Abstract
In this paper, an integrated algorithm has been proposed for ranking contingencies in the deregulated network. The network security and economical indices should be considered when dealing with market environment. Locational marginal price and congestion cost indices are the best signals to completely illustrate the market operation. In this paper, voltage violation, line flow violation, locational marginal price and congestion cost indices have been simultaneously considered to rank the contingencies. This algorithm uses neural networks method to estimate the power system parameters (locational marginal price, bus voltage magnitudes and angles). The efficiency of each of contingencies was calculated using data envelopment analysis and this index was employed for ranking. The efficiency of each contingency shows its severity and indicates that it affects network security and economic indices concurrently. Considering the proposed formulation for data envelopment analysis, the efficiency of a contingency will be higher if the calculated indices for that contingency are higher. More efficiency leads to increased severity of the contingency and shows that the contingency has concurrently more affected network security and economic indices. The proposed algorithm has been tested on IEEE 30-bus test power system. Simulation results show the high efficiency of the algorithm.
Keywords
Introduction
Maintaining power system security in the deregulated and unbundled electricity market is a challenging task for power system engineers [6]. The main goal of contingency ranking is to find related contingencies including accurate contingencies and ranking them according to their severity. Various methods have been developed for estimating the severity of contingency. In [12], a new composite sensitivity analysis framework has been proposed for voltage contingency evaluation and ranking. The proposed formulation considers the voltage stability margin/instability depth of the entire power system as the severity index for voltage contingencies. The proposed method is tested on the New Zealand test system and Iran’s transmission network. Obtained results indicated that the proposed method can highly reduce the computation time. In [13], a method capable of selecting contingencies that lead to voltage insecurities has been proposed. The contingencies are ordered according to their effect on the system operating state. In [2], a new power sensitivity ranking algorithm for voltage collapse contingency ranking has been proposed. This new ranking algorithm considered the future variations in generation dispatch and the short term load demand forecast. In [18], a fast and precise contingency ranking method for the power systems security analysis is presented. The method proposed in [18], considered both the apparent power overloading and voltage violations, simultaneously. In [5], a method as a combinatorial optimization problem and solved by genetic algorithms is proposed to efficiently perform the selection of multiple contingencies. In [17], a contingency assessment method that takes into account the nature of probability distribution of power system operating conditions to get realistic severity and risk estimations of contingencies is proposed. The developed contingency assessment methods are applied on SEO region of French EHV system to estimate severities and rank the selected contingencies based on risk of voltage collapse. In [15], an alternative methodology is proposed for static contingency analyses that only use continuation methods and thus provides an accurate determination of the loading margin. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology have been investigated on IEEE test systems (14, 57 and 118 buses) and compared with the continuation power flow.
In recent years, fuzzy system applications and artificial intelligence methodology have received increasing attentions in various areas of power systems. In [4], a novel approach has been proposed for contingency ranking based on static security assessment. The proposed method is applied to IEEE 30-bus power system and different cased were examined. In [6], a hybrid fuzzy-neural network is developed for ranking of critical contingency using pre fault load information at selected buses. A multi-output fuzzy-neural network has also been used for contingency ranking. The membership values of the loads have been categorized in lingual groups of low, middle and high and considered as the input for neural network. A fuzzy composite performance index (FCPI), formulated by combining (i) voltage violations, (ii) line flow violations and (iii) voltage stability margin is proposed for composite ranking of contingencies. The performance of the proposed method has been tested on a 69-bus practical Indian power system. In [14], an approach based on radial basis function neural network is developed to estimate bus voltage magnitudes and angles for normal operation as well as for all possible single-line contingencies. This methodology is extended for contingency ranking. The effectiveness of proposed method is demonstrated on two IEEE test power systems. In [7], a supervised learning approach is proposed to fast and accurate power system security assessment and contingency analysis. In [7], feed-forward artificial neural network is employed that uses pattern recognition methodology for security assessment and contingency analysis. In [11], an integrated algorithm was proposed to measure the efficiency of electric companies using data envelopment analysis (DEA) combined with fuzzy c-means clustering (FCM) and principle component analysis (PCA). In [10], a multi-objective congestion management approach has been proposed to minimize transmission congestion management cost and emission. In [10], in the a posteriori stage, a solution is selected by considering power system security. For this purpose, two strategies were proposed: in the first strategy, based on a proposed managerial vision, a combination of data envelopment analysis introduced by Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (CCR-DEA), cross-efficiency technique and robustness analysis is deployed to select the most robust super-efficient solution. In the second strategy, first the effective scenarios due to outage of transmission components are identified using CCR-DEA and next, each scenarios’ degree of severity (DOS) is obtained using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In [9], a new approach for evaluation of power generation plans was proposed. Different congestion management attributes were considered besides transmission congestion management cost. Also, effective scenarios due to the outage of transmission components have been considered besides the normal operating case. In order to obtain the effective scenarios, an approach based on conjunctive method and a pessimistic approach based on CCR-DEA has been proposed.
