Coastal science for post-tsunami reconstruction

Abstract

Different political, economic, social and environmental factors are considered in plans for coastline reconstruction following tsunami events. These competing factors inevitably result in a compromise being made with respect to reconstruction policy and practice. Coastline reconstruction may also be constrained by availability of technology, speed of action or decision-making, local political expediency, and external influences such as disaster relief policy and the roles of NGOs. In some cases, it could be argued that such compromises result in inappropriate actions or decisions being taken that do not always consider the dynamics of coastal processes. An outcome is that expensive geoengineering structures may hinder long-term coastline recovery, and may result in future increased coastline vulnerability. Here, based on examples of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tōhoku-oki tsunamis, we argue that inappropriate reconstruction after such events may have serious long-term negative effects that can contribute to increased future risk for inhabitants of tsunami-prone coastlines.

Keywords

coastal geomorphology disaster recovery environmental management geoengineering recurrence interval tsunami

Introduction

The 10th anniversary of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami has been a time to reflect on the achievements of tsunami prediction and the scale, achievements and challenges of post-event reconstruction along impacted Indian Ocean coastlines (Chang Seng, 2013; Daly, 2014; Khasalamwa, 2009; Koria, 2009). An important measure of the success of post-tsunami reconstruction after this and other large tsunamis, such as the 2011 Tōhoku-oki event, is whether it has reduced risk and vulnerability of both coastlines and communities. In many cases, risk and vulnerability have actually increased (Silva, 2009; Suppasri et al., 2013). Significant reasons for this unfortunate outcome include the unavailability of data on past and present dynamics of tsunami-affected coasts; the considerable uncertainty involved in monitoring, modelling and predicting coastal behaviour on both the micro- and macro-scales relevant to planning and geoengineering, and the lack of professional input of coastal scientists in ongoing coastline planning and development (Lambert and Oberhaensli, 2014). In addition, there may be tensions between, first, the political expediency for decisive responses following a tsunami and, second, the need to base planning and reconstruction decisions on sound scientific evidence, including understanding coastal and nearshore processes that give rise to particular morphodynamic behaviours (Krishnamurthy et al., 2014; Samaratunge et al., 2012; Srinivas and Nakagawa, 2008). A rapidly enacted, top-down, politically driven and hard geoengineering approach to post-tsunami reconstruction (e.g. Kitzbichler, 2011; Koshimura and Shuto, 2015) – that does not consider the dynamics and uncertainties of coastal systems – can result in actions that increase not only the future risk of tsunami impacts but also the vulnerability of coastal communities to future events (Cho, 2014). This paper discusses the reasons why this situation arises and how it can be overcome, with the aim of decreasing future coastline vulnerability to high-magnitude events (and also saving billions of dollars). The context for the issues discussed in this paper is the set of principles outlined by Olsen et al. (2005) and Lambert and Oberhaensli (2014) that can help build the long-term resilience of coastal communities to tsunamis. These principles include working with, rather than against, the physical processes that shape coastlines, and consideration of the unpredictability of such processes with respect to both risk management and the impacts of post-tsunami reconstruction. In addition, the likely coastal impacts of past tsunamis may be deduced from morphological and sedimentary records, although there are limitations as to the usefulness of these records (Ambraseys and Synolakis, 2010).

Tsunamis are geohazards that can have significant and diverse effects on coastlines around seismically active ocean basins (e.g. Gopinath et al., 2014; Liew et al., 2010; Richmond et al., 2011). Although tsunami waves are relatively uniform in the open ocean and can exert similar forcings on the coasts of developed and developing countries alike, individual wave properties are modified by nearshore bathymetry and coastline geometry (Goto et al., 2011). Wave modelling cannot fully describe detailed tsunami wave behaviour (Apotsos et al., 2012) as it can for other types of ocean waves, because it cannot readily account for the fast-changing nearshore physical environment and bathymetry with which individual waves interact, including patterns of substrate erosion and deposition and co-seismic subsidence/uplift, which may significantly change coastline vulnerability even between individual tsunami waves (Apotsos et al., 2012; Paris et al., 2009). In addition, the physical geography of tsunami-prone coastlines is often poorly understood, including their bathymetric patterns and the distribution of surface sediments and ecosystems (Gopinath et al., 2014). These factors are known to greatly influence the impacts of tsunami waves (Goto et al., 2011; Mascarenhas and Jayakumar, 2008). The human environments of tsunami-prone coasts are also highly variable and may include urban areas, agriculture, and infrastructure such as port and harbour facilities (Laknath and Sasaki, 2011). This means that such coastlines exhibit a wide range of vulnerabilities with respect to their physical and human environments, and thus tsunami waves do not affect coastlines equally.

