a parameter λ = 0.5 (indicating we equally consider
Step 7 With the obtained IBUI vector ([
Step 8 Suppose we preset a threshold to be an IBUI ([0.5, 0.8] , 0.65), and predetermine that if the comprehensive resulting IBUI granule ([a, b] , c) satisfies [0.5, 0.8] ≤ Int [a, b] and 0.65 ≤ c, then the teacher is qualified. Clearly, with the obtained resulting IBUI ([0.594, 0.868] , 0.727) we make the evaluation that the teacher is qualified. In practice, university managements can make and flexibly adjust some suitable thresholds for comparison and obtain different evaluation results according to varying and complex situations.
Conclusions
The concept of BUI has proved very useful and flexible in numerous applications and attracted ever-increasingly more attentions and interests from researchers and practitioners. The article further extended BUI into IBUI, and IBUI granule ([a, b] , c) is a good generalization of BUI granule (a, c).
Some operations, aggregations and transformations of IBUI were also analyzed. The weighted arithmetic mean for IBUI inherits the corresponding definitions of BUI and still proves reasonable. The preference transformation with preference α for interval and β for IBUI was elaborately analyzed and some of its flexible variations are also discussed. The results can help managements make decision and evaluation with bi-polar optimism-pessimism preferences involved.
We showed IBUI can be well applied in rule-based decisions making and proposed several different IBUI based decision rules which can be further extended or modified according to different decisional scenarios. Some methods to derive comprehensive certainty of IBUI and their reasonability were also discussed.
A set of decision procedures and a numerical example for multi-source multi-criteria evaluation under IBUI environment were also proposed, indicating the good potential of IBUI to be applied in more practices. Some parts of the results in this work also have theoretical values in aggregation theory and information fusion.
As intervals are themselves with uncertainties [29], in decision making they will significantly affect the decision processes and results. In mathematics, BUI granules actually can also serve as a perfect generalization of intervals and thus IBUI can be a generalization of twin intervals, which will be further strictly analyzed in our later study. Moreover, as we analyzed in Section 4, in practice BUI and IBUI can provide more decision making rules and methods than interval and twin intervals, and they may derive more practical, effective and flexible decision making methods and theories from researchers in a wide range of areas.
Footnotes
Acknowledgment
This work is supported by Grant: VEGA 1/0006/19 and Grant: APVV-0052-18.