In this paper, in order to rank the contingencies, network security indices (voltage violation and line flow violation indices) and economic indices (locational marginal price and congestion cost indices) have been considered simultaneously. This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the performance indices for contingency ranking. Section 3 presents the proposed algorithm. Section 4 details the application and presents the obtained results. Finally, concluding remarks are made in Section 5.
Performance indices for contingency ranking
By experience, it is known that the ranking results highly depend on the operating index definition used to measure the severity of a contingency. Also, the choice of parameters in operating index definition depends on the usage of ranking results. As an example, if the ranking results are to be used for voltage stability issue, it is necessary to employ bus voltage and voltage stability margin parameters in index definition. In power transmission network management and planning, the line flow parameter is generally used. While bus voltage angles and critical clearing time are used to define index in transient stability problem. Voltage violations [4, 14] and line flow violations [4, 16] have been proposed as indicators of network security. The network security and economical indices should be considered when dealing with market environment. Locational marginal price (LMP) is the best economical signal to completely illustrate the market operation. Using LMP, the power consumers and producers experience real energy price in their location, and hence, LMP plays a significant role in system management.
In this paper, in order to evaluate the severity of important contingencies in the deregulated network, the network security and economic indices are considered together. The definitions related to these indices are as follows.
Voltage violation index
The most common index for voltage violation is [14]:
Where and are over-voltage and under-voltage limits, respectively. is a user specified for bus j and Vj is post-contingency voltage magnitude for bus j. Also, wj is a weighting factor for bus j, nb is the number of load buses and m is a positive integer to reduce masking effects.
The most common operating index for line flow violation is [14]:
Where Si and Sni denote the apparent load and apparent power overload limits of line i, respectively. wi is a weighting factor for line i, and nl is the total number of lines, respectively. m is a positive integer number used to avoid masking effect by increasing its value.
By definition, locational marginal price (LMP) index for a bus is the minimum excess production cost needed to feed 1 MW extra load in the bus without violating transmission constraints, and hence it depends on the cost suggested by producers, market rules and transmission constraints. LMP is one of the most important indications of market price which illustrates a lot of information of the power market. One of the measures of competition level of the market based on LMP is to investigate the distribution of LMP. In a fully competitive market, all producers and consumers sell/buy electricity with the same price, meaning that in all buses the price is the same and price profile is completely uniform, and there is no limitation for consumers on buying electricity from any desired producer. In practice, however, due to the transmission constraints and line losses, the LMPs of the buses cannot be the same, but still a more uniform LMP profile indicates more competition in market. Here, this index is used to evaluate contingencies such that a more important contingency is defined to be the one which increases LMPs standard deviation. The distribution of bus prices is calculated as:
Where LMPi and Std represent the LMP of bus i and standard deviation, respectively.
Congestion cost is another economic index based on LMP. Transmission congestion occurs when there is not enough transmission capability to support all requests for transmission services. The congestion cost of the whole system is the summation of all congestion costs of lines. It can be calculated as:
Where LMPj1 and LMPj2 are the LMP at the two ends of the line j and Pj is the active power in line j.
The algorithm is proposed through the following steps: A large number of load patterns (active and reactive powers at all buses) are generated randomly. AC load flows is performed for all load patterns and all the single line outage contingencies and the performance indices are calculated. Three neutral networks were trained to predict LMP, voltage magnitude and voltage angle. During testing, the efficiency of each contingency was evaluated using the data envelopment analysis. The contingencies were ranked based on efficiency values.