Such spatially diverse and complex impacts require an integrated and sustained management response for post-tsunami reconstruction that incorporates the requirements and development imperatives for individual regions, countries and communities (e.g. Olsen et al., 2005; Pasupuleti, 2013; Sonak et al., 2008; Wiek et al., 2010). However, lack of coherent and integrated planning because of poor understanding of coastal dynamic behaviour over different scales can both hinder rapid post-tsunami recovery and make these coastlines more vulnerable to future events. As a result, politicians and planners sometimes make poor decisions which can have significant and unanticipated negative consequences for coasts and communities. Here, we discuss the impacts of and post-event management responses to the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tōhoku-oki tsunamis, with the aim of evaluating how coastal science has been used in the different post-tsunami reconstruction strategies in these two regions, and the extent to which the record of past tsunamis can guide these strategies.

Reconstruction after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami resulted in diverse physical, environmental and socioeconomic impacts along different coastline types and affected numerous developing nations’ coasts (Bird et al., 2007; Horton et al., 2008). Increased urbanization along these coasts enhances the risk to communities and the built environment of tsunamis and storms. Managers often base risk assessments of different coastal hazards on the power-law magnitude–frequency relationships exhibited by datasets of storm wave height or sea-level exceedance (Burbidge et al., 2008; Prerna et al., 2015). However, tsunami waves do not follow this magnitude–frequency relation, and thus it cannot be used to calculate the frequency or return period of tsunamis based on the historic or observational record, or to identify hazard risk based on run-up elevation alone (Nirupama, 2009). There is low preservation potential of wave-deposited sediments, especially near the landward limit of run-up from which past wave height and power can be most accurately evaluated (Chagué-Goff et al., 2015; Hori et al., 2007). As such, key decisions on risk evaluation and emergency planning are often based on a lack of past data, on lack of understanding of spatial and temporal variability of tsunami waves, or on data of dubious quality. Thus, evaluations of coastline vulnerability are problematic and subject to high error because of the wide range of physical and human variables that are involved (e.g. Løvholt et al., 2014; Siebeneck et al., 2015). Such uncertainty has hampered reconstruction and future risk mitigation efforts on coastlines affected by the Indian Ocean tsunami, in particular where NGOs, national and local governments, communities and individuals, and their differing priorities, come into conflict (Chang Seng, 2013; Daly, 2014; Pasupuleti, 2013).

After tsunamis have struck vulnerable coastlines, politicians, planners and managers are concerned with the reconstruction and rebuilding of urban infrastructure including key services, industry, housing and other elements of coastal urban fabric (Guarnacci, 2012; Koria, 2009). To achieve this, they often have to deal with removal of large volumes of wave-transported debris, contaminated water and land, displaced people and accompanying socioeconomic and political problems, which may extend over decades and well beyond the timescale of physical reconstruction. Reconstruction has therefore focused on short- and medium-term socio-political needs, including economic recovery, issues of equity in reconstruction, and civic participation (Arlikatti and Andrew, 2012; Charlesworth, 2008; Cho, 2014; Wiek et al., 2010). By contrast, reconstruction planning and policy tends to view coastlines as immobile and unchanging systems and that tsunamis do not have significant long-term impacts on the ways in which these coastal systems work. This is a false assumption. The wish to return the geography of coastlines to how they were before the tsunami is not based on sound science, but is more a political statement of intent and the psychology of disaster response that requires order and control, rather than political disorder or inaction, or being seen to be at the mercy of natural and thus uncontrollable processes of long-term coastal change. For example, rebuilding of urban infrastructure following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami has in many cases largely followed the pattern and design of previous plans, including in street layout and service provision (Charlesworth, 2008; Samaratunge et al., 2012). Reconstruction has also been piecemeal and has been concerned with developing and enhancing tourist and economic activities rather than on supporting community-based resilience and reconstruction (Guarnacci, 2012; Laknath and Sasaki, 2011; Mulligan et al., 2012; Pasupuleti, 2013). In other cases, there have been changes in building codes as a result of mapped variations in damage intensity, and these new codes have potential to increase the resilience of the built environment (Arlikatti and Andrew, 2012; Shrestha et al., 2013). Impacts on communities are wide ranging in terms of socioeconomic and cultural effects. Displacement of communities, changes in social structures, and health and psychological impacts of affected people, however, are unknown long-term effects and may have significant negative consequences for future community resilience (Mulligan, 2013; Vale, 2014; Wiek et al., 2010).

