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Widespread availability of rich educational databases facilitates the use of conditioning strategies to estimate causal effects with nonexperimental data. With dozens, hundreds, or more potential predictors, variable selection can be useful for practical reasons related to communicating results and for statistical reasons related to improving the efficiency of estimators. Background knowledge should take precedence in deciding which variables to retain. However, with many potential predictors, theory may be weak, such that functional form relationships are likely to be unknown. In this article, I propose a nonparametric method for data-driven variable selection based on permutation testing with conditional random forest variable importance. The algorithm automatically handles nonlinear relationships and interactions in its naive implementation. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulation studies and a case study with Early Childhood Longitudinal Study–K data, I find that the method performs well across a variety of scenarios where other methods fail.

26:T55c,

Conventionally, regression discontinuity analysis contrasts a univariate regression’s limits as its independent variable, R, approaches a cut point, c, from either side. Alternative methods target the average treatment effect in a small region around c, at the cost of an assumption that treatment assignment, I R < c , is ignorable vis-à-vis potential outcomes. Instead, the method presented in this article assumes “residual ignorability,” ignorability of treatment assignment vis-à-vis detrended potential outcomes. Detrending is effected not with ordinary least squares but with MM estimation, following a distinct phase of sample decontamination. The method’s inferences acknowledge uncertainty in both of these adjustments, despite its applicability whether R is discrete or continuous; it is uniquely robust to leading validity threats facing regression discontinuity designs.

27:T495,

With the widespread use of computers in modern assessment, online calibration has become increasingly popular as a way of replenishing an item pool. The present study discusses online calibration strategies for a joint model of responses and response times. The study