Abstract
Census data plays an important role in informing a Government’s policies and priorities. In the Republic of Ireland census data from 1986 onwards is available online. For this article variables pertaining to work, specifically the non-labour force variable, were analysed. While we found a linear decline from 47.16% in 1986 to 38.14% in 2011 this had not occurred in all categories of non-labour force work; the “unable to work due to permanent sickness or disability” group increased from 6.84% to 11.41%, a 66% rise. This occurred in spite of legislation and services being put in place to assist people with disabilities to re-enter the workforce. US data also indicates a rise in the number of people with disabilities in the non-labour force work category. Why this is occurring is a complex question, determining if similar trends are evident within census data in other countries would assist in answering it.
As you are aware census data is widely regarded as providing important information on societal and economic developments. Once collated this data is now often stored and made available online. This provides access to vast amounts of population level data. The potential uses are immeasurable particularly as it is often feasible to compare data across a number of decades and societal shifts.
In the Republic of Ireland data is now available from the six censuses conducted over 25 years between 1986 and 2011 [1]. With regards to work and productivity a binary variable of >15 y in the labour force/>15 y not in the labour force is reported. Additionally a more detailed eight level categorical variable is provided for all sexes and for men and women separately.
On examining this data we determined that during these 25 years the proportion of the >15 not in the labour force population declined in a linear fashion from 47.16% to 38.14% [1]. However, not all categories within this group decreased. For example people “unable to work due to permanent sickness or disability” increased from 6.84% to 11.41% in this period. This represents a 66% increase. Numerically the increase was in the magnitude of 75,785 people. Conversely in the same period the proportion of “people looking after the home/family”, another category in the non-labour force group, decreased from 55.11% to 24.70%; a 55% reduction.
To us it is clear that for one of these groups the data accurately reflects changes within Irish society which many will view as positive. For the other group there is a linear trend in the opposite direction which many advocates for people with disabilities would be concerned about but probably not shocked by. Ironically, this increase has occurred despite the numerous legislative changes, publication of national polices, and employment service modifications introduced over these 25 years which aimed to promote access to employment for people with disabilities. It is hard to conclude anything other than these have thus far failed.
Data from the American Community Survey (ACS) is available online for 2009, 2011 and 2015 [2–4]. Analysis indicates stability with regard to the proportion of people with disabilities in the non-labour force population with a rate of 26.07% in 2009 and 26.33% in 2015. However there is an upward trend in the size and proportion of the non– labour force group. In 2009 it was 22.00%, in 2011 it had risen to 23.30% and by 2015 it had further increased to 23.47%. This equates to an increase of 4,505,908 people of whom 1,293,948 are people with a disability. Given this has occurred over only six years should the trend continue its magnitude will reach very concerning levels in the future.
Census data often influences Government priorities, the political agenda and policy development. However some data may be overlooked if not highlighted. Given the interesting findings unearthed by the mining of Irish census data and examining some US data we would advocate for examination of census data in all countries and were possible findings disseminated.