A key unknown component in post-tsunami reconstruction in the Indian Ocean region is the applicability of existing governance and management frameworks to plan for and enact integrated approaches to reconstruction and spatial and urban planning, and to increase the future resilience of urban infrastructure and communities (Arlikatti and Andrew, 2012; Chang Seng, 2013; Cho, 2014; Guarnacci, 2012; Kennedy et al., 2008). There are also tensions between existing governance frameworks of tsunami-affected coasts and the roles of NGOs and international aid and governance structures, which may result in uncoordinated and contradictory reconstruction plans and behaviours (Athukorala, 2012; Khasalamwa, 2009; Klitzsch, 2014; Korf et al., 2010; Raju and Becker, 2013; Silva, 2009).

Reconstruction in Japan after the 2011 Tōhoku-oki tsunami

Reconstruction of the developed coastline of eastern Japan, following the 2011 Tōhoku-oki tsunami, provides an alternative viewpoint of post-tsunami planning and management. Here, experts recognize that it is not feasible to build seawalls capable of resisting a future tsunami of equivalent magnitude (Koshimura and Shuto, 2015). The cost of reconstruction in eastern Japan over the next 10 years is estimated at US$285 billion (Normile, 2012; Suppasri et al., 2012). It has been suggested that seawalls could be reconstructed farther inland than pre-tsunami coastlines so that beaches can respond over longer timeframes (Normile, 2012). This approach assumes that long-term recovery will take place, despite the coastline having changed significantly in morphology and bathymetry (Mori et al., 2013; Richmond et al., 2012). What all of these reconstruction efforts fail to consider is that the impacts of Tōhoku-oki may represent the passing of an environmental threshold, and that our previous understanding of coastline dynamics in any one locality may no longer apply in a post-tsunami world (e.g. Goff et al., 2014; Lazarus, 2014).

A change in the workings of coastal systems makes long-term coastal recovery harder to predict and manage (Goff et al., 2016). For example, the Mw 9.0 Tōhoku-oki earthquake caused unprecedented ground shaking that generated over 3400 landslides within 200 km of the epicentre alone (Wartman et al., 2013). These inland landslides did not have a uniform spatial pattern and varied in size, depth and impact on other landscape elements, such as rivers (Miyagi et al., 2011). This seismic driver of regional landscape change has significant implications for coastal environments (Goff and McFadgen, 2002; Goff et al., 2008), in which landslide-derived sediment transported to the coast by rivers can cause a decadal-scale period of river avulsion, coastal dune ridge formation and coastline progradation. Such seismic forcing has been noted in the behaviour of many coastlines worldwide (e.g. Carter et al., 2010; Goodbred and Kuehl, 2000; Juhasz et al., 2007). The Sendai plain and similar lowland depocentres in northern Honshu (Japan) preserve a 5000-year record of such seismically driven progradation (Goff and Sugawara, 2014). Indeed, the beach ridge related to the AD 869 Jōgan tsunami is now marooned at least 1 km inland on the Sendai Plain (Goff and Sugawara, 2014), and a tsunami of this size was estimated to have a recurrence interval of around 1000 years (Minoura et al., 2001). Ignoring the net geomorphological signatures of past threshold changes risks viewing tsunami reconstruction as a simple engineering problem, uninformed by the past. Ignoring the dynamics of coastal systems risks compounding the impacts of tsunamis with ill-considered, short-term engineering responses. For example, seawalls on the Sendai Plain are constructed with heights that correspond with an approximate 1:100 year recurrence interval of nearshore wave heights, and are built with a limited lifespan (of 50–100 years) (Tanaka et al., 2012). This may be an inappropriate design specification for combating tsunami waves which do not follow this magnitude–frequency relationship (such as the Jōgan tsunami) and which do not have a specified recurrence interval. Based on dating of buried sediments on the Sendai Plain, tsunamis and the size of the 2011 Tōhoku-oki event are considered to have a recurrence interval of as short as 500 years (e.g. Sawai et al., 2015) (Table 1), but this is based on back-of-envelope calculations and clearly does not correspond with seawall specifications (see wider discussion in Koshimura and Shuto, 2015).

