Pathways to Success,or Unfulfilled Dreams? An Examination of Pathway-Based Disparities in Graduation Rates

Abstract

Research on pathway-based disparities in postsecondary education (PSE) has mounted in recent decades, indicating that nonlinear pathways may hamper students’ academic success. In Ontario, Canada, research on this topic remains largely inconclusive given the historically low quality of available data sources, with researchers commonly relying on small and unrepresentative samples, short observation windows, and a restricted range of academic and demographic controls. Through this study we reexamine pathway-based disparities in graduation rates using a custom administrative linkage that constitutes the best available evidence to study this topic in the province of Ontario. Our statistical analyses confirm the existence of a statistically significant relationship between the PSE pathways traveled by students and their odds of graduation, particularly among community college-to-university transfers. We conclude by considering the implications of these findings for both policymakers and future research in this space in Ontario and comparable jurisdictions.

Keywords

pathways transfer graduation regression

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Anglin

L. W.

Davis

J. W.

Mooradian

P. W.

(1995). Do transfer students graduate? A comparative study of transfer students and native university students. Community College Journal of Research and Practice, 19(4), 321–330. https://doi.org/10.1080/1066892950190404

Bell

(1998). College transfer students: A Canadian case. Community College Journal of Research and Practice, 22(1), 21–37. https://doi.org/10.1080/1066892980220103

Boileau, N. (2023). Why students transfer: Early findings from a longitudinal study of transfer students in Ontario. Ontario Council on Articulation and Transfer (ONCAT).

Brint

Karabel

(1991). The Diverted Dream: Community colleges and the promise of educational opportunity in America, 1900–1985. Oxford University Press.

Clark

B. R.

(1960). The “cooling-out” function in higher education. American Journal of Sociology, 65(6), 569–576. https://doi.org/10.1086/222787

Davies, S. & Pizarro Milian, R. (2020). Transfer student outcomes at the University of Toronto: GPA, access to STEM, and graduation. Ontario Council on Articulation and Transfer (ONCAT).

Dietrich

C. C.

Lichtenberger

E. J.

(2015). Using propensity score matching to test the community college penalty assumption. The Review of Higher Education, 38(2), 193–219. https://doi.org/10.1353/rhe.2015.0013

Dougherty

(1987). The effects of community colleges: Aid or hindrance to socioeconomic attainment? Sociology of Education, 60(2), 86. https://doi.org/10.2307/2112584

Drewes

Maki

Lew

Willson

Stringham

(2012). An analysis of CAAT transfer students’ academic performance at Trent University. ONCAT.

10.

Finnie

Dubois

Miyairi

(2020). Schooling and labour market outcomes of Ontario transfer students: Evidence from PSE-tax linked data. ONCAT.

11.

Finnie

Dubois

Miyairi

(2021). Post-Graduation Earnings Outcomes of Ontario Transfer Students. https://oncat.ca/sites/default/files/media-files/epri-oncat_2021–03–15_2_0.pdf

12.

Gerhardt

Masakure

(2016). Postsecondary student mobility from college to university: Academic performance of students. Canadian Journal of Higher Education, 46(2), 78–91.

13.

Handel

(2011). Increasing higher education access and success using new pathways to the baccalaureate: The emergence of a transfer-affirming culture. https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/rd/StephenJHandel-IncreasingHigherEducationAccess.pdf

14.

Hango

de Broucker

(2007). Education-to-Labour Market Pathways of Canadian Youth: Findings from the Youth in Transition Survey. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/81–595-m/81–595-m2007054-eng.pdf?st=YzhTaPOC

15.

Ortagus

J. C.

Kramer

D. A.

(2018). The community college pathway: An analysis of the costs associated with enrolling initially at a community college before transferring to a 4-year institution. Higher Education Policy, 31(3), 359–380. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41307-017-0063-7

16.

James

Turner

(2017). Towards Race Equity in Education: The Schooling of Black Students in the Greater Toronto Area. https://youthrex.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Towards-Race-Equity-in-Education-April-20172.pdf

17.

Karabel

(1972). Community colleges and social stratification. Harvard Educational Review, 42(4), 521–562. https://doi.org/10.17763/haer.42.4.46m2826725l7k642

18.

LaViolet

Wyner

(2020). Beyond Articulation Agreements: Five Student-Centered Principles to Improve Transfer. https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED610361.pdf

19.

Lee

V. E.

Frank

K. A.

(1990). Students’ characteristics that facilitate the transfer from two-year to four-year colleges. Sociology of Education, 63(3), 178. https://doi.org/10.2307/2112836

20.

(2009). They need help: Transfer students from four-year to four-year institutions. The Review of Higher Education, 33(2), 207–238. https://doi.org/10.1353/rhe.0.0131

21.