Data envelopment analysis
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a non-parametric method that calculates the efficiency in a given set of decision-making units (DMUs). DEA measures the efficiency of a DMU with multiple inputs and outputs by ratios of weighted outputs to weighted inputs [1]. Assuming that there are n DMUs, each with m inputs and s outputs, the efficiency scores can be computed as a solution to the following linear programming (LP) problem:
Where, θ
o
: Overall efficiency (OE) of DMUs, x
kj
: Amount of input k utilized by DMU i, y
kj
: Amount of output k produced by DMU i, λ1, …, λ
n
: The weights for the inputs and outputs of the n DMUs.
This model considers Constant Returns to Scale (CRS) and it may be adapted to other returns to scale situations. Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) if the equality constrained is added to equation. The relative efficiency obtained by this method is called technical efficiency (TE). The scale efficiency (SE) can be estimated by dividing OE into TE. Non Increasing Returns to Scale (NIRS) if the equality constrained is added to equation. The nature of the scale inefficiencies (i.e., due to increasing or decreasing returns to scale) for a particular DMU can be determined by seeing whether the NIRS score is equal to the TE score. If they are unequal then increasing returns to scale (IRS) exist for the DMU. If they are equal then decreasing returns to scale (DRS) apply [3].
In this paper, the voltage violation index (PIV) and line flow violation index (PIMVA) are considered as the inputs, while outputs are the LMP index (PILMP) and congestion cost index (PICON). The efficiency of each contingency, illustrating its severity, is then calculated based on these values.
The generic diagram of the radial basis function (RBF) neutral network employed in this paper is shown in Fig. 1 [14]. The RBF model used here is composed of an input array and two layers (one hidden and one output layers). Also, in this network a Gaussian function is employed, which has the highest output when the input variables are closest to the center position and decreases monotonically as the distance from the center increases. Let Xp is the input array with component, x1p, x2p, …, x rp . The output of the ith RBF unit in the hidden layer, which is yi (Xp) can be calculated using Equation (11).

The diagram of the RBF neutral network [14].
In Equation (11), Xjp is the jth input pattern p and is the center of the ith RBF unit, Ui, for the jth input variable. Also, σi is the width of the ith RBF unit, Ui. The output layer consists of a linear combiner whose output is presented in Equation (12).
Where H is the number of hidden RBF units, Omp is the output of the mth node of output layer for pth input pattern, Wmi is the weight between ith RBF unit, Ui, and mth output node, and WmB relates to the bias in mth output node in the linear output layer.
In this paper, the orthogonal least squares (OLS) algorithm is used to train and build an RBF neutral network. OLS algorithm is a structure identification algorithm and builds a suitable network structure in an intelligent way during learning. It chooses appropriate RBF centers as neurons and trains the patterns one after the other until it reaches a specified error.
In this paper, three RBF neutral networks are designed for normal conditions and every contingency. Each input pattern includes active injection, P, in all buses except the slack bus and reactive injection, Q, in all load buses. Also, the patterns consisting of zero or constant values are excluded from the input patterns. Each input pattern [x] is represented as:
For the voltage predictor, the output vector [v] includes all the load bus voltage magnitudes:
The angle predictor builds the voltage angles [θ] in all buses except the slack bus as:
Finally, in the LMP predictor, the LMP values in all buses form the output vector [LMP]:
Where G is the generator bus, g is the number of generators in the power system, L is the load bus, n is the number of load buses and sk is the slack bus in the power system.
The proposed algorithm is tested on IEEE 30-bus power system. In this paper, only the single-line outages are considered and the RBF neutral networks are designed to estimate the post-contingency LMP, voltage magnitude, bus angles for every possible contingency in the test systems. In normal operating conditions, for each bus, 1000 load patterns were randomly generates by perturbing the load (the loads are considered as fuzzy). Similarly, for each line outages, 1000 patterns of bus injection are generated for 1000 different operating conditions in both systems. Among the 1000 produced patterns for each system, 750 patterns were randomly chosen and saved for training and the remaining 250 ones are marked to be used as test patterns.
IEEE 30-bus system
In this paper, MATLAB coding is developed to validate the proposed algorithm. There is no explicit indication of how to select weighting factors and value of exponent (m). It is observed from simulation that for m = 4 (the value of exponent), masking effect has been removed 30-bus test power system. All weighting factors are assumed to be equal.