Table 1.

Examples of calculations of tsunami recurrence intervals from the Japan and Indian Ocean regions.

Location	Recurrence interval (years)	Length of record over which recurrence interval applies	Evidence on which calculated recurrence interval is based	Source
Ryukyu Islands, Japan	150–400	2400 years total duration	Radiocarbon dating of Porites boulders	Araoka et al. (2013)
Hokkaido, Japan	365–553	From present to ~4000 BP	Radiocarbon dating of organic debris, tephrochronology	Nanayama et al. (2007)
Hokkaido, Japan	Mean of 400	200–6000 BP	Radiocarbon dating of organic debris	Sawai et al. (2009)
Sendai, Japan	557–585	Between AD 869 and 2011	Radiocarbon dates on diatoms within sand sheets	Sawai et al. (2015)
Sri Lanka	Mean of 434 ± 40	~4000–7000 BP	Radiocarbon dating on in situ organic sediments	Jackson et al. (2014)
Thailand	Mean of 550	From present to ~2100 BP	Luminescence dating of sand sheets	Prendergast et al. (2012)

Currently, most areas of Japan that were affected by the Tōhoku-oki tsunami are constructing higher seawalls in the same places as they were previously (Figure 1a), with areas landward of the seawalls being designated for specific land uses such as forestry to reduce the risk to communities (Iuchi et al., 2013; Miyawaki, 2014) (Figure 1b and c). While technically and socially commendable, defining the coastline and associated land uses through hard engineering structures does not address the long-term effects of threshold changes in coastal systems (Lazarus, 2014; Suppasri et al., 2013). If seismically triggered sediment pulses result in a rapidly prograding and potentially unstable coastline (Goff and Sugawara, 2014; Goff et al., 2016), this will reduce the short-term need for higher reconstructed seawalls and barriers, but will require a significant re-evaluation of the purpose, urban fabric and cohesion of coastal communities, which cannot be so easily engineered (Cho, 2014).

Figure 1.

(a) Part of a 31.8-km-long and 7.2-m-high seawall near Iwanuma City, Sendai Bay, Japan. Note the lower post-tsunami land surface elevation (right of seawall) relative to the post-tsunami recovery beach level (left of seawall), which makes the coastal plain vulnerable to overtopping and flooding. The position of the Millennium Hope Hills (c and d) is indicated by arrows. (b) Models of post-tsunami reconstruction land-use along different sectors of the eastern Japan coast, using higher ground and/or barriers to reduce risk to coastal communities (Norio, 2015). (c) Plans for seawall reconstruction at Iwanuma City, based on replanting of coastal forest (Ono et al., 2014). (d) Building a series of artificial hills (8 m high) using recycled tsunami debris. This area, called the ‘Millennium Hope Hills’, will be a memorial park, an evacuation point and will help the new seawall reduce tsunami wave energy before reaching the populated area behind (Kobayashi et al., 2014).

Coastal science approaches to post-tsunami reconstruction

Post-tsunami reconstruction needs to consider the dynamics of coastal systems as part of an integrated response to tsunamis (Liew et al., 2010; Otero et al., 2014; Sonak et al., 2008). Sediments that have been eroded and redeposited inland, or moved alongshore or across-shore by tsunami waves, are subsequently reworked by coastal processes and fluvial backwash through enlarged estuaries and river channel systems (Choowong et al., 2009; Goto et al., 2011). Steepened shoreface and nearshore gradients (Kuriyama et al., 2014) also drive system feedbacks through changes in patterns of coastal geomorphology and sedimentary processes that may take days to decades to achieve quasi-equilibrium with respect to present coastal forcings, and which is unlikely to return coastline geography to pre-tsunami conditions (Apotsos et al., 2012; Catalán et al., 2014; Paris et al., 2009; Yunus Ali and Narayana, 2015). As a result, there is a strong disjunct between coastal system dynamics and length scale of tsunami response, and top-down reconstruction planning which does not consider long-term post-tsunami coastal changes for guiding strategic planning.

