Studies on the history of statistics by MacKenzie and on quantitative geography by Barnes have suggested that the lineaments and assumptions of statistical methods such as correlation and regression are closely related to their origin in biometrics and eugenics. This paper challenges that view by examining in detail the work of George Udny Yule. Yule was a colleague of Karl Pearson in the 1890s, but was interested in social science and social policy applications, not eugenics. In the late 1890s he constructed both the theory and application of multiple regression analysis, using geographical data. The paper examines Yule's work and its context, relating it to debates on the history of statistics, and traces the subsequent early diffusion of regression and correlation into the social sciences. The paper concludes by arguing for greater recognition of Yule's pivotal role, and also for further studies on the history of quantitative social science.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AldrichJ, 1995, “Correlations genuine and spurious in Pearson and Yule”Statistical Science10364–376
2.
AldrichJ, 1998, “Doing least squares: Perspectives from Gauss and Yule”International Statistical Review6661–81
3.
BarnesT J, 1994, “Probable writing: Derrida, deconstruction, and the quantitative revolution in human geography”Environment and Planning A261021–1040
4.
BarnesT J, 1996Logics of Dislocation: Metaphors Models and Meanings of Economic Space (Guilford Press, New York)
5.
BarnesT J, 1998, “A history of regression: Actors, networks, machines, and numbers”Environment and Planning A30203–223
6.
BeniniR, 1907, “Sull'uso delle formole empiriche nell'economia applicata” [On the use of empirical forms in applied economies]Giornale degli Economisa, series 235 (November) 1053–1063
7.
BeniniR, 1908, “Una possibile creazione del metodo statistico: L'economia politica induttiva” [A possible creation of the statistical method: Inductive political economy]Giornale degli Economisa, Series 236 (January) 11–34
8.
BiddleJ, 1999, “Statistical economics 1900 – 1950”History of Political Economy31607–651
9.
BoasF, 1894, “The correlation of anatomical or physiological measurements”American Anthropologist7313–324
10.
BoasF, 1899, “The cephalic index”American Anthropologist, New Series1448–461
11.
BoothC, 1894The Aged Poor in England and Wales: Conditions (Macmillan, London)
12.
BoothC, 1896, “Poor Law statistics”Economic Journal670–74
13.
BowleyA, 1901Elements of Statistics (P S King and Son, London)
14.
BowleyA, 1908, “The improvement of economic statistics”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society71459–495
15.
BrescianiC, 1909, “Sui metodi per la misura delle correlazioni” [On methods for the measurement of correlation]Giornale degli Economisa37
16.
BulmerM, 1981, “Quantification and Chicago social science in the 1920s: A neglected tradition”Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences17312–331
17.
BulmerM, 1984The Chicago School of Sociology: Institutionalization, Diversity, and the Rise of Sociological Research (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL)
18.
CamicCXieY, 1994, “The statistical turn in American social science: Columbia University 1890 to 1915”American Sociological Review59773–805
19.
ChristC F, 1985, “Early progress in estimating quantitative economic relationships in America”American Economic Review7539–52
20.
DavidH A, 1998, “Statistics in US universities in 1933, and the establishment of the Statistical Laboratory at Iowa State”Statistical Science1366–74
21.
DavidsonR, 1985Whitehall and the Labour Problem in Late-Victorian and Edwardian Britain: A Study of Official Statistics and Social Control (Croom Helm, London)
22.
DavidsonR, 1993, “The state and social investigation in Britain 1880–1914”, in The State and Social Investigation in Britain and the United States Eds LaceyM JFurnerM O (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge) pp 242–275
23.
DaviesA, 1929, “Man's nasal index in relation to climate”Man29 (4 January) 8–13
24.
DesrosièresA, 1993La Politique des Grands Nombres: Histoire de la Raison Statistique [The politics of large numbers: A history of statistical reasoning] (Éditions La Découverte, Paris)
25.
DesrosièresA, 1998The Politics of Large Numbers: A History of Statistical Reasoning (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA)
26.
DuncanO D (Ed.), 1964William F Ogburn, On Culture and Social Change: Selected Papers (Chicago University Press, Chicago, IL)
27.
DuoQ, 1993The Formation of Econometrics: A Historical Perspective (Clarendon Press, Oxford)
28.
EdgeworthF Y, 1892, “Correlated averages”Philosophical Magazine, Series 534190–204
29.
EpsteinR J, 1987A History of Econometrics (North-Holland, Amsterdam)
30.
FarebrotherR W, 1999Fitting Linear Relationships: A History of the Calculus of Observations 1750–1900 (Springer, New York)
31.