The IEEE 30-bus system consists of 24 PQ buses, 5 PV buses, a slack bus and 41 lines. The three aforementioned neural networks for prediction of angle, LMP and voltage magnitude are designed for this system. Here, the LMP, voltage magnitude and angle predictors predict the LMP for all buses, voltage magnitude for all 24 PQ buses, and voltage angle for all buses except the slack bus, respectively. The inputs are active power for buses 2 to 30 and reactive power for all PQ buses, meaning that there are 44 elements in input patterns. If the power injection of the some buses is zero, they are not considered in the input pattern. The active and reactive powers in bus 1 are not considered as input, since it is the slack bus. Hence, the LMP predictor includes 44 and 30 neurons in the input and output layers respectively, showing the LMP values for all buses. The voltage magnitude predictor consists of 44 neurons in input layer and 24 ones in the output layer, presenting the voltage magnitudes for 24 PQ (load) buses. Similarly, the angle predictor is composed of 44 input neurons and 29 output neurons (standing for total number of 29 PV and PQ buses, except the slack bus). The proposed neural networks are tested for the entire 250 test patterns for each of the 34 outages. The maximum absolute errors in the estimated voltage magnitude and angle in each outage case are presented in Table 1. Table 1 shows that the maximum absolute errors in prediction of voltage magnitude and angle are of the order of 10–3. From Table 1, the predicted values of voltage magnitude and angle are very close to those obtained by the AC load flows. In this case, the retrained RBF neural networks in 250 test patterns were performed for each 34 feasible outages in this case.
Summary of voltage magnitude and angle maximum absolute errors for all test cases
Summary of voltage magnitude and angle maximum absolute errors for all test cases
Table 2 represents the network security and economical indices calculated for each contingency in the 30-bus system. The efficiencies of the contingencies are calculated using the data envelopment analysis which is shown in column 7 of the Table 2. The lowest and highest efficiencies correspond to the contingencies 34 (outage of the line between buses 6 and 28) and 9 (outage of the line between buses 6 and 7), respectively. The last column of Table 2 represents the ranking of all contingencies. The minimum and maximum efficiencies are 0.6619 and 1, respectively. The average efficiency for the 30-bus network is calculated to be 0.7726. In the 30-bus network, contingency 9 is the worst one.
Summarizing the results of the proposed algorithm on IEEE 30-bus system
aLO: Line outage from bus number-to bus number.
The efficiency of this contingency is 1, and it is ranked 1st, meaning that it is the strongest and worst contingency in the network based on network security and economical indices. Contingency 34 (outage of the line between buses 6 and 28) is ranked last, where the voltage violation index 15.436, line flow violation index is 101.66, the LMP index is 0.1516 and the congestion cost index is 16.554, which are much less than the ones of contingency 9. For better comparison, Fig. 2 represents the voltage violation indices of the contingencies versus their ranking. Although contingency ranked 1st (contingency 9) has the highest efficiency, Fig. 2 shows that its voltage violation index (as one of the network security indices) is less than many contingencies. The voltage violation index of contingency 28 (outage of the line between buses 23 and 24), ranked 13th, is 19.838, which is the highest voltage violation index.

Voltage violation indices of the contingencies versus their ranking for IEEE 30-bus system.
In this paper, the contingency ranking has been done by evaluating network security and economical indices. An integrated algorithm was proposed to rank the contingency using neural networks and data envelopment analysis. Initially, neural network algorithm was used to estimate magnitudes and angles of all system buses. Hence, three neural networks are represented to estimate LMPs, bus voltage magnitudes and angles in normal conditions and different contingencies in the power system. The proposed algorithm for contingency ranking is applied to IEEE 30-bus power test system. Results on IEEE test system show that predicted quantities comparable in accuracy to actual values and maximum absolute error is 10–3. The efficiency of each of these contingencies was calculated using data envelopment analysis. In this research, the voltage violation index and line flow violation index are considered as inputs, and the LMP index and congestion cost index are considered as outputs. The average efficiency for the 30-bus network is calculated to be 0.7726. The efficiency of each contingency shows its severity and indicates that it affects network security and economic indices concurrently. The proposed method is capable of producing fast and accurate network security indices and economic indices, so it can be used for online ranking.
Footnotes
Acknowledgments
This work was extracted from research entitled by ‘Contingency ranking of power system considering destroyer effect of power system with Nero-fuzzy network’, which is granted and supported by the Fars Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Fars, Iran.
