Climate and vegetation change during the twentieth century in the lower Peace River district,northern Alberta,Canada

A 96-yr climate record (1908—2004), historical descriptions, multiyear (1950, 1964, 1978, 1994) lake-surface area measurements, and 1950 and 2004 physiognomically based vegetation maps were compiled to assess vegetation change in the Fox Lake area (4248 ha) within the lower Peace River district of northern Alberta. A climatic warming trend (r = 0.615, P < 0.001; 0.35°C/decade) was evident during the twentieth century, with peak precipitation occurring from 1970 to 1990. Five major wet—dry cycles, based on net water balance values (precipitation minus potential evaporation), were evident with peaks occurring at about 17(±3) year intervals. Each cycle became slightly less arid than the previous until the mid-1990s. Deciduous forests dominated upland sites in 2004, whereas deciduous shrub and juvenile tree stands comprised 78% in 1950. Total wetland area remained relatively constant between 1950 and 2004, but less meadow and more standing water were present in 2004. Lake-surface area changes suggested that wetlands were recharged by precipitation rather than floodwaters from the nearby Peace River. Low water availability and historical descriptions suggest grassland-dominated parkland-like vegetation occurred in the study area during the early part of the twentieth century, with upland shrubs replacing grasslands by 1950. Increased atmospheric water availability rather than cessation of aboriginal burning or natural fires was considered responsible for increased forest abundance after 1945. Greater aridity in response to future global warming could reduce the abundance of forests in the lower Peace River district, and shift the regional climate from a boreal to a grassland-dominated parkland climatic regime.