FoxK A, 1989, “Some contributions of US agricultural economists and their close associates to statistics and econometrics 1917 – 1933”, in History and Methodology of Econometrics Eds de MarchiNGilbertC (Clarendon Press, Oxford) pp 53–70
32.
FreedmanD, 1997, “From association to causation via regression”Advances in Applied Mathematics1859–110
33.
FreedmanD, 1999, “From association to causation: Some remarks on the history of statistics”Statistical Science14243–258
34.
FroggattPNevinN C, 1971, “The ‘law of ancient heredity’ and the Mendelian – ancentrian controversy in England, 1889–1906”Journal of Medical Genetics81–36
35.
GaltonF, 1890, “Kinship and correlation”North American Review150419–431
36.
GaltonF, 1896, “Application of the method of percentiles to Mr Yule's data on the distribution of pauperism”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society59392–396
37.
GaltonF, 1908Memories of My Life (Methuen, London)
38.
HackingI, 1998, “On being more literal about construction”, in The Politics of Constructionism Eds VelodyIWilliamsR (Sage, London) pp 49–68
39.
HackingI, 1999The Social Construction of What? (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA)
40.
HeppleL W, 1998, “Context, social construction, and statistics: Regression, social science, and human geography”Environment and Planning A30225–234
41.
HerrnsteinR JMurrayC, 1994The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life (Free Press, New York)
42.
HookerR H, 1901a, “Correlation of the marriage-rate with trade”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society64485–492
43.
HookerR H, 1901b, “The suspension of the Berlin produce exchange and its effect upon corn prices”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society64574–604
44.
HookerR H, 1905, “On the correlation of successive observations, illustrated by corn price”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society68696–703
45.
IrvineJMilesIEvansJ (Eds), 1979Demystifying Social Statistics (Pluto Press, London)
46.
JonesG S, 1976Outcast London: A Study in the Relationship Between the Classes in Victorian Society (Oxford University Press, Oxford)
47.
KaergaardN, 1984, “The earliest history of econometrics: Some neglected Danish contributions”History of Political Economy16437–444
48.
KendallM G, 1952, “George Udny Yule, 1871 – 1951”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A115156–161
49.
KleinJ L, 1997Statistical Visions in Time: A History of Time series Analysis, 1662–1938 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge)
50.
LeeA, 1908, “On the manner in which the percentage of employed workmen in this country is related to the import of articles wholly or mainly manufactured”Economic Journal1896–101
51.
LenoirM, 1913Études sur la Formation et le Mouvement des Prix [Studies on the formation and movement of prices] (Giard et Brière, Paris)
52.
LochC S, 1994, Review of C Booth “The Aged Poor in England and Wales”Economic Journal4
53.
MacKenzieD, 1978, “Statistical theory and social interests: A case study”Social Studies of Science835–83
54.
MacKenzieD, 1979, “Eugenics and the rise of mathematical statistics in Britain”, in Demystifying Social Statistics Eds IrvineJMilesIEvansJ (Pluto Press, London) pp 39–50
55.
MacKenzieD, 1981Statistics in Britain 1865–1930: The Social Construction of Scientific Knowledge (Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh)
56.
MacKenzieD, 1990Inventing Accuracy: An Historical Sociology of Nuclear Missile Guidance (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA)
57.
MackenzieD, 1999, “Eugenics and the rise of mathematical statistics in Britain”, in Statistics in Society: The Arithmetic of Politics Eds DorlingDSimpsonS (Arnold, London) pp 55–61
58.
MarchL, 1905, “Comparaison numérique de courbes statistiques” [Numerical comparison of statistical curves]Journal de la Société Statistique de Paris255–277
59.
MirowskiP, 1989aMore Heat Than Light: Economics as Social Physics, Physics as Nature's Economics (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge)
60.
MirowskiP, 1989b, “The probabilistic counter-revolution, or how stochastic concepts came to neoclassical economic theory”, in History and Methodology of Econometrics Eds de MarchiNGilbertC (Clarendon Press, Oxford) pp 217–235
61.
MooreH L, 1911Laws of Wages: An Essay in Statistical Economics (Macmillan, New York)
62.
MooreH L, 1914Economic Cycles: Their Law and Cause (Macmillan, New York)
63.
MorganM S, 1990The History of Econometric Ideas (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge)
64.
NortonJ P, 1902Statistical Studies in the New York Money Market (Macmillan, New York)
65.
OgburnW F, 1919, “Analysis of the standard of living in the District of Columbia in 1916”Journal of the American Statistical Association16374–394
66.
OgburnW FTalbotN S, 1929, “A measurement of the factors in the Presidential Election of 1928”Social Forces8175–183
67.
PearsonK, 1895, “Contributions to the mathematical theory of evolution, II: Skew variation”Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A186343–414
68.
