Criminal Justice and Behavior

Bail reform is sweeping the nation and many jurisdictions are looking to pretrial risk assessment as one potential strategy to support these efforts. This article summarizes the findings of a systematic review of research examining the predictive validity of pretrial risk assessments. We reviewed 11 studies (13 publications) examining the predictive validity of six pretrial risk assessment instruments reported in the gray and peer-reviewed literature as of December, 2018. Findings typically show good to excellent predictive validity. Differences in predictive validity for men and women were mixed and small. When it could be examined, predictive validity was generally comparable across racial/ethnic subgroups; however, three comparisons revealed notably lower, albeit still fair to good, predictive validity for defendants of color than White defendants. Findings suggest that pretrial risk assessments predict pretrial outcomes with acceptable accuracy, but also emphasize the need for continued investigation of predictive validity across gender and racial/ethnic subgroups.

This study examined the nature and impacts of the professional override on the Level of Service Inventory–Ontario Revision (LSI-OR), using a large archival database of 40,539 individuals’ information. Research questions focused on the predictive validity of various LSI-OR risk metrics, including total risk/need scores, initial risk categories, and adjusted risk categories, for various types of recidivism; how professional overrides were used; whether they were used more with some groups than others; and whether their impacts varied depending on recidivism type. Overrides were applied in 15.4% of cases, most often (94.1%) to increase risk levels. Override use varied based on gender, race, and the nature of index offenses. Based on receiver operating characteristic analyses, the results generally indicated that adjusted risk levels (incorporating professional overrides) demonstrated inferior predictive validity relative to unadjusted metrics. The results suggest a need for increased caution and consistency in the application of professional overrides.

Because much of our understanding of criminogenic thinking (antisocial cognitions) has been based on male justice populations, questions remain about the applicability of this construct to justice-involved women. Based on an item-level analysis of 216 justice-involved clients, results of this pilot study suggest that criminogenic thinking in women is relevant, and both overlaps with and diverges from that of men. In fact, the predictive accuracy for rearrest attained with a gender-responsive model developed for women exceeded that of the corresponding model developed for men (area under the curve [AUC] = .86 vs. AUC = .67). We recommend the creation of parsimonious criminogenic thinking instruments that optimize predictive criterion validity. Gender-responsive scales that capture the gender-specificity that exists in criminogenic thinking patterns can assist in (a) optimizing the prediction of reoffending and (b) identifying essential constellations of treatment targets among forensic populations.

General criminal attitudes have been well established as a dynamic risk factor for the origin, maintenance, and continuation of criminal behavior. Guided by the risk–need–responsivity (RNR) framework, this study examined self-reported change on a measure of general criminal attitudes in a sample of incarcerated men who participated in a sexual offense treatment program. Participants were administered the original version of the Criminal Sentiments Scale (CSS) and other measures at pretreatment and posttreatment and followed up in the community an average 14 years post-release. The results demonstrated that CSS total and subscale scores predicted general and violent recidivism, showed convergence with actuarial measures of criminogenic need, and had clinically meaningful associations with responsivity considerations. Pre–post changes on the CSS were associated with decreased general and violent recidivism controlling for pretreatment score and baseline risk. Implications for forensic assessment and correctional intervention are discussed.

This study examined the psychometric, predictive, and dynamic properties of intimate partner violence (IPV) risk. The sample consisted of 88 men attending an outpatient IPV correctional program. The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) was rated at pretreatment using participant files. The Spousal Assault Risk Assessment–Version 3 (SARA-V3) was rated at pre- and posttreatment using collateral information (e.g., facilitator ratings, files) and participant questionnaires. Recidivism data were obtained from a court database with an average follow-up of 15 months. The SARA-V3 and ODARA demonstrated strong convergent validity and predicted violent and general recidivism with moderate to high accuracy; SARA-V3 posttreatment ratings incremented the ODARA in the prediction of recidivism, yet not vice versa. Noncompleters were higher risk and had higher recidivism rates. Changes on the SARA-V3’s Perpetrator Risk Factors domain were significantly associated with decreased recidivism in bivariate analyses and some change associations remained significant with stringent controls for risk. Implications for risk assessment/management, service planning, and future research are discussed.

Even though risk assessments are routinely conducted in the criminal justice system to inform sentencing and case management, their cross-cultural applicability remains contested. This study investigated the generalizability of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), a widely implemented youth forensic risk assessment instrument, using an Item Response Theory framework, in a sample of Indigenous (n = 205) and non-Indigenous (n = 193) youth. Differential item functioning analyses demonstrated similar discrimination across groups. However, despite similar latent risk levels, non-Indigenous youth were more likely to have items from the Education domain endorsed, while Indigenous youth were more likely to have items from the Substance Abuse domain endorsed. Predictive accuracy analyses indicated that total YLS/CMI scores significantly predicted general recidivism (without administration of justice convictions) for non-Indigenous youth, but not for Indigenous youth. There is an urgent need for more research investigating the applicability of the YLS/CMI to diverse groups of Indigenous youth.

The Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) is one of the most frequently used tools to assess criminogenic risk–need in justice-involved individuals. Meta-analytic research demonstrates strong predictive accuracy for various recidivism outcomes. In this exploratory study, we applied machine learning (ML) algorithms (decision trees, random forests, and support vector machines) to a data set with nearly 100,000 LS/CMI administrations to provincial corrections clientele in Ontario, Canada, and approximately 3 years follow-up. The overall accuracies and areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) were comparable, although ML outperformed LS/CMI in terms of predictive accuracy for the middle scores where it is hardest to predict the recidivism outcome. Moreover, ML improved the AUCs for individual scores to near 0.60, from 0.50 for the LS/CMI, indicating that ML also improves the ability to rank individuals according to their probability of recidivating. Potential considerations, applications, and future directions are discussed.

The Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model deems criminal attitudes a high-priority criminogenic target for both genders while self-esteem is considered noncriminogenic, hence low priority. In contrast, self-esteem is afforded greater priority among gender-responsive researchers, while the construct of criminal attitudes is afforded lesser priority. We examined whether self-esteem and gender moderated the relationship between criminal attitudes and recidivism among 300 justice-involved youth (200 males, 100 females). Contrary to the hypothesis, high self-esteem (≥72.15th percentile) magnified the relationship between criminal attitudes (Pride in Delinquency Scale) and recidivism in females only; self-esteem levels evidenced no impact on the relationship between criminal attitudes and recidivism among males. Results suggest that prioritizing self-esteem as a treatment target among justice-involved female youth without simultaneously considering whether or not pride in criminal conduct is also present may inadvertently increase reoffending. Implications for exploring whether high self-esteem may in reality represent falsely inflated self-esteem are discussed.

The Intake Assessment (IA) process in the Canadian federal correctional system results in an individualized treatment and supervision plan throughout the sentence. Two components, Static and Dynamic Factors Assessment, were examined to determine whether a streamlined version could be tailored for a hand-held mobile application and remain reliable and valid for correctional planning purposes. An Information Management System database was used to identify all first releases from federal custody over a 2-year period who had IA data available (N = 6,946). Analyses revealed statistically significant relationships and AUCs (area under receiver operating characteristic curves) for both the Static and Dynamic Factors components of IA with respect to reincarceration. Additional analyses revealed that the strongest predictors for returns to federal custody were criminal history as a youth or adult, substance misuse, and unemployment. A combined Static and Dynamic Factors score also yielded a simplified, robust, and incremental predictor of reincarceration for both men and women.