Lichtenberger

Dietrich

(2017). The community college penalty? Examining the bachelor’s completion rates of community college transfer students as a function of time. Community College Review, 45(1), 3–32. https://doi.org/10.1177/0091552116674550

22.

Long

B. T.

Kurlaender

(2009). Do community colleges provide a viable pathway to a baccalaureate degree? Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 31(1), 30–53. https://doi.org/10.3102/0162373708327756

23.

Long

Freese

(2006). Regression models for categorical dependent variables using Stata. Stata Press.

24.

Martin

Godonoga

(2022). Achieving SDG4: Flexible Learning Pathways in Higher Education. https://whec2022.net/resources/IIEP FLP International Survey Report_Final_V2.pdf.

25.

Martinello

Stewart

(2015). Transfers from college to one Ontario University: A four-year outcome study. Canadian Journal of Higher Education, 45(1), 18–36. https://doi.org/10.47678/cjhe.v45i1.183882

26.

McCloy

Baker

Williams

Decock

(2017). Seneca College’s Degree and Credit Transfer Office: A Profile of users and an examination of outcomes. https://www.senecacollege.ca/mobilityresearch/reports/SenecaColleges_Degree_and_Credit_Transfer_Office_A_Profile_of_Users_and_an_Examination_of_Outcomes.pdf

27.

Melguizo

Kienzl

G. S.

Alfonso

(2011). Comparing the educational attainment of community college transfer students and four-year college rising juniors using propensity score matching methods. The Journal of Higher Education, 82(3), 265–291. https://doi.org/10.1080/00221546.2011.11777202

28.

Monaghan

D. B.

Attewell

(2015). The community college route to the bachelor’s degree. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 37(1), 70–91. https://doi.org/10.3102/0162373714521865

29.

Parekh

Brown

R. S.

(2020). Naming and claiming: The tension between institutional and self-identification of disability. Canadian Journal of Disability Studies, 9(5), 347–379.

30.

Pizarro Milian

(2022). Situating the UCAS™ dataset within the Ontario PSE data landscape. Ontario Council on Articulation and Transfer (ONCAT).

31.

Pizarro Milian

Zarifa

(2021). Quantitative transfer research in Canada: Past achievements, current challenges, and future directions. Canadian Journal of Higher Education, 51(3), 82–99.

32.

Pizarro Milian

Zarifa

Missaghian

(2023a). Just passing through? Exploring regional disparities in vertical transfer intent in Ontario, Canada. Higher Education Policy. Online ahead of print.

33.

Pizarro Milian, R., Reynolds, D.,* Einmann, T.*, Walters, D., Brown, R. & Parehk. (2023b). Is there a transfer “Penalty” in Ontario PSE? Insights from an administrative Linkage. Unpublished Manuscript.

34.

Pizarro Milian, R., Peters, J., & Wijesingha, R. (2023c). Ethno-racial disparities in vertical transfer intent among Ontario college applicants: An analysis of the University/College Applicant Study. Ontario Council on Articulation and Transfer.

35.

Robson

(2021). An essay on the challenges of doing education research in Canada. Journal of Applied Social Science, 15(2), 183–196. https://doi.org/10.1177/19367244211003471

36.

Smith

Decock

Lin

Sudhu

McCloy

(2016). Transfer Pathways in Postsecondary Education: York University and Seneca College as a Case Study. https://heqco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Transfer-Pathways-in-PSE-ENG.pdf

37.

Stewart

Martinello

(2012). Are transfer students different? An examination of first-year grades and course withdrawals. Canadian Journal of Higher Education, 42(1), 25–42. https://doi.org/10.47678/cjhe.v42i1.182448

38.

The Ohio Foundation of Independent Colleges (2022). Accessible, Affordable, and Flexible Higher Education for Transfer Students in Ohio. https://www.ofic.org/news/transfer-pathways-signing-ceremony-event-recap

39.

Wall

(2019). Persistence and representation of women in STEM programs. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/75-006-x/2019001/article/00006-eng.pdf?st=zfQc7akR

40.

Witteveen

Attewell

(2020). The vertical transfer penalty among bachelor’s degree graduates. The Journal of Higher Education, 91(1), 32–57. https://doi.org/10.1080/00221546.2019.1609323

41.

Jaggars

S. S.

Fletcher

Fink

J. E.

(2018). Are community college transfer students “a Good Bet” for 4-year admissions? Comparing academic and labor-market outcomes between transfer and native 4-year college students. The Journal of Higher Education, 89(4), 478–502. https://doi.org/10.1080/00221546.2018.1434280

42.

Zarifa

Sano

Beall

(2022). Comparing Access to STEM Fields, Graduation Rates and Timely Completion among Northern and Southern Ontario Students.

43.

Zarifa

Sano

Hillier

(2020). Transfer pathways among Ontario colleges and universities: Northern and southern differences in students who transfer. Ontario Council on Articulation and Transfer (ONCAT).