PearsonK, 1896, “Mathematical contributions to the theory of evolution, III: Regression heredity and panmixia”Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A187253–318
69.
PearsonK, 1914 – 30 The Life Letters and Labours of Francis Gallon3 volumes in 4 parts (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge)
70.
PearsonKFilonL N G, 1898, “Mathematical contributions to the theory of evolution, IV: On the probable errors of frequency constants and on the influence of random selection on variation and correlation”Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A191229–311
71.
PearsonKLeeAEldertonE M, 1910, “On the correlation of death rates”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society73534–539
72.
PorterT M, 1986The Rise of Statistical Thinking 1820–1900 (Princeton University Press Princeton, NJ)
73.
RoseM E, 1971The English Poor Law 1780–1930 (David and Charles, Newton Abbot, Devon)
74.
ScheerJ, 1999London 1900: The Imperial Metropolis (Yale University Press, New Haven, CT)
75.
SchultzH, 1923, “The elasticity of demand and the coefficient of correlation”Quarterly Journal of Economics38169–171
76.
SchultzH, 1928Statistical Laws of Demand and Supply with Special Application to Sugar (Chicago University Press, Chicago, IL)
77.
SelvinH C, 1976, “Durkheim, Booth and Yule: The non-diffusion of an intellectual innovation”Archives of European Sociology1739–51
78.
SelvinH C, 1985, “Durkheim, Booth and Yule: The non-diffusion of an intellectual innovation”, in Essays on the History of British Sociological Research Ed. BulmerM (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge) pp 70–82
79.
StiglerG J, 1954, “The early history of empirical studies of consumer behavior”Journal of Political Economy6295–113
80.
StiglerG J, 1962, “Henry L Moore and statistical economics”Econometrica301–21
81.
StiglerS M, 1986The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900 (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA)
82.
StuartAKendallM G (Eds), 1971The Statistical Papers of George Udny Yule (Griffin, London)
83.
SullivanP A, 1998, “An engineer dissects two case studies: Hayles on fluid mechanics and MacKenzie on statistics”, in A House Built on Sand: Exploding Postmodernist Myths about Science Ed. KoertgeN (Oxford University Press, New York) pp 71–98
84.
ThomasJ J, 1989, “The early history of the consumption function”, in History and Methodology of Econometrics Eds de MarchiNGilbertC (Clarendon Press, Oxford) pp 131–149
85.
XieY, 1988, “Franz Boas and statistics”Annals of Scholarship5269–296
86.
YatesF, 1952, “George Udny Yule, 1871 – 1951”Obituary Notices of Fellows of the Royal Society8309–323
87.
YuleG U, 1895, “On the correlation of total pauperism with proportion of out-relief, I: All ages”Economic Journal5603–611
88.
YuleG U, 1896a, “Notes on the history of pauperism in England and Wales from 1850, treated by the method of frequency curves; with an introduction on the method”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society59318–357
89.
YuleG U, 1896b, “Remarks on Mr Gallon's note”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society59396–398
90.
YuleG U, 1896c, “On the correlation of total pauperism with proportion of out-relief, II: Males over sixty-five”Economic Journal6613–623
91.
YuleG U, 1897a, “On the theory of correlation”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society60812–854
92.
YuleG U, 1897b, “On the significance of Bravais' formulae for regression, &c in the case of skew correlation”Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, series A60477–489
93.
YuleG U, 1899, “An investigation into the causes of changes in pauperism in England, chiefly during the last two intercensal decades, I”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society62249–295
94.
YuleG U, 1900, “On the association of attributes in statistics”Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series A194257–319
95.
YuleG U, 1907, “On the theory of correlation for any number of variables treated by a new system of notation”Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series A79182–193
96.
YuleG U, 1909a, “Les applications de la méthode de correlation aux statistiques sociales et économiques” [The applications of the method of correlation to social and economic statistics]Bulletin de l'Institut International de Statistique1265–277
97.
YuleG U, 1909b, “The applications of the method of correlation to social and economic statistics”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society72721–730
98.
YuleG U, 1911An Introduction to the Theory of Statistics1st edition (Griffin, London)
99.
YuleG U, 1920, “The wind bloweth where it listeth”Cambridge Review41184–186
100.
YuleG U1921, “On the time-correlation problem, with special reference to the variate – difference correlation method”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society84497–526
101.
YuleG U, 1926, “Why do we sometimes get nonsense correlations between time-series? A study in sampling and the nature of time-series”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society891–69
102.
YuleG U, 1927, “On a method of investigating periodicities in disturbed series, with special reference to Wolfer's sunspot numbers”Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A226267–298
103.
YuleG U, 1947, “Puyol's Classes A and B of texts of ‘De Imitatione Christi’”Recherches de Théologie Ancienne et Médiévale1465–90