Reconstruction planning, informed by an understanding of coastal systems and reinforced by physical modelling of land and sea sediment dynamics, can potentially save billions of dollars in reconstruction costs, increase coastline resilience, and reduce vulnerability to future events (Lambert and Oberhaensli, 2014; Olsen et al., 2005). By contrast, purposeful engineering of tsunami-affected coastlines is hugely expensive and, in the case of Japan, may in places put additional millions of people at risk by artificially modifying the geomorphic thresholds of coastal systems. Thus, current post-tsunami reconstruction strategies may be based more on the exercise of political will and geoengineering expertise than on sound coastal science.

Limitations of the tsunami palaeo-record

Over the last decade there has been an increased interest in identifying and dating sediments deposited by past tsunamis (Dawson and Stewart, 2007; Goff et al., 2012). In turn, evaluation of tsunami risk is based largely upon knowledge of the timing and impacts of these past events (Ambraseys and Synolakis, 2010; Goff et al., 2011; Nirupama, 2009). It is well known that, unlike modern instrumental earthquake catalogues, the magnitude–frequency of palaeo-earthquakes derived from geological and modelling data does not follow the straight-line Gutenberg–Richter relation (Abaimov et al., 2008). This is also likely the case for seismogenic tsunamis, the magnitude–frequency relations of which are even more strongly affected by lack of data and by the quick-changing complexities of the nearshore/land surface with which tsunami waves interact (e.g. Geist and Parsons, 2011; Gusiakov, 2011; Kaistrenko, 2014). Any assessment of tsunami recurrence interval is inevitably based on interpretations from single, isolated preserved sedimentary sequence, across a wide region, and reliance on single radiometric dates (and associated errors) of single data points (Andrade et al., 2014). Calculations of recurrence intervals based on these data should at best be considered as back-of-envelope estimates and at worse as non-scientific scaremongering. Several examples of recurrence interval calculations exist from the Japan and Indian Ocean regions (Table 1) clustering, broadly, around 400 years. However, each fault segment is likely to give rise to different magnitude–frequency relations and different tsunami recurrence intervals (Komatsubara and Fujiwara, 2007; Minoura et al., 2001), and recurrence intervals cannot be usefully used in either a predictive or a management context, although they may broadly guide geoengineering specifications (Koshimura and Shuto, 2015).

There are also limitations as to the use of hindcast models of individual tsunami events, however, because these are usually based on impacts at specific locations, calibrated by local records of run-up length and/or recorded wave heights (e.g. Chen et al., 2014; Lane et al., 2013; Nandasena et al., 2013). As such, the models may not be easily portable to other locations, and they show variable modelling success (Allen and Greenslade, 2013), with key areas of uncertainty including parameterization of buildings, vegetation and nearshore coastal dynamics. Modelling of tsunami wave run-up distance across simplified coasts shows more promise as a tool to assess risk based on different wave height scenarios across large regions (e.g. Ioualalen et al., 2010; Srivihok et al., 2014), and this can be used to guide reconstruction practice irrespective of any calculations of recurrence interval.

These limitations of the record of past events mean that it is difficult to learn lessons with respect to tsunami properties (intensity, location) and, in turn, to use these to inform on the likely dynamics and impacts of future tsunamis. As such, today’s post-tsunami reconstruction efforts are based on incomplete and in some cases incorrect knowledge, and tensions exist between science, government, geoengineering and international pressures (e.g. Løvholt et al., 2014). A better understanding of coastal science along tsunami-prone coasts can inform on coastal dynamics, better geoengineering practice, more efficient and safer emergency evacuation routes, more cost-effective reconstruction, and better evaluation of risk zones. These are critically needed if future tsunami risk and vulnerability are to be decreased.

Footnotes

Acknowledgements

We thank editor Alastair Dawson and an anonymous reviewer for their very useful comments.

Funding

The